Hariharan's Intelligence blog
Thursday, 3 September 2026
Sri Lanka's living, dead and disappeared
Tuesday, 4 August 2026
Restructuring of Sri Lanka armed forces
Col R Hariharan | Sri Lanka Strategic Perspectives, July 2026 | www.security-risk.com
During the nearly three decades of fighting Tamil separatists and two insurrections by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), the Sri Lanka armed forces had expanded. In three years of the final instalment of the Eelam, the Sri Lankan Armed Forces had employed approximately 300,000 to 450,000 personnel (across all branches of uniformed forces) to crush around 20,000 cadres of the LTTE.
When President Mahinda Rajapaksa was elected in 2005, military strength was only 125,000. However, by the time the last Eelam war ended in May 2009, the Army had tripled its strength. As the LTTE had a sea presence, the Sri Lanka Navy had expanded to about 48,000 personnel. Sri Lanka Air Force had roughly 28,000 to 30,000 personnel involved in the war. During the final offensive, the SLAF provided vital close-air support and reconnaissance. Nearly 80,000 paramilitary personnel including the Police, the Home Guards etc, were also involved in the final episode of Eelam war.
As the LTTE enigma continued to haunt Sri Lanka politics both internally and externally, Sri Lanka government did not make any serious effort to prune its bloated armed forces. In fact, the country did the exact opposite: it continued to recruit new personnel, maintained a massive standing military, and progressively increased its defence spending during peacetime.
When the island nation was going broke from months of food and fuel shortages in January 2023, the Ranil Wickremesinghe government announced that Sri Lanka will slash its army by a third to 135,000 personnel by 2024. The aim was to reduce it to 100,000 by 2030, the state minister of defence has said, as the country tried to cut costs.
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, while addressing the Galle District Special Co-ordination Committee Meeting held on July 28, said four months after presenting a budget, it was not justifiable, from the perspective of the public, to allocate a larger share of resources towards maintaining Government operations. Accordingly, he noted the recurrent expenditure, which currently stands at 9%, while increasing capital expenditure, currently at 4%, to support greater investment in development.
The President further stated that plans are in place to allocate Rs.2 trillion for capital expenditure in 2027, representing an increase of approximately 40%.
President Dissanayaka was referring to Sri Lanka's 2026 national budget which was approved by the Parliament on 5 December 2025. In the approved estimates for the financial year 2026, total government expenditure is projected at SLRs 8.9tn ($30bn) for the year. This represents an increase of 1.6% as compared to the 2025 budget. Of the total, recurrent expenditure is estimated at SLRs 5.7tn ($19.1bn) and capital expenditure at SLRs3.3tn ($10.9bn).
Most of the Ministry of Defence budget goes for recurrent expenditure, and this year $1.29 billion was allocated for that purpose. Only about $203 million has been allocated for capital expenditure. The bulk of the Ministry of Public Security budget (about $540 million) has also been earmarked for recurrent expenses.
During his speech in Parliament as the Minister of Defence, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake said that his government is committed to the decision taken by the previous government to reduce troop numbers.
“Our vision is to develop a technologically advanced military with a smaller yet more effective force by 2030. We plan to limit the size of our army to 100,000, the Air Force to 18,000, and the Navy to 40,000,” he said.
Progress in manpower reductions
Sri Lanka has made considerable progress in the military downsizing and technological modernization blueprint it had announced in January 2023. Though the blueprint was designed to pull the nation out of its worst financial crisis, its aim was to convert the bloated civil-war era armed forces into a streamlined, high-tech defence asset by 20230.
In a small country like Sri Lanka, armed forces are a source of government employment. So to prevent mass unemployment and social destabilisation that follows, the Ministry of Defence is said to have avoided haphazard layoffs. Instead, natural retirements and a strict attrition-based hiring freeze is being followed. This has enabled the intake of recruits to be kept below the number of outgoing retirees.
The structural changes follow a phased implementation schedule to achieve the aim by 2030. This involves aggressively trimming personnel costs, which had historically accounted for half of the entire public safety bill.
According to reports the Army has successfully met its interim target of shrinking active strength from over 200,000 personnel to 135,000. The final objective will be to further tighten it to 100,000 soldiers by 2030.
On the other hand, the Navy and the Air Force do not face such giant cuts. They have to systematically rebalance their rank and file. The SLN is on track to maintain a streamlined force of 40,000 sailors. The Air Force, on the other hand is settling roughly 18,000 to 30,000 to focus on Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) for maritime patrolling and anti-piracy operations.
Budget realities of technological modernisation
According to the restructuring blueprint, the money saved from wages was to fund technical upgrades. However, the realities of the domestic fiscal state with currency fluctuations and rising cost of defence modernization has resulted in increased defence allocations to SLRs 437 billion. This has made Sri Lanka heavily rely on international partnership.
Luckily, Sri Lanka enjoys a lot of international goodwill that has enabled it to acquire capital equipment as bilateral aid. India has provided a $5 million defence aid package for supply of advanced military stores, a trauma care system and vehicle fleets. India has also replaced a Navy Dornier maritime surveillance aircraft to boost its aerial surveillance of its EEZ.
The US has completed a $3 million equipment transfer to SLAF delivering critical air mobility gear, C-130 aircraft spares and paving the way for Beechcraft King Air 360 ER aircraft integration to enhance maritime security.
China’s strategy
While Western nations and India have focused on providing Sri Lanka modern maritime surveillance assets, Beijing has adopted a multi-pronged approach to Sri Lanka armed forces downsizing and technological modernisation. The three facets of China’s role are economic facilitation, hardware supply and extensive military training.
China is Sri Lanka’s largest single bilateral creditor in 2022; so China’s agreement to restructure its debt enabled Sri Lanka to secure a $2.9 billion bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).This indirectly helped Sri Lanka to go through its armed forces reform.
Sri Lanka is dependent upon China for affordable, high-end defence hardware. This has enabled SLN to go ahead with naval fleet upgrades. For instance China delivered additional Type 053H2G frigates under a special transfer of technology arrangement. These are vital for Sri Lanka to patrol sea lanes of communication and prevent smuggling. SLAF has inducted China-built Harbin Y-12 IV aircraft to maintain tactical mobility with a smaller standing workforce.
China has continued to provide direct material aid. These include a RMB 10 million ($1.4 million) supply package to the Ministry of Defence to subsidize its operational equipment cost. As Sri Lanka Army downsizes its personnel toward the 100,000 strength, it requires a highly specialized, technically capable officer corps to operate its modernizing systems. China has stepped in to fill this training gap: China has absorbed a "considerable number" of junior, middle-grade, and senior Sri Lankan military officers into its defence academies for advanced technological and strategy courses.
The President has the thankless task of pruning the bloated armed forces, while it continues to be relevant to the dynamic changes taking place in the strategic sphere. But downsizing an army is a delicate task, particularly if one wants it to be ready to perform in a sensitive strategic zone like the Indian Ocean.
I hope President Dissanayaka remembers what US Army General Omar Bradley said on handling armed forces. He said, "An army is a delicate mechanism, not a mechanical structure that can be easily dismantled and rebuilt. You cannot prune the armed forces without weakening the entire defence posture of a nation.”
[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Website: https://.col.hariharan@net Email:haridirect@gmail.com,]
Saturday, 4 July 2026
Sri Lanka: Coming to Terms with Corruption
Col R
Hariharan | Sri Lanka Strategic Perspectives, June 2026| | www.security-risk.com
The
month end saw Daily Mirror blaring “More arrests of lawyers, politicians
and senior police officers are likely in the near future” following the arrest
of Nadun Chinthaka Wickramaratne alias Harak Kata and the uncovering of his
criminal network. His deeply entrenched criminal network centred around
notorious drug kingpin highlights a dangerous nexus between transnational
narcotics syndicates and state-level political corruption. Harak Kata is said
to be heading a multi-million-dollar drug trafficking syndicate operating
across Dubai, Malaysia, Singapore, the Maldives, and Madagascar, according to
Ceylon Today.
Harak
Kata’s dubious history defies Bollywood anti-heroes stereotyped in the OTT movies.
He was initially detained at Dubai International Airport in August 2022 for
using a forged passport. However, Dubai authorities released him in October
2022 thanks to systemic delays in processing his deportation paperwork.
However, Madagascar law enforcement is said to have arrested Harak Kata and his
primary bodyguard, Kudu Salindu at an airport in March 2023 after Interpol
issued a Red Corner notice. He was promptly extradited back to Sri Lanka under
the custody of the Criminal Investigation Department (CID).
In the
meanwhile, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake was elected and his administration
energized stalled anti-corruption investigations. In late June 2026, the Commission
to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption (CIABOC) is said to have exposed
a massive bribery conspiracy aimed at sabotaging Harak Kata's
detention. The CIABOC and the CID are now jointly conducting investigations
into the case. The arrest and remand of three more individuals - Rakitha
Rajapaksa, the son of former Justice Minister
Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe, Charith Abeysinghe - a former Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) organizer - and former Director of the Civil Aviation Authority Aruna Sri Chathuranga, connected to the case has sent shock waves across the country.
According
to documents submitted in the Court in March 2023, the three individuals flew to
Dubai to meet Harak Kata’s wife. They are alleged to have demanded a LKR 500
million ($1.5 million) bribe to revoke Harik Kata’s detention order, release
from the Boosa High-Security Prison, and arrange his flight out of the country.
An advance of LKR 120 million was said to have been transacted.
Adding
to the scandal is Harak Kata’s allegation to the Terrorist Investigation
Division (TID) that his detention was a direct retaliation for his refusal to
pay a separate LKR 300 million bribe. The bribe was demanded by former Public
Security Minister Tiran Alles and suspended Inspector General of Police (IGP)
Deshabandu Tennakoon.
More
scams in the offing
Harak
Kata’s is only one of the scams surfacing during the month. CIABOC has arrested
Shyamila Perera for alleged corruption during her tenure as Chairperson of the
National Lotteries Board.
An
officer serving as a senior assistant secretary attached to the Parliamentary
and Cabinet Affairs Division of the Presidential Secretariat has been arrested.
He had previously been working as a deputy controller of the Foreign Missions
Division of the Department of Immigration and Emigration. He had allegedly
helped underworld criminal ‘Karandeniye Raju’, to obtain a passport under a
different name while serving in the Immigration Department in 2023.
Overhauling
the system
President Anura Kumara Dissanayaka has vowed to end corruption. It is not going to be an easy task when political corruption permeates the system. To prevent politicians exploiting systemic weaknesses, requires a comprehensive shift from ad-hoc enforcement to structural institutional immunity. It must systematically block vulnerabilities within the system. There is enough material available with global NGOs and international bodies like Transparency International, IMF and World Bank.
First
and foremost, political influence must be stripped from oversight bodies. This
wouldrequire depoliticising CIABOC from executive or political influence. Temporary secondment of police
personnel to the anti-corruption commission has to be halted. Instead induct
specialised forensic accountants, digital investigators, and tax auditors
permanently.
Empower
the Proceeds of Crime Recovery and Management Authority to independently freeze,
forfeit, and manage stolen public assets without waiting for lengthy political
trials to finish.
Government
procurement and State owned enterprises (SOE) are sources of corruption.
Enact
a public procurement law, particularly in infrastructure and state contracts.
Enforce open bidding of tenders and follow a unified legal framework to ensure
it.
Replace
manual discretion-based permit and licensing systems with automated digitaworkflows.
Already this is in force in CIABOC; it introduced a digital case-file tracking
system to eliminate file tampering and ensure workflow transparency.
Restructure
state enterprises like Ceylon Petroleum Corporation or Sri Lankan Airlines to halt
their usual practice of treating large SOEs as tools of political patronage.
Install independent, performance-tied boards for their healthy performance.
Securing
fiscal and revenue integrity is important for corruption free administration.
This requires stable tax administration; so, the practice of granting ad hoc
exemptions to tax laws to return political favours should be avoided.
The
databases of the Inland Revenue Department, Sri Lanka Customs, and the Department
of Motor Traffic should be interlinked. This would help digital
cross-referencing to prevent politicians and high-net-worth individuals from
masking illegal earnings and tax avoidance.
Political
and Constitutional reforms
Perhaps
the most difficult part of ensuring a corruption-free administration facing President
Dissanayaka will be political and constitutional reforms. The Election
Commission should be empowered to strictly monitor and audit campaign spending.
This will reduce political corruption behind elections. Ensure the asset
verification provisions of the Anti-Corruption Act No 9 (2023).
Tail
piece: Abolish executive presidency
Lastly,
abolish executive overreach by limiting or eliminating the concentrated powers
of the Executive Presidency as promised before the election by President
Dissanayaka. If the President does it, his credibility will get a boost. It
will also pave the way to restore the system of checks and balances between the
parliament, the judiciary and independent commissions. But only AKD has the
answer!
[Col R Hariharan VSM, a
retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of
intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is
associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Website:
https://.col.hariharan@net Email:haridirect@gmail.com,]
Wednesday, 3 June 2026
Will Vijay as Tamil Nadu CM impact India-Sri Lanka relations?
Col R Hariharan | Sri Lanka Strategic Perspectives, May 2026| www.security-risk.com
Tamil Nadu politics is very closely followed in Sri Lanka. Of course, this is to be expected given the close cultural and historic links among the people living only 40 km across the Palk Straits. More importantly, among the people of Tamil Nadu, there is widespread support for Sri Lanka Tamils' quest for equity, particularly during the Eelam wars.
In the Tamil Nadu elections for the state assembly held in May 2026, belying most of the poll forecasters, the actor-turned politician Vijay (Joseph Vijay in real world) led the two-year old Thamizhaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) to win the largest number of seats (108) – just 5 short of absolute majority in the 224-member Tami Nadu assembly. Ultimately, Vijay was sworn in as Chief Minister after he satisfied the governor that he had majority support.
CM Vijay is likely to enjoy a better equation with the Centre and PM Narendra Modi than MK Stalin whose DMK was a leading member of the INDIA opposition group.
The election of TVK as the single largest party and the political machinations that followed before TVK could form the government have shown the following home truths on Tamil Nadu politics:
· Charisma still counts over Ideology in Tamil Nadu. TVK’s rise shows that voters can rally behind a personality-driven movement even without a coherent ideological framework. Traditional Dravidian parties- DMK, AIADMK, MDMK etc – need to recognize the limitations of their Dravidian doctrinal. Charismatic Vijay has shown a mix of social justice added to celebrity appeal can mobilize mass support faster than Dravidian doctrine.
· Youth power to the fore: The TVK leader has appealed to young voters and women voters by addressing specific issues of crimes against women, spread of drugs due to corrupt policing and spread of alcoholism due to state-controlled TASMAC vends. In an era Gen-A is busy with online with reels and Instagram, young leaders of TVK were probably more adept in using the online media to reach first time voters. The youthful flavour of TVK’s campaign seems to have worked in favour of TVK rather than the Dravidian duopoly dominated by older leadership.
· Anti-Incumbency still dominates: There is no doubt that DMK faced strong anti-incumbency backlash, with voters seeking alternatives outside the Dravidian duopoly. The sidelining of the two major Dravidian parties, both with a long record in government, showed voters prefer good governance more than ideology.
· Dravidian consensus: TVK’s victory has shown the fragmentation of Dravidian consensus that dominated TN politics. Political parties will have to refurbish their Dravidian-centric dialogue relevant to the 21st century on social justice, reservations and welfare debates as TVK has done.
Issues that affect India-Sri Lanka relations
The TVK’s election also reflects the generational change across the Palk Strait where young Tamil voters, especially urban and semi-urban, are less emotionally tied to the Sri Lankan Tamil struggle than earlier generations. Probably, it also reflects the geo-political fatigue over the long fought civil war in Sri Lanka, wiping out two generations of Tamils. In short, the Sri Lankan Tamil Cause in Tamil Nadu has transited from an election mobilizing issue to a symbolic heritage issue. President AK Dissanayaka should use this opportunity to improve relations with Tamil Nadu which is clocking around 12 percent in India’s development agenda. As a first measure he will have to offer some visible concessions on the contentious Tamil issue (see below) before inviting CM Vijay to Colombo, as a reflection of his good will towards Tamils.
There are two hardy perennial Tamil issues that affect India-Sri Lanka relations: one relates to Tamil politics in Sri Lanka, while the other affects Tamil Nadu politics.
Full powers for Provincial Councils.
PM Modi has been repeatedly harping on Sri Lanka giving full powers to Provincial Councils created under 13th Amendment to the Sri Lanka Constitution in accordance with Indo-Sri Land Accord 1987. It is high time the ruling NPP took a decision on this which does not require constitutional amendment. This will improve the image of the NPP not only in Northern and Eastern provinces, but in Tamil Nadu as well.
Indo-Sri Lanka Maritime issues
There are three components to the maritime domain between India and Sri Lanka. These relate to traditional fishing rights along the Gulf of Mannar claimed by Tamil Nadu on the Sri Lankan side of the International Maritime Boundary (IMB) between the two countries. Sri Lanka’s ownership of Katchatheevu, an islet falling on the Sri Lanka side of the IMB. Use of bottom trawling by Tamil Nadu fishing trawlers despite the ban in Sri Lanka is yet another issue. This has resulted in wiping out of fauna and flora along Sri Lankan and Indian coasts. This has led to apprehension of Tamil Nadu fishermen in the Gulf of Mannar by the Sri Lankan Navy with their trawlers and nets, which continues.
In answer to a Rajya Sabha question the MEA of India last year said, “Indian fishermen are arrested from time to time by Sri Lankan authorities for allegedly crossing the IMB and fishing in Sri Lankan waters. The IMB was agreed upon between the Governments of India and Sri Lanka in 1974. The then-State Government of Tamil Nadu was consulted by the Union Government before its finalization. Another agreement in 1976, through a formal exchange of letters by the then-Union Government and its Sri Lankan counterpart, stipulated that the fishing vessels and fishermen of India shall not engage in fishing in the historic waters, the territorial sea and the exclusive zone of Sri Lanka.”
The Government has said “since 2014, endeavoured to address the livelihood interests of our fishing community and its humanitarian aspects. The Government has been consistently taking up these issues, including the early release and repatriation of Indian fishermen and fishing boats, as well as the fines imposed, with the Sri Lankan Government through bilateral mechanisms, diplomatic channels, and various official interactions.
According to the MEA, “Prime Minister in his recent meetings with the Sri Lankan President (05 April 2025) and Prime Minister (17 October 2025) conveyed that this issue may be considered purely on humanitarian and livelihood grounds and that the use of force should be avoided under all circumstances. Concerted efforts of the Government have so far resulted in the release and repatriation of 3642 Indian fishermen since May 2014.”
The TVK party holds a strong Tamil-nationalist stance on maritime and fishing specific issues related to Sri Lanka. TVK asserts that Katchatheevu is India's rightful land. Vijay has repeatedly demanded that the Central government permanently retrieve the islet from Sri Lanka to halt the ongoing crisis affecting Tamil Nadu fishermen. As a temporary measure to protect fishing communities, TVK has urged PM Narendra Modi to negotiate 99-year lease of the islet. Sri Lanka President might explore this issue as a goodwill gesture to partly defuse the issue. This could encourage further Tamil Nadu investment in Sri Lanka.
These measures are unlikely to provide a lasting solution as the fishermen issue is much more than Kachchatheevu. It has its roots in Indian fishermen bottom trawling in Sri Lankan waters that has resulted in unsustainable exploitation of fisheries, and the crossing of the maritime boundary. Unless these are addressed there is little hope of resolving the issues permanently.
Priorities of CM Vijay
Right now, CM Vijay’s priority is survival of the TVK government. The DMK will be happy to bring down the TVK government when the split votes in AIADMK who supported the TVK, is resolved to TVK's detriment. We can expect CM Vijay to politically strengthen the TVK government in the next six months. We can expect him to take up Sri Lanka related issues thereafter. The uncertainty in politics is common. As British Prime Ministeri Harold Wilson noted "a week is a long time in politics" given how rapidly power dynamics, public opinions and national fortunes can shift.
[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Website: https://.col.
Saturday, 9 May 2026
ஆபரேஷன் சிந்தூர் - நாம் கற்றதும், கல்லாததும்
கர்னல் ஆர் ஹரிஹரன்
பாகிஸ்தானை எதிர்த்து இந்திய ராணுவப் படைகள் கடந்த ஆண்டு மே மாதத்தில்
தொடுத்த ஆபரேஷன் சிந்தூர் 1971-ல் இந்தியா நடத்திய போருக்கு பிறகு நடத்திய மிகப்பெரிய போராகும்.
மே 6 மற்றும் மே 10, 2025 ஆகிய தேதிகளுக்கு இடையே நிகழ்ந்த ஐந்து நாள் போர், பல அரசியல் மற்றும் ராணுவப் பாடங்களை வழங்குகிறது. அவற்றில் மிகவும் முக்கியமானது, பகல்காமில்
தீவிரவாத தாக்குதலுக்கு பதிலடியாக ஆபரேஷன் சிந்தூர் மூலம் பாகிஸ்தானில்
உள்ள தீவிரவாத இயக்கங்களின் கேந்திரங்களை அழித்ததன் மூலம் இந்தியா பாகிஸ்தான் தீவிரவாத
அரசியலை முடிவுக்கு கொண்டு வரும் என்ற புதிய அரசியல் நிலைப்பாட்டை தெளிவாக்கியது.
இந்த நிலைப்பாட்டை இந்தியாவின் “புதிய இயல்பு” (New Normal) என்று பிரதமர் நரேந்திர மோடி தெளிவு படுத்தியுள்ளது
குறிப்பிடத் தக்கது.
பல களங்களில் இந்தியா அதி தீவிரமாக நடத்திய இந்தப் போரில், முதல்
முறையாக ராணுவம் இந்தியாவில் தயாரித்த பிரமோஸ் ஏவுகணைகள் மற்றும் எதிரி விமானங்களை
எதிர்த்து இந்தியாவில் உருவாக்கப்பட்ட நவீன உள்நாட்டு பல்லடுக்கு
வான் பாதுகாப்பு வலையமைப்பைப் பயன்படுத்தியது. இந்தியா
முழுவதும் உள்ள ராணுவ நிலைகளைக் குறிவைத்து பாகிஸ்தானிலிருந்து வந்த ஆளில்லா
விமானங்கள் மற்றும் ஏவுகணைகளின் தொடர் தாக்குதல்களை முறியடிப்பதில் இவை முக்கிய பங்காற்றின.
இதைத்தவிர, இந்தப் போர் இந்தியாவின் முப்படைகளும் ஒருங்கிணைந்த தலைமையின் கீழ்
முதன் முறையாக ஒருங்கிணைந்து செயல் பட்டன. அதே மாதிரி முதன் முறையாக உள்நாட்டில் தயாரான சுற்றித்திரியும் வெடிமருந்துகள்
(Loitering munitions), ஆளில்லா விமானங்கள் உள்ளிட்ட ஆயுதங்களை
போருக்கு உபயோகித்தை சீனா மற்றும் பாகிஸ்தான் ஆகிய அண்டை நாடுகள்
கவனித்திருப்பார்கள்
இந்த போரில் பாகிஸ்தான் பகுதிகளான பஞ்சாப் மற்றும் ஆக்கிரமிப்பில்
உள்ள காஷ்மீரில் (PoJK)துல்லியமான தாக்குதல்களுக்கு விமானப்
போருடன்,ஏவுகணைகள் மற்றும் ஆளில்லா விமானங்கள் ஆகியவை இணந்து செயல்பட்டதின்
மூலம் இந்திய ராணுவத்தின்
போர்முறை கொள்கையில் ஒரு புதிய அத்தியாயம் என்று கூறலாம்.
இந்த மாற்றம் முப்படைகளுக்கு இடையேயான வெற்றிகரமான ஒருங்கிணைப்பையும், "ஆத்மநிர்பர்" (தற்சார்பு) பாதுகாப்புத் திறன்களையும் வெளி படுத்தியுள்ளது.
இதில், முப்படைகளும் மிகச் சிறப்பாகச் செயல்பட்ட அம்சங்கள் ஒருபுறம் இருந்தாலும், எதிர்கால மோதல்களுக்கான தயார்நிலையை
உறுதிசெய்யும் வகையில் கூடுதல் கவனம் தேவைப்படும் அம்சங்களும் உள்ளன.
முக்கிய குறைபாடுகள் என்ன என்பதை பார்க்கலாம். இந்த குறைபாடுகளை நீக்க வழி காணா விட்டால் முப்படைகளின் தயார்நிலை குறைய
ஏதுவாகும்.
பாகிஸ்தான் தீவிரவாதிகள்
காஷ்மீரில் சுற்றுலா ஸ்தலமான பஹல்காமில் 26 சுற்றுலா பயணிகளை, அவர்கள் இந்துக்கள் என்ற
ஒரே காரணத்துக்காக உயிரை குடித்தார்கள். அந்த லஷ்கர் தீவிரவாதிகளின் ஊடுரவலைப் பற்றிய
விவரங்கள் எந்த ஒரு நு்ண்ணறிவுத் துறைக்கோ அல்லது போலீசுக்கு வரவில்லை. இத்தகைய
குறைபாடுகளை தவிர்க்க அந்த அமைப்புகளை முடுக்கி விடவேண்டும் என்பதில் ஐயம் இல்லை.
கடந்த ஆண்டில்
(2025–2026), இந்தியப் பாதுகாப்பு மற்றும் நுண்ணறிவு அமைப்புகள் குறைந்தது 15 முதல் 20
வரையிலான பயங்கரவாதக் குழுக்களை (modules) முறியடித்து உள்ளன. இவற்றில் பெரும்பான்மை- யானவை ஐசிஸ், அல்-கயிதா,
ஐயிஷ் ஏ மொகம்மத் மற்றும் கஷ்மீரில் இயங்கும் அன்சர் கஸ்வா ஏ ஹிந்த் (AGH) போன்ற ஜிஹாதி
அமைப்புகளுடன் தொடர்புடையவையாக இருந்தன. இவற்றுள், சுமார் 10 முதல் 12 குழுக்கள் வெளிப்படையாகவே
ஜிஹாதித் தன்மையைக் கொண்டவையாக இருந்தன; எஞ்சியவை பப்பர் கல்ஸா (BKI) போன்ற காலிஸ்தான்
குழுக்களுடனும், போதைப்பொருள் சார்ந்த பயங்கரவாத வலைப்பின்னல்களுடனும் தொடர்புடையவையாக
இருந்தன.
குஜராத்
பயங்கரவாத எதிர்ப்புப் படையினர் (ATS), ஐசிஸ்(ஆப்கானிஸ்தான்) அமைப்பைச் சேர்ந்த மூன்று பேரைக் கைதுசெய்தனர்; இரசாயன முன்னோடிப் பொருட்களைக் கைப்பற்றினர்.
உத்திர
பிரதேசத்தில் அல்-கொய்தா பிரச்சாரக் குழு: செயல்பாட்டாளர் மற்றும் 4,000-க்கும்
மேற்பட்ட பாகிஸ்தான் தொடர்புடையவர்களை உத்தரப் பிரதேச பயங்கரவாத எதிர்ப்புப்
படையினர், கைது செய்துள்ளனர்.
ஆகவே தொடர்ந்து
எல்லை மாநிலங்கள், முக்கியமாக குஜராத், பஞ்சாப், அஸ்ஸாம், மேற்கு வங்கம் மற்றும்
காஷ்மீர் மாநிலங்கள், மத்திய அரசுடன்
ஒருங்கிணைந்து செயல் படவேண்டிய கட்டாயம் ஏற்பட்டு்ள்ளது. கட்சி வேறுபாடுகளை
ஒதுக்கி தீவிரவாதத்தை எதிர்த்த செயல்படுவதில் இன்னும் தேவையான முன்னேற்றம்
ஏற்படவில்லை என்பது துக்ககரமான சம்பவமே.
இரண்டாவதாக,
இந்தியா போரில் வென்றாலும், அதைப் பற்றிய விவரங்களை பத்திரிகை உலகுக்கு
தெரிவிப்பதில் தாமதம் ஏற்பட்டது. இதற்கு மாறாக, பாகிஸ்தான் போரைப்பற்றிய பொய்யான
தகவல்களை மேற்கத்திய ஊடகங்கள் மூலம் முந்திக் கொண்டு பரப்பியது குறிப்பிடத்
தக்கது. உடனுக்குடன் செய்திகள் மின்வலைகள் மூலம் பரவும் இக்காலத்தில், இத்தகைய
மெத்தனம் அரசியல் மற்றும் பாதுகாப்பு குறைபாடுகளைப் பற்றிய தவறான செய்திகளை பரப்ப
எதிரி நாடுக்கு உதவும் என்பதில் ஐயம் இல்லை.
மேலும்,
ஆபரேஷன் சிந்தூரின் போது, அமெரிக்க அதிபர் டொனால்ட் டிரம்ப் பாகிஸ்தானுக்கு
முக்கியத்துவம் கொடுத்து, தானே இந்திய-பாகிஸ்தான் போரில்
அமைதிகாண உதவியதாக பல முறை கூறியுள்ளார். இதை அவர் சுய ஆதாயத்துக்காக கூறினாலும்
அதை வலுவாக மறுக்க இந்திய வெளியுறவு அலுவலகம் தவறியது. அத்தகைய அந்நிய தலையீட்டை
எவ்வாறு கையாள வேண்டும் என்பதை இந்தியா சிந்தித்து செயல்பட வேண்டும்.
கர்னல் ஆர் ஹரிஹரன் ராணுவ நுண்ணறிவுப் பிரிவில் ஏறக்குறைய 25 ஆண்டுகள் தெற்காசிய
அரசியல் மற்றும் தீவிரவாதங்களை பற்றிய ஆய்வில் பங்கு பெற்றவர்.