மத்திய கிழக்குப் போரினால் இலங்கை செலுத்தும் அதிகவிலை

 கேணல் ஆர். ஹரிஹரன் |  வீரகேசரி, கொழும்பு | 6 ஏப்ரல் 2026

 

சுமார் 2 கோடி 30 இலட்சம்  மக்களைக் கொண்ட  இலங்கை, வெகு தொலைவில் உள்ள ஈரான் மற்றும் வளைகுடா ஒத்துழைப்பு கவுன்சில்  நாடுகளில் (பஹ்ரைன், கத்தார், குவைத், ஓமான், சவுதி அரேபியா மற்றும் ஐக்கிய அரபு இராச்சியம்) நடக்கும் போரின் விளைவுகளினால் சிக்கித் தவிப்பது சத்யஜித் ரேயின் புகழ்பெற்ற 1973 ஆம் ஆண்டு திரைப்படமான 'அசானி சங்கெட்' (தூரத்து இடிமுழக்கம்) திரைப் படத்தை நினைவூட்டுகிறது. 

இரண்டாம் உலகப் போரின் விளவாக ஏற்பட்ட  பெரும் வங்காளப் பஞ்சத்தால் ஒரு சிறிய கிராமம் அனுபவித்த துயரங்களை அந்தத் திரைப்படம் சித்திரிக்கிறது.

ஈரான் போர் குறித்த யதார்த்த நிலைவரத்தை இலங்கை உணர்ந்த தருணம் மிகவும் அதிர்ச்சிகரமானது. போர் தொடங்கி ஒரு வாரம் கழித்து, மார்ச் 4 ஆம் திகதி, இலங்கை கடற்கரையிலிருந்து வெறுமனே  40 கிலோ மீட்டர்  தொலைவில் ஈரானிய கடற்படைக் கப்பலான 'ஐ.ஆர்.ஐ.எஸ். தேனா' (IRIS Dena) வை அமெரிக்க கடற்படையின் யு.எஸ்.எஸ். சார்லட்  (USS Charlotte) நீர்மூழ்கிக் கப்பல்  மூழ்கடித்தது. இலங்கை கடற்படை தேடுதல் மற்றும் மீட்புப் பணிகளை முன்னெடுத்து  உயிர் தப்பியவர்கள் 32 பேரையும் 87 ஈரானிய கடற்படையினரின் சடலங்களையும்  மீட்டது. 60 பேர் காணாமல் போனதாக அறிவிக்கப்பட்டது.

இலங்கை ஈரானுடன் பல தசாப்தங்களாக நெருங்கிய  நட்புறவைக்  கொண்டிருக்கிறது.  ஈரானுக்கு இலங்கை செலுத்த வேண்டிய பழைய மசகு  எண்ணெய்க் கடனை அடைக்க, "தேயிலைக்கு எண்ணெய்" என்ற பண்டமாற்று ஒப்பந்தம் செய்யப்பட்டிருந்தது. வெளிநாட்டு நாணய நெருக்கடியின் போது ஈரானிய தேசிய எண்ணெய் நிறுவனத்திற்கு இருந்த 19 கோடி10 இலட்சம்  டொலர்கள்  கடனை 2025 ஆம் ஆண்டின் நடுப் பகுதியில் இலங்கை 13 கோடி 6 இலட்சம்  டொடாலர்களாக குறைத்திருந்தது. 

எனவே, இலங்கை எல்லைக்கு மிக அருகில் ஈரானிய போர்க்கப்பல் மூழ்கடிக்கப்பட்டது ஜனாதிபதி அநுர குமார திசாநாயக்கவின் அரசாங்கத்திற்கு பெரும் அரசியல் நெருக்கடியை ஏற்படுத்தியது. ஈரான் மீது அமெரிக்காவும் இஸ்ரேலும் போரைத் தொடங்கி ஒரு மாதத்துக்கும் அதிகமான  காலம் கடந்துவிட்டது.  இந்த காலப்பகுதியில் ஈரானின் இராணுவக் உள்கட்டமைப்பு, இஸ்லாமிய புரட்சிகர பாதுகாப்புப் படைத் தளங்கள் மற்றும் தொழில்துறைத் தளங்களைக் குறி வைத்து 11,000 முதல் 15,000 இலக்குகளைத் தாக்கியுள்ளதாக அமெரிக்க மற்றும் இஸ்ரேலிய படைகள் கூறுகின்றன.

இஸ்ரேலியப் படைகள் தென் லெபனானில் உள்ள ஈரானின் ஆதரவுப் படைகளான ஹிஸ்புல்லா மற்றும் ரத்வான் படைகளை இலக்கு  வைத்து தாக்குதல்களை நடத்திக் கொண்டிருக்கின்றன. 

ஈரானின் அதியுயர் ஆன்மீகத்  தலைவர் மற்றும் உயர்மட்ட இராணுவத் தலைவர்களை  இஸ்ரேலியர்கள் அழித்த பிறகு ஆட்சி மாற்றம் ஏற்படும் என்ற அமெரிக்காவின் எதிர்பார்ப்பு பொய்த்துப் போய்விட்டது. ட்ரம்ப் ஈரானிய மக்களை இஸ்லாமிய ஆட்சித் தலைவர்களுக்கு  எதிராக கிளர்ந்தெழுமாறு  அழைப்பு விடுத்த போதிலும், ஈரானின் தலைமை மாற்றம் சுமூகமாக நடந்தது.

ஆறு வளைகுடா ஒத்துழைப்பு கவுன்ஸில்  நாடுகளில் உள்ள அமெரிக்க இராணுவத் தளங்கள் மீது ஈரான் நடத்திவரும்  ஏவுகணை மற்றும் ட்ரோன் தாக்குதல்கள் ஆச்சரியமான முடிவுகளைத் தந்துள்ளன. 10,000 அமெரிக்க துருப்புக்கள் மற்றும் அமெரிக்க மத்திய கட்டளையகத்தின் (CENTCOM) முன்னரங்கத்  தலைமையகம் அமைந்திருக்கும.  கட்டாரில் அல் உதைத் (Al Udeid) விமானத் தளம் ஈரானின் பல தாக்குதல்களுக்கு உள்ளாகி கட்டிடங்களும். தகவல் தொடர்பு உள்கட்டமைப்புகளும்  சேதமடைந்தன. 

தற்போது. அமெரிக்கத் துருப்புக்கள் ஹோட்டல்களில் தங்க வைக்கப்பட்டுள்ளனர், மேலும் அவற்றையும் தாக்கப்போவதாக ஈரான் எச்சரித்துள்ளது. அல் ஜசீரா  மார்ச் 30, 2026 அன்று வெளியிட்ட  மதிப்பீட்டின்படி, தொடரும்  மோதல்கள் மத்திய கிழக்கு முழுவதும் 3,200 க்கும் மேற்பட்ட உயிரிழப்புகளையும் சுமார் 33,000 பேருக்கு  காயங்களையும். ஏற்படுத்தியுள்ளன. 

ஈரான் உலகின் மிக முக்கியமான கடல்வழிப் பாதையான 'ஹார்முஸ் நீரிணையை ' (Strait of Hormuz) மூடியுள்ளது. இந்த நீரிணை வழியாக சாதாரணமாக ஒரு நாளைக்கு 138 கப்பல்கள் செல்லும், அவற்றில் பாதி எண்ணெய்,  எரிவாயு தாங்கிச் செல்லும் கப்பல்கள். சர்வதேச எரிசக்தி முகமையின் (IEA) தகவல்களின் பிரகாரம்  நாளொன்றுக்கு சுமார் 2 கோடி10 இலட்சம் பீப்பாய்  எண்ணெய் இந்த நீரணை வழியாகவே செல்கிறது. 

இது உலகளாவிய கடல்வழி எண்ணெய் வர்த்தகத்தில் சுமார் 35 சதவீதமாகும்.  இந்த நீரிணையைக் கடக்க சுங்கக் கட்டண முறையை அறிமுகப்படுத்தும் தீர்மானத்தை ஈரானிய பாராளுமன்றம் நிறைவேற்றியிருக்கிறது. 

ஈரான் ஹார்முஸ் நீரிணையை  திறக்காமல் விட்டால், கார்க் தீவில் (Kharg Island) உள்ள ஈரானிய எண்ணெய் நிலையங்கள் மீது தாக்குதல் நடத்தப் போவதாக  ஜனாதிபதி ட்ரம்ப் செய்த எச்சரிக்கை ஈரானிடம் இருக்கும்  யூரேனிய கையிருப்பைக் கைப்பற்ற அமெரிக்கா முயற்சிக்கிறது என்பதைக் காட்டுகிறது. 

இருப்பினும், போர் நிறுத்தத்திற்கான அமெரிக்க நிபந்தனைகளை ஏற்கும் நிலையில் ஈரான் இல்லை. யேமனில் உள்ள ஈரானிய ஆதரவு ஹவுதிஸ் கிளர்ச்சியாளர்களும் இஸ்ரேலுக்கு எதிரான நடவடிக்கைகளில் இணைந்துள்ளனர். போர்  தீவிரமடைந்தால் மாற்றுப்  பாதையான செங்கடல் பாதையும் பாதுகாப்பற்றதாக மாறும்.

போரின் விளைவுகள்

மத்திய கிழக்கில் நீடித்த போர் மற்றும் சர்வதேச கடல், வான் போக்குவரத்து முடக்கம் ஆகியவை உக்ரைன் போரினால் ஏற்கனவே பாதிக்கப்பட்டிருந்த உலகளாவிய விநியோகச் சங்கிலியை மேலும் சீர்குலைத்துள்ளன. ஹார்முஸ் நீரிணை  முடக்கப்பட்டதால், எரிசக்தி இறக்குமதியை நம்பியிருக்கும் தெற்காசிய நாடுகளின் பொருளாதாரம் கடுமையாகப் பாதிக்கப்பட்டிருக்கிறது.அந்த நாடுகள் மாற்று எரிசக்தி ஆதாரங்களைக் கண்டறியவும் வர்த்தகப் பாதைகளை மாற்றியமைக்கவும் சுற்றுலாப் பயணிகளின் வருகை குறைவதைச் சமாளிக்கவும் வேண்டிய கட்டாயத்தில் உள்ளன.

மேலும், வளைகுடா ஓத்துழைப்பு கவுன்ஸில்  நாடுகளில் பணிபுரியும் புலம்பெயர் தொழிலாளர்களிடமிருந்து  வரும் பணப்புழக்கம் (Remittances) குறைய வாய்ப்புள்ளது.

மத்திய கிழக்கில் 6 கோடி 20 இலட்சம் மக்கள்  வாழ்கின்றனர், இதில் 3 கோடி 50 இலட்சம்  பேர் வெளிநாட்டவர்கள். தெற்காசியர்கள் இந்த வெளிநாட்டு மக்கள் தொகையில் பெரும் பங்கினராக உள்ளனர்.  இலங்கையர்கள் குறிப்பாக,  சில்லறை விற்பனை, வீட்டு வேலைகள் மற்றும் சேவைத் துறைகளில் கணிசமான எண்ணிக்கையில் உள்ளனர். 2025 ஆம் ஆண்டில் வெளிநாடுகளில் வாழும் இலங்கையர்களிடமிருந்து வந்த பணம் 780 கோடி டொலர்களை எட்டி சாதனை படைத்தது. தற்போது இந்த வருமானம் வற்றிப் போகும் அபாயம் ஏற்பட்டுள்ளது.

இஸ்ரேலில் சுமார் 100,000 முதல் 120,000 வெளிநாட்டுத் தொழிலாளர்கள் உள்ளனர். இதில் இலங்கையர்கள் சுமார் 15,000 முதல் 20,000 வரை இருக்கலாம் என மதிப்பிடப்பட்டுள்ளது. சுமார் 8,000-9,000 இலங்கையர்கள் முதியோர் பராமரிப்புப் பணிகளில் ஈடுபட்டுள்ளனர். அதிக ஊதியம் (மாதம் சுமார் 8 இலட்சம் முதல் 10 இலட்சம் ரூபாய் வரை) காரணமாக பல தொழிலாளர்கள் அங்கேயே தங்கியிருக்க முடிவு செய்திருக்கிறார்கள்.

அதே சமயம், இலங்கையின் சுற்றுலாத் துறை பெரும் வீழ்ச்சியைச் சந்தித்திருக்கிறது.  2026 மார்ச் மாதத்தின் முதல் 22 நாட்களில் சுற்றுலாப் பயணிகளின் வருகை கடந்த ஆண்டை விட 17.3 சதவீதம் குறைந்துள்ளது.

அரசாங்கத்தின் நடவடிக்கைகள்

ஜனாதிபதி அநுர குமார திசாநாயக்க, வங்குரோத்தான தனது நாட்டின்  பொருளாதாரத்தை மீட்டெடுக்க சர்வதேச நாணய நிதியத்தின் (IMF ) நிபந்தனைகளை அமல்படுத்தும் அதே வேளை, மத்திய கிழக்குப்  போரின் விளைவுகளையும் சமாளிக்க வேண்டியுள்ளது. மார்ச் 15 அன்று அமைச்சர்களுடனும்  அதிகாரிகளுடனும்  ஆலோசனை நடத்திய ஜனாதிபதி திசநாயக்க  எரிசக்தி விநியோகச் சீர்குலைவுகளைச் சமாளிக்க சில நடவடிக்கைகளை எடுத்திருக்கிறார்.

இந்தியப் பிரதமர் நரேந்திர மோடியிடம் உதவி கோரியதைத் தொடர்ந்து நான்கு நாட்களுக்குள் இந்தியா இரண்டு கப்பல்களில் எரிபொருளை இலங்கைக்கு அனுப்பியது.

அரசாங்கம் மீண்டும் 'எரிபொருள் பாஸ் (QR) குறியீடு' முறையை அறிமுகப்படுதியிருக்கிறது. இதன் மூலம் தனியார் வாகனங்களுக்கு வாரத்திற்கு குறிப்பிட்டளவு  லீட்டர்கள் எரிபொருள் மட்டுமே வழங்கப்படும்.

எரிசக்தியைச் சேமிக்க அரசு நிறுவனங்கள், பாடசாலைகள் மற்றும் நீதிமன்றங்களுக்கு புதன்கிழமை விடுமுறையுடன் கூடிய 'நான்கு நாள் வேலை வாரம்' அறிமுகப்படுத்தப்பட்டிருக்கிறது. 

எதிர்க்கட்சிகள் அரசாங்கத்தின் மீது விமர்சனங்களை முன்வைத்தாலும், ஊழலுக்கு எதிரான நடவடிக்கைகளால் அநுர குமார திசாநாயக்கவை  ஒரு சிறந்த தெரிவாக மக்கள்  பார்க்கப்படுகிறார்கள்.

போரும் உணவும்

ஈரான் போரினால் இலங்கையின் சமையலறைகளும் பாதிக்கப்பட்டுள்ளன. இறக்குமதியாகும் பல்வேறு  அத்தியாவசிய உணவுப் பொருட்களுக்கு  தட்டுப்பாடு ஏற்பட்டிருக்கிறது. எதிர்வரும் வெசாக் பண்டிகைக்கு முன்னதாக இந்த உணவுப் பொருட்கள் மீண்டும் தடையின்றி கிடைப்பதை அரசாங்கம் உறுதி செய்யும் என்று எதிர்பார்க்கப்படுகிறது.

_____________

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sri Lanka Pays for High Cost of War in Iran & GCC Countries

 

Col R Hariharan | Sri Lanka Perspectives March 2026| South Asia Security Trends, April 2026 | https://www.security-risks.com 

 

War in perspective

The plight of Sri Lanka, an island nation of about 23 million people caught in the after effect of a war in faraway Iran and GCC countries (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirate - UAE) reminds one of Satyajit Ray’s acclaimed 1973 film Asani Sanket (Distant Thunder). The movie depicts the sufferings of a small village in Bengal due the great Bengal famine triggered by World War II.  

Sri Lanka was rudely awakened to the reality of the war in Iran, when US Navy submarine USS Charlotte (SSN-766) torpedoed and sank a Iranian navy warship IRIS Dena, barely 40 Km from Sri Lanka coast on March 4, a week after the war started. The Sri Lankan Navy carried out a search and rescue mission to pick up 32 survivors and 87 dead bodies of Iranian sailors. Sixty of them were reported missing.

Sri Lanka has had friendly relations with Iran for decades. It had signed a barter agreement with Iran for continuing the earlier “tea-for-oil” settlement mechanism. It was designed to reduce outstanding petroleum debts of Sri Lanka by exchanging Ceylon tea, during foreign currency crisis. By mid‑2025, Sri Lanka had cut its debt to Iran’s National Iranian Oil Company from about $191 million to $130.6 million through this arrangement. So the sinking of the Iranian frigate so close to Sri Lanka by the US submarine created an embarrassing political storm for President AK Dissanayake’s government. As March ends it will be a month since the US and Israel started the war against Iran. During the month, U.S. and Israeli forces claim to have hit over 11,000 to 15,000 targets within Iran, targeting their military infrastructure, Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) bases and industrial sites.

Israeli strikes have targeted Iranian proxy forces - Hezbollah and Radwan Force in Southern Lebanon. The US expectation of regime change after the decapitation of Iran’s head of state and top military and intelligence leadership by Israelis has been belied. Iran's leadership change was smooth, despite Trump’s appeals to the Iranian population to rise up against the Islamists.

Iran’s missile and drone attacks on American military bases in the six GCC countries have surprisingly yielded results. The Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar where 10,000 US troops and the forward headquarters of the US Central Command (CENTCOM) are located suffered multiple Iranian strikes that damaged buildings and communication infrastructure. Troops are now housed in hotels and Iran has warned those also can become targets.

According to Al Jazeera’s estimate of March 30, 2026, the ongoing conflict has resulted in over 3,200 fatalities and approximately 33,000 injuries across the Middle East with Iran and Lebanon bearing the brunt. Iran has closed the world’s most critical choke point – Strait of Hormuz – for marine traffic. The Strait normally handles 138 ships per day. Roughly half of them are tankers carrying oil and gas.  According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), normally the Strait facilitates the transit of about 21 million barrels of oil daily. That represents roughly 35% of global seaborne oil trade. Iran's parliament has passed a resolution that introduces a toll system to cross the Strait. 

POTUS Trump has massed troops and threatened to launch operations against Iranian oil facilities in Kharg Island unless Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz for international marine traffic. The US is also after recovering Uranium reserves of Iran. However, Iran seems to be in no mood to accept US terms for a ceasefire. Pro-Iranian Houthis in Yemen have also joined the operations against Israel; if they become more active the alternate Red Sea route  can become unsafe for marine traffic. So, we can expect the war to continue even if Americans escalate the scale of their operations by landing troops on Kharg Island to forcibly try to open the Strait of Hormuz. We can then expect Israelis to intensify their operations against Iranian proxies in Southern Lebanon and Houthis to keep the Red Sea route open.

Effect of war

Prolonged war in the Middle East and the closure of the international marine and air traffic is playing havoc with global supply chains, already frayed by four years of war in Ukraine. The choking of marine traffic in Strait of Hormuz, particularly of tankers carrying petroleum and gas, is hitting South Asian countries' economy hard as they are dependent on imported energy resources. They have to find alternate sources of oil and gas and take measures to curb surge in energy costs; rework disrupted trade routes and strategize for likely fall in tourist traffic. There is also likely to be a fall in remittances from expatriates living in GCC countries. In short, they have to manage an inflationary economy with the attendant negative political impact while the war in Iran shakes up the strategic world.

 

The continuation of the war in Iran is affecting the lives of 62 million people living in GCC. It includes 35 million foreigners (who form the 56% majority of the population). South Asians form the bulk of the foreign population. Sri Lankans form a significant share of the workforce, particularly in retail, domestic work and service sectors. Remittances from Sri Lanka expatriates in 2025 reached a historic record of $7.8 billion, marking a 19% increase from the previous year.  Sri Lanka runs the risk of their remittance drying up in the coming days.

There are 100,000 to 120,000 foreign workers in Israel at present. They are mainly from Thailand, Philippines, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Moldova, and Eastern Europe. Indian and Thai workers dominate agriculture. Large numbers from Sri Lanka, Philippines and Nepal are involved in caregiving. Construction and services are dominated by Indians, Chinese and East Europeans. As of early 2026, 15,000 to 20,000 Sri Lankans are estimated to be employed in Israel. About 8000-9000 Sri Lankans are employed in home-based caregiving for the elderly. Nearly 2,000 workers departed in the first three months of 2025 alone to be employed in construction jobs. with thousands more following after Israel extended re-entry visas for Sri Lankan workers until April 30, 2026. In 2025, Sri Lanka and Israel signed agreements to expand employment opportunities in caregiving, agriculture, construction, hotels, house-keeping and manufacturing.

Despite ongoing regional tensions, the Sri Lankan Embassy in Israel reports that most workers have chosen to stay due to high wages—often ranging from Rs. 800,000 to Rs. 1 million per month—and strong social welfare. While employment opportunities go up in Israel for Sri Lankans, their safety will always be an added concern for the Sri Lanka government in the coming days. Sri Lanka is one of the world’s top tourist destinations. Tourism industry not only earns foreign exchange but provides employment to a host of other service sector industries in hospitality and transport. GCC countries have emerged as hubs of tourist air traffic from the West. The war is already affecting it as evidenced by 17.3 percent less tourist arrivals recorded during the first 22 days of March 2026 when compared with the figures for the same period last year.

Government in action

President AK Dissanayake will have to cope with all these issues, while implementing the conditionalities of the  International Monetary Fund (IMF) being followed for recouping the bankrupt economy. The IMF Team is already in Sri Lanka for the Fifth and Sixth Reviews under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme. Once completed, this could potentially release around $ 700 million. The President held a meeting of ministers and officials on March 15 to discuss the disruptions to global energy supply networks caused by the War. The meeting examined measures to deal with interruptions to coal, gas and oil supply chains. After that the government has taken a number of measures to minimise the adverse impact on the national economy. Some of these are listed below.

President Dissanayake spoke to PM Narendra Modi to seek India’s help in overcoming Sri Lanka’s petroleum shortage due to non-arrival of supplies. Within four days India sent two ship loads, one carrying 38,000 MT of oil and the other carrying 18,000 MT of diesel and 18, 000 MT of high-octane petrol to Sri Lanka. The government has reintroduced the ‘Fuel Pass QR code’ system, a rationing mechanism first implemented during the economic crisis in 2022. This system limits private motorists to roughly 15 litres of fuel per week. To conserve energy, the government has introduced a four-day week for work in government institutions, schools, universities and the judiciary with Wednesday as a mid-week holiday.

As expected in any democracy, the government has come under flak from opposition leaders, right from the sinking of an Iranian warship by USN submarine. But AK Dissanayake seems to be the best choice among the political leaders; at least he is pursuing old cases of political corruption and misuse of power by many political leaders. They will probably welcome the four-day week for the judiciary so that they can buy time.

Tailpiece – War and cuisine: Sri Lankan cuisine is suffering from the war in Iran. Two essential commodities for a Sri Lankan meal - sprat and dhal – bulk of which imported respectively from Iran and Canada have become scarce. Before Vesak is celebrated, we can expect the AKD government to ensure these culinary essentials are back on the table.

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Website: https://col.hariharan@net  Email: haridirect@gmail.com,]

US/Israel-Iran War comes to Sri Lanka’s waters

Col R Hariharan |Op-Ed| Ceylon Today| 15 March 2026

https://ceylontoday.lk/2026/03/15/us-israel-iran-war-comes-to-sri-lankas-waters/

Nobody among the 74 nations, who participated in the largest edition of the Indian Navy’s multilateral naval Exercise MILAN from February 15 to 25 in Vishakapatnam in India, would have imagined it would usher in the US-Iran war to the Indian Ocean region. That is exactly what happened when one of the three Iranian Navy ships that had taken part in the International Fleet Review - IRIS Dena - ran into the sights of USS Charlotte (SSN-766) submarine on March 4. The US fast-attack submarine torpedoed and sank the Iranian warship, 40 km from the coast of Sri Lanka. Eighty-seven Iranian sailors were killed and 60 are reported missing. Sri Lankan Navy, which carried out a search and rescue mission picked up 32 survivors and the dead bodies.

In the 13^th edition of the Exercise, India had demonstrated its naval power with the participation of a carrier battle group led by INS Vikrant. A series of off-shore and on sea exercises were conducted with the participation of 42 warships (including 18 of them “friendly” foreign countries) and 29 naval aircraft. Ironically, the Sea Phase featured advanced anti-submarine warfare, air defence, maritime interdiction, cross-deck flying and live weapon firings.

The theme of the Exercise MILAN was 'Camaraderie, Cooperation, Collaboration'! Apart from Iran, major participants included the US, Russia, Japan, Australia, UK, France, Germany, the UAE and various ASEAN and IOR nations.

The sinking of the Iranian frigate that had participated as a guest in a friendly exercise hosted by India in the Indian Ocean has raised both moral, legal and ethical issues in the cynical world of nations waging wars.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry officially labelled the torpedoing as an atrocity at sea and a war crime.  Iran claimed the vessel was in international waters and was unarmed or lightly armed for its participation in the naval review. Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Aragachi has warned the US would bitterly regret the precedent set by the attack on a vessel returning from a diplomatic mission.

As expected, President Donald Trump was flippant in his comments on the sinking while addressing the Republican Members Issues Conference in Florida on March 9, 2026. He recounted a conversation with military officials where he asked why they were sinking "top of the line" Iranian ships instead of capturing them for US use. He claimed the officials told him it was "more fun to sink them" and safer than attempting a capture. He bragged that the US Navy had destroyed 46 Iranian naval ships in just three and a half days, stating, "Their Navy is gone, it's all lying at the bottom of the ocean." Trump emphasized that the US would continue until Iran was "totally and decisively defeated," dismissing the need for "restraint.” Though he trivialised Iran choking international energy tankers from transit at the Straits of Hormuz, its daily transit there has plummeted to 92%. 

There is no doubt the sinking of the Iranian warship that had participated as a guest in an Indian naval exercise has caused a strategic embarrassment to India. This was evident from India maintaining a strategic silence on the sinking of IRIS Dena. While PM Narendra Modi did not say anything, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar commented that the sinking was part of the "reality of the Indian Ocean." "When [Iranian sailors] set out and came here, the situation was totally different. They were coming in for a fleet review. And then they got, in a way, caught on the wrong side of events," Jaishankar added. India has permitted another Iranian warship, IRIS Lavan, to dock at Kochi on humanitarian grounds following the US sub attack of IRIS Dena. It reflects New Delhi’s stand on the US/Israel war on Iran: avoiding taking sides, calling for restraint, de-escalation and a return to dialogue.

The comments of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake reflected the dilemma of South Asian nations in commenting on the war against Iran. He emphasized Sri Lanka’s neutrality in the conflict and its actions were solely based on humanitarian grounds. Sri Lanka took the rare step of “interning” another Iranian naval vessel IRIS Bushehr and its 208 members in Trincomalee harbour after it sought refuge. Interning refers to the legal process where Sri Lanka, a neutral country, takes custody of a belligerent nation's warship and its crew to prevent them from returning to active combat. This is a formal obligation under the 1907 Hague Convention, which dictates how neutral powers must handle foreign military assets that seek refuge in their territory during an armed conflict.  Evidently, Sri Lanka does not want to be seen offending POTUS Trump.

Moreover, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed to have destroyed at least 10 advanced American radar systems to "blind" U.S. surveillance and missile defence. Satellite imagery and official statements seem to have confirmed them. These include:

• Qatar: The AN/FPS-132 early-warning radar near Al-Khor, valued at approximately $1.1 billion.
• Jordan: A $300 million AN/TPY-2 radar (part of the THAAD missile defence system) at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base.
• Saudi Arabia: At a radar site near Prince Sultan Air Base, where a THAAD battery tent was charred.
• United Arab Emirates: At Al Ruwais and Al Sader bases tents  which host THAAD components were set on fire.

• Bahrain: In the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, satellite communication (SATCOM) terminals.
• Kuwait: Reports indicate damage to communication structures at Ali al Salem Air Base and the destruction of radomes at Camp Arifjan.

There is no sign of the War ending soon though it is two weeks since it started. On March 12, 2026 Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian outlined three specific conditions for ending the ongoing conflict with the US and Israel following his discussions with leaders from Russia and Pakistan.  These include the recognition of Iran’s legitimate rights – sovereignty and specific regional rights including the right to a civilian nuclear programme. Payment of reparations to Iran for the damages and losses caused by the belligerents during the conflict is the second condition. Thirdly, Iran sought firm international guarantees against future aggression.

POTUS Trump is in no mood to accept any conditional end to the war; he is calling total surrender of the Iranian regime. US Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth’s latest press briefing held on Friday, March 13, 2026, provided updates on Operation Epic Fury, the military campaign against Iran. He claimed that the US and Israel have struck over 15,000 targets in the first two weeks of conflict. He claimed that Iran’s missile volume is down by 90% and their one-way drone attack volume has decreased by 95%. Hegseth emphasized that the US policy of adopting a decisive and aggressive military stance has drawn criticism from international rights groups.

However, India’s EAM Jaishankar’s parleys with his Iranian counterpart seems to have succeeded in persuading Iran to allow oil tankers destined for India struck at Straits of Hormuz. With POTUS “allowing” the sale of Russian oil to India and others for the time being, India seems to have warded off serious gas and petroleum shortages for the time being. Hopefully, India will heed the call for meeting the energy needs of its smaller neighbours like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Maldives.

The crisis in GCC, has dislocated Sri Lankan tourism industry plans, which had ended the year 2025 on a very bright note. Unfortunately, the war in GCC came at the wrong time when remittances from Sri Lankan expatriates were touching a new high. One can only hope with the blessings of Satara varan devi - four guardian deities of Sri Lanka - help the War to end soon. 

Sri Lanka: Bringing Easter Sunday Attack case to a closure

 Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives February 2026 | South Asia Security Trends, March 2026 |https://www.security-risks.com  

Will the arrest of Sri Lanka’s former intelligence chief Major General Suresh Salley in the last week of the month, in connection with the 2019 Easter Sunday terror attacks that killed nearly 270 people, bring to a closure of cases pending for the  last seven years?  I am not too sure because Gen Salley’s arrest is under the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), with investigators claiming there is “adequate evidence” linking him to the bombings.

When I look at the loose ends left in the Easter Sunday attack cases for the last seven years, I cannot help quoting Winston Churchill who said “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” He was referring to the November 1942 Allied victory at the Second Battle of El Alamein, a turning point in the North African campaign of World War II. The phrase reflected his cautious optimism of when the tide was beginning to turn, but the war was far from over. Hopefully, the long overdue arrest of Gen Salley is the beginning of the process of bringing long overdue cases to a closure.

Comparison with India’s 26/11 attacks

I cannot help comparing the follow-up actions taken after the 26/11 Mumbai attacks by India (2008) and the Easter Sunday attacks by Sri Lanka (2019). There are similarities between both cases. Both were carried out by Jihadi terrorists. Intelligence failure featured as the common cause of both the terrorist attacks.  

In India’s case there was a lack of cohesive assessment mechanism, despite various intelligence agencies providing the police with bits and pieces of information. In Sri Lanka’s case it was much worse; Indian intelligence had provided the details of the impending attack, well in advance as well as on the day of the attack. These included date, time, target and persons involved in the attacks.

After the attacks took place India’s response was institutional and outward-facing, focusing on strengthening counter-terrorism capacity and isolating Pakistan diplomatically. In Sri Lanka’s case the response was internal and accountability-driven, with delayed high-profile arrests of intelligence officials, reflecting political entanglements and contested narratives.

India’s actions

Following the 26/11 Mumbai attacks in 2008, several high-level inquiries and investigations were ordered at both the state and national levels to identify security lapses and prosecute the perpetrators. The Government of Maharashtra appointed a two-member High-Level Enquiry Committee (HLEC), commonly known as the Pradhan Committee, a month after the attack. Its objective was to investigate the response of the Mumbai Police, identify lapses in acting on intelligence, and suggest measures to prevent future attacks. It found leadership failure of the police commissioner as well as systemic lapses like mechanical forwarding of intelligence reports without proper analysis. It also noted that coastal security was neglected.

A year later, India created the National Investigation Agency (NIA) as the country’s first federal agency for investigating and prosecuting terrorism related cases. The Maharashtra government created Force One, an elite specialized counter-terrorism unit modelled after the National Security Guard (NSG).

The Mumbai Police Crime Branch conducted the primary investigation into the attacks, leading to an 11,280-page chargesheet and the successful prosecution and execution of the terrorist Ajmal Kasab, who was caught. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) sent a rapid deployment team to Mumbai on November 29, 2008, to assist Indian authorities and investigate the deaths of six American citizens.

The NIA conducted a week-long interrogation of Pakistani-American David Coleman Headley in Chicago in 2010 after his arrest by the FBI. This investigation provided critical evidence of the involvement of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and individual officers from Pakistan's ISI. 

After the 26/11 attacks, Pakistan came under international pressure and its Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) launched its own probe. It led to the arrest of seven individuals, including LeT operational chief Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi. However, this investigation eventually stalled due to frequent changes in judges and legal delays. 

To put in a nutshell, India created the National Investigation Agency (NIA) in 2009 to improve coordination and assessment of information received from various agencies. India strengthened coastal security and marine policing and streamlined the deployment of NSG hubs in major cities.

The aftermath of the 26/11 attack is still lingering among Indian administrators. After the attacks, Home Minister P Chidambaram wanted to create the National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC) modelled after the US NCTC. It was to be the apex body under the Intelligence Bureau (IB) with powers to search, seize, and arrest across India. However, the concept was shelved after several chief ministers of states opposed it as they considered it a violation of federal structure.

However, the concept has been revived by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) with the adoption of PRAHAAR – Policy for Response Against Hostile Activities and Radicalism – as India’s first comprehensive national counter terrorism policy unveiled on February 23, 2026.

Sri Lanka’s actions after the attacks

Sri Lanka took three actions in the wake of Easter Sunday attacks. It increased the military presence, arrested suspects linked to National Thowheeth Jama’ath (NTJ) and banned extremist groups. Zahran Hashim radical preacher who led the suicide squad died in the explosion at the Shangri-La Hotel during the 2019 attacks.

Scotland Yard and the FBI were involved in the follow-up investigations of the Easter Sunday terror attacks. Their contributions yielded several worthwhile results, especially in forensic analysis, network mapping and uncovering ideological links.

The FBI’s 72-page affidavit filed in the U.S. District Court in Dec 2020 offered a detailed forensic account of the attacks, including bomb composition and digital communications. The FBI traced ideological and operational links between the attackers and transnational ISIS extremist networks. It helped recover deleted communications and encrypted data from the devices used by bombers and their handlers. The FBI affidavit became a key document in international legal cooperation and intelligence sharing.

Scotland Yard helped Sri Lanka police structure the investigation and advised on securing digital evidence. They also assisted in identifying the chemical composition of the bombs (urea nitrate-based), linking them to known jihadist methods. Scotland Yard also provided strategic guidance on profiling extremist cells and understanding radicalization pathways in South Asia.

The prosecution process has been marked by several distinct phases and delays. Criminal prosecution of the main trial against 25 men, including alleged mastermind Mohamed Naufar with ISIS links, started in November 2021. Prosecutors filed more than 23,000 charges against these suspects, involving over 1,200 witnesses. Although indictments were served in October 2021, the trial faced several postponements due to the massive number of charges. There were also “practical issues” like lack of Tamil-speaking lawyers and translated documents. So the case that began in 2021 is still going on. 

Former National Police Chief Pujith Jayasundara and former Defence Secretary Hemasiri Fernando were tried in separate ‘trial at bar’ proceedings. Both officials were acquitted on February 18, 2022, after the court found insufficient evidence to convict them.

In January 2023, Sri Lanka's Supreme Court found former President Maithripala Sirisena and four other top officials negligent handling of information led to the attacks. The court ordered them to pay approximately Rs 310 million (roughly $1 million) in compensation to the victims' families in civil action.

Developments after 2024

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake in late 2024 ordered the launch of a fresh investigation to identify "masterminds" and potential political links to the master minds. While there have been no high-profile convictions of "masterminds" for the Easter Sunday attacks, there have been significant new prosecutions and arrests targeting high-level state and paramilitary figures previously accused of being "architects" of the bombings. 

That includes not only Gen Salley but also Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan (alias "Pillayan") arrested on April 8, 2025. Though initially detained on other charges, the government informed Parliament that new evidence links Pillayan's paramilitary network directly to the 2019 attacks, specifically in recruiting and supporting the bombers. Similarly, Lt Gen Hendavitharana, former Head of Military Intelligence, is being investigated for alleged strategic oversight and suspicious communications around the time of the attacks.

Salley is alleged to have aided and conspired in the Easter Sunday attacks. Do the investigators have any evidence against him beyond the claim of a whistleblower of Salley's involvement with a local Islamist group in a 2023 Channel 4 documentary?

The allegations against Salley centre around his close relation with Gotabaya Rajapaksa. It is alleged Salley wanted to stoke Islamists to cause insecurity and create conditions favourable for Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s presidential campaign.

India brought visible judicial closure with the execution of terrorist Kasab, and took constructive action to improve the system. Sri Lanka’s politically oriented process has interfered with the investigative process. This has skewed its systemic process affecting the handling of terror attacks. Will the arrest of Salley lead to final closure? One can only hope President Dissanayake is able to bring the Easter Sunday attack cases to a closure and punish the actual criminals.

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Website: https://.col.hariharan@net  Email: haridirect@gmail.com,]