Trump & understanding the emerging strategic equation: Q & A - 2

 Col R Hariharan 

Recently, a scribe raised a few questions after POTUS Donald Trump kidnapped Venezualan President Maduro. They largely pertained to the emerging strategic equatio. My answers are in two parts. The first part is available at https://col.hariharan.net/2026/01/trump-and-understanding-emerging.html.  Here are my answers to the rest of the questions:

 1.    There are no races for colonies today but yet the big powers are carving out their spheres of influence? Is it just a raw display of the realist strategy of IR?

I beg to differ. Despite Trump and MAGA philosophy, multilateralism is here to stay because of a few reasons: WTO has increased the global trade both in width and depth superpower equation has changed. Global South is finding a place in the first four economic powers with the US in the first place with China as an immediate challenger. They are followed by Russia, India, Japan, Germany and UK/France in that order.   

Secondly, warfare has changed in scale both in width and depth. Now hybrid warfare involving inciting the population through propaganda, cyberwarfare, misinformation used to soften target country before waging war. Drones in thousands tie down anti-aircraft systems, while long and short range missiles take on military command and control systems so vital in present day informatized scenario. This has garbled the traditional strategic equation of East and West. Global south are no more bystanders as India and China have made progress in both economic and military power.  These have the alliances between super powers ending clear cut equations. Terrorism at the global level has become an instrument to carry on the indirect warfare against big powers. Collective action at the UN has been rendered into irrelevance with a maverick POTUS cocking the snook at the UN. The very fact BRICS, ASEAN, for that matter even SCO have continued to flourish is a testimony as to collective action is no more superpower monopoly.

To sum up, multilateralism is here to stay as warfare is no more limited to land, air and sea; there are space, cyber and information warfare adding confusion to the battlefield.

Robotics is making an entry into battlefield; command and control systems in battlefields are poised to change when artificial intelligence makes a big entry future.

Trump cannot wish away newer energy sources emerging like ‘green hydrogen.’ Whether US likes it or not, natural phenomenon like global warming and downward in swing in population replacement rate are here to stay. This may mean new alliances and equations between countries

2. There are no alliance systems today. Is the lack of a balance of power a good thing or bad? 

I have not understood as alliances NATO, QUAD, BRICS, SCO etc continue to exist. There is nothing good or bad about balance of power. Alliances are formed to achieve a common objective, often to boost their strength through collective action

The US was never a colonial power and entered the world wars towards the end when it was hit. This time, it is playing a proactive role in triggering a global conflict. Could it hurt its invincibility in some way? Could China also emerge as a similar power today, given its policies and aggression vis-a-vis Taiwan?

3, The US was never a colonial power and entered the world wars towards the end when it was hit. This time, it is playing a proactive role in triggering a global conflict. Could it hurt its invincibility in some way? Could China also emerge as a similar power today, given its policies and aggression vis-a-vis Taiwan?

The U.S. military participated both in World War I and II by deploying over 2 million troops and 16 million troops respectively. They fought alongside Allies in crucial battles in contributing significant naval power (destroyers against U-boats), and providing massive financial, industrial, and material aid (loans, arms, food). It is now the largest naval power (though China might outnumber it in warships). It will continue to support Europea war efforts against common enemy i.e. Russia and Iran.

But US may not overtly support Taiwan invasion by China as it has acknowledged "One China Policy" in 2017. It is a policy steeped in strategic ambiguity acknowledging Beijing's position that there's only one sovereign China and Taiwan is part of it. Covert support could be to supply vital arms to Taiwan, encourage Japan and South Korea to take a hostile stance in case PRC invades Taiwan.

4. Peace had zero chance in the 1914 world as powers clashed inevitably. Could it be the same again in these times?

I will not be so pessimistic of the future. Warfare has continually changed since machine guns were introduced in 1884. As nations make progress in MIRV -Multiple Independently-targetable Re-entry Vehicles – warfare enters in new frontiers in space with satellites becoming targets. This will compel nations to come together for evolving common code of conduct to enforce international protocols.

For instance, as global marine traffic increased in the last five decades 32 international protocols have been introduced. Similarly, as international air traffic increased separate protocols for dealing with communication and phraseology, navigation and surveillance, separation standards between aircraft, flight operations, regulatory systems and key documents have been introduced. Though UN has become talk shop, we can expect new conventions like the Geneva Conventions to be evolved as and when obstacles are encountered as new warfare systems take over. This does not mean warfare will become obsolete; they will become short duration, pin pointed to achieve key objectives, though side by side we will have a few wars like those of Gaza and Ukraine wars.

 

 

Trump and understanding the emerging strategic equation: Q & A - 1

Col R Hariharan 

Recently, a scribe raised a few questions after POTUS Donald Trump kidnapped Venezualan President Maduro. They largely pertained to the emerging strategic equatio. My answers to his questions are in two parts. Here is the first part:

Question 1: The current state of international politics is similar to what it was before World War 1. Each big power is claiming its own sphere of influence, The US in the Western Hemisphere, Russia in Eastern Europe, China potentially in Taiwan with several overlaps like in Greenland, Africa, Latin America. 

Before WW-I, it was the European powers' greed for colonies that led to the war when clashes became inevitable. A similar situation is emerging now again even though there are no colonies per se now like then, yet the pursuit of power/national interests is as brutal. Defence pacts then made world war even more inevitable as two states' battles pulled in more. Today there are strategic clubs like the SCO, BRICS, QUAD, NATO in varying sizes. A WW 3 in a multipolar world could be devastating in no time. Archduke Franz Ferdinand's assassination ignited WW 1. A similar trigger today and it's almost the end of the road. 

What do you think about the above observation? 

It was Karl Marx famously said "History repeats itself, first as a tragedy, second as a farce". He atributed it to GWF Hegel, though Hegel had said “the only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history.” I think George Santayana’s statement "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" is more apt to the current confused world situation, after POTUS Donald Trump churned it up with the kidnapping of Venezuela’s President Maduro and prosecuting him in the US, in utter disregard of international norms of conduct of nations. He has ensured American access to the country’s oil resources by promoting a proxy regime there.

To add to global agony, Trump has threatened to take over Greenland and even Canada. His sights right now are on regime change in Iran, dethroning the Ayatollah’s Islamic rule, where popular agitation is gathering momentum due to run away inflation. Trump is threatening to bomb if the Iranian governments use violence against them.

President Trump holds a deeply hostile attitude towards the World Trade Organization (WTO), viewing it as an obstacle to his "America First" trade agenda. He believes it treats the U.S. unfairly. He is poised to slap 500% tariff on India, if it does not stop importing Russian petroleum.

It will be a folly to interpret at Trump’s actions through foreign policy angle only. We should understand his core philosophy. It has three components:

MAGA (Make America Great Again) agenda, transactional realism and populism. MAGA agenda uses “America First” nationalism as its war cry, rejects globalism. It favours a unilateral approach to protect US interests. It adopts Economic Protectionism using tariffs to renegotiate trade deals to protect domestic manufacture. Isolationism is used as a tool to view multilateral alliances like NATO, as an unfair burden on the US. To protect American identity, it focuses on strict immigration controls, treating them purely as a law and order problem.

It is evident Trump uses Transactional Realism in his dealings as explained in his 1987 book ‘The Art of the Deal.’ It involves using business centric logic to governance, viewing political and diplomatic transactions as zero-sum competition. The strategy includes Negotiating from Strength, Flexible Pragmatism based on situations rather than fixed theories, and adopting Machiavellian Calculation focusing on results than traditional moral or accepted norms of behaviour.    

The third component ‘Right Wing Populism’ has its roots in “aggrieved entitlement” as evident from his social media supporters’ writings. Its anti-establishment champions frame their political action as a retribution justice to those affected.

Trump’s style as President uses his authority as though the president has overall control over federal bureaucracy. Legal scholars describe such users as following the Unitary Executive Theory.

His book describes his operational philosophy. It includes thinking big to gain a psychological advantage, using fighting back as a tool when treated unfairly and always using maximum options to avoid struggling with a single approach.  

A few days back, President Trump has ordered the US to withdraw from 66 international organizations, including 31 major UN agencies, in bid to do away with multilateral cooperation. Trump’s executive order directing US departments to end participation in and funding for 31 UN and 35 non-UN organizations "as soon as possible," according to a White House release. These organizations span climate change, conservation, counter-terrorism and human rights, among other fields. India-led International Solar Initiative is one of them. 

In handling Trump, adopting purely diplomatic means are likely to end in failure. Perhaps, familiarising one self with Roger Fishers’ book “Getting to Yes” on business negotiating styles will be wise before dealing with Trump.

 

Sri Lanka at 2025: Bouquets Outnumber Brickbats in AKD’s Perfformance

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives December 2025 | South Asia Security Trends, January 2026 |https://www.security-risks.com  

The year 2025 will be remembered in Sri Lanka for Cyclone Ditwah, which struck the Sri Lanka coast towards the end of November. The heavy rain and landslides during the cyclone presents a grim picture: 644 people losing their lives, 18 injured, while 183 people were missing. The World Bank has estimated initial damage from the disaster at around $4.1 billion.

During the years 2023-24, the nation was preoccupied with recovering from economic bankruptcy and it coloured the political narrative for nearly two years. Recovering from the after-effect of Cyclone Ditwah is likely to dominate the political narrative during the years 2025-26, particularly if the overdue provincial council elections are held.

The year 2025 will also be the year AKD surprised everyone, showing rare maturity and pragmatism in continuing with the debt restructuring largely designed by his predecessor Ranil Wickremesinghe to satisfy the norms of the IMF. So, it was not surprising that the IMF approved $ 206 million Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). Sri Lanka has formally assured the IMF that it will preserve fiscal discipline. UN development partners have promised $ 35 million Humanitarian Priorities Plan (HPP) for nearly 1.2 million victims of Cyclone Ditwah. By December, the government has received $ 20 million of funds, mostly channelled through the UN by its development partners.

 

Most of the disaster relief efforts of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake government were covered in last month’s Sri Lanka Perspectives. India’s massive disaster relief Operation Sagar Bandhu launched in the wake of the cyclone continued during the month of December 2025 too. It culminated with the visit of India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar to Colombo on December 23. During the visit, he announced an assistance package of $ 450 million including $ 100 million as an outright grant. Before the year ended, India has announced a doubling of financial commitment to three housing projects, benefitting over 1550 families in the Northern and Southern Provinces. India’s real time response, as Kishantha Prashantha Cooray in his FT article says was a “substantive reaffirmation of a Sri Lanka–India partnership built on the bedrock of strategic reliability.”

China’s presence during 2025

Not to be outdone by India, China was ready for “disaster diplomacy” with the arrival of a 11-member delegation led by Wang Junzheng, Member of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC and Secretary of the CPC Committee of the Xizang (Tibet) Autonomous Region on December 23. The 11-member delegation met with President Dissanayake to discuss deepening mutual understanding and regional collaboration and visited Galle. A week earlier, the National People's Congress delegation led by Wang Dongming, Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the        NPC, from December 16. Its purpose was to reaffirm commitment to high-quality Belt and Road Initiative cooperation and to enhance exchanges between the legislative bodies of both countries. The delegation met with President Dissanayake and Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya. Similarly, a Guangdong Trade and Industry Delegation visited around November 21. It was led by Zhuang Lecong, Deputy Director General of Industry and IT of Guangdong Province. They held discussions with the Sri Lanka Export Development Board (EDB) to invite Chinese investment and provide more opportunities for Sri Lankan SMEs to participate in international trade fairs in China.

It is to be noted, by  the end of 2025, China's activity in Sri Lanka has shifted from the high-interest loan model of the past toward equity-based investments and strategic stabilization. During his Beijing visit in January 2025, President Dissanayake reaffirmed the "Strategic Cooperative Partnership." In an attempt to balance ties between China and India, he emphasized an "independent non-aligned foreign policy,"

During the year, Sri Lanka lifted its one-year moratorium on foreign research vessels. This has allowed Chinese so-called ‘scientific vessels’ to dock. The spy ships are required to adhere to new "standard operating procedures" (SOPs) to ensure transparency.

In early 2025, Sri Lanka successfully finalized its external debt restructuring. China, as the largest bilateral creditor, participated in "parallel" negotiations, agreed to extend repayment periods and lower interest rate. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) and the People’s Bank of China renewed a major currency swap agreement in January 2025, providing a vital liquidity buffer for Sri Lanka's recovering foreign reserves.

As of 2025, China has surpassed India as Sri Lanka’s largest source of imports, accounting for roughly 23.7% of the country's total import bill. Sri Lankan imports from China were mainly nitrogenous fertilizers, refined petroleum and electronics. Sri Lanka is trying to increase its exports to China, focusing on Ceylon Tea, activated carbon, and seafood. In 2025, Sri Lanka signed new protocols to facilitate the export of more agricultural products to the Chinese market, though no progress towards signing a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement.

During the year 2025, China’s two mega projects in Sri Lanka - the Sinopec refinery and the Port City Special Economic Zone (SEZ) - reached critical operational milestones. The $3.7 Billion Sinopec Refinery project located in Hambantota, is the single largest foreign direct investment (FDI) in Sri Lanka’s history. The project was fast-tracked during the state visit of President Dissanayake in January 2025.

The Sinopec refinery is designed as a greenfield project to process 200,000 barrels per day. The 100 percent Chinese funded venture included an integrated petrochemical complex and a crude oil storage terminal with direct pipeline connectivity to the Hambantota Port operated by China Merchants Port Holdings. Sinopec hopes to locally market up to 40 percent of oil production when the project is completed in three years.

As of 2025, China has surpassed India as Sri Lanka’s largest source of imports, accounting for roughly 23.7% of the country's total import bill. Sri Lankan imports from China were mainly nitrogenous fertilizers, refined petroleum and electronics. Sri Lanka is trying to increase its exports to China, focusing on Ceylon Tea, activated carbon, and seafood. In 2025, Sri Lanka signed new protocols to facilitate the export of more agricultural products to the Chinese market. However, there was no progress in the decade-long negotiations to sign a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement.

So far, so good

The year 2025 has seen surprising positive growth in many sectors of the country. Tourism sector crossed a historic milestone with the arrival of 2,333,797th tourist for 2025,surpassing the record of 2,333,796 visitors set in 2018. This has buoyed SL’s tourism authorities, who have set an ambitious revenue target of US $ 4.5 billion for 2026, aiming to attract 2.7 million visitors. The focus will now be on high-spending demographics and untapped geographical markets.

Marine traffic is another marker of the country's economic health. Total container volumes handled by the Colombo Port rose 7.1% year-on-year (YoY) to 6.92 million 20-foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in the first 10 months of 2025. supported by a strong expansion in domestic container traffic, even as transhipment activity continued to account for the bulk of throughput and remain central to Colombo’s regional hub role. Transhipment container volumes increased 5.1% YoY to 5.52 million TEUs during the Jan–Oct period, up from 5.25 mil TEUs a year earlier.

Sri Lanka Customs’ revenue collection surpassed Rs. 2.49 trillion as on December 26, marking a historic milestone in the Govt’s fiscal performance. Customs exceeded its original annual revenue target of Rs. 2,115 billion in early Nov 2025. The Finance Ministry’s revised target of Rs. 2,231 billion, was also surpassed by 26 December, with total collections reaching Rs. 2,497 billion.

Apparel industry has delivered a healthy growth of 5.42% during the first 11 months of 2025. Its cumulative exports have reached $ 4,571.99 million in the period. 

Brickbats

Ethnic reconciliation: Unfortunately, AKD has not done enough in 2025 on this count. I can dust up my recommendation in 2023 and say the least AKD can do is to implement the recommendations of the LLRC report in full. It requires neither amending or revising the constitution. As I said at the end of 2023, “it will reassure not only the people, but also the international community that Sri Lanka is serious about ethnic reconciliation.” But AKD is unlikely to do it in 2026 as he appears to be a little confused as Rajapaksas might revive the ethnic scare to recoup Sinhala ethnic support during the next  elections.

Crime and punishment:  While the long arm of law still could not find former minister John Fernando, for misuse of a bus, the CID has booked former minister Douglas Devananda, leader of the Eelam Peoples Democratic Party. He is now remanded until January 9, 2026. The CID arrested him after his personal firearm provided by the Sri Lanka Army in 2001 when he was a minister reportedly fell into the hands of members of an organized criminal gang. The pistol was found concealed in a forested area near a culvert in Weliweriya. The CID has also launched an investigation into 19 more firearms issued by the Sri Lanka Army to Devananda.

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Blog site: https://col.hariharan.net  Email: haridirect@gmail.com,] 

Sri Lanka: Disasters around the corner

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives November 2025 | South Asia Security Trends, December 2025 | https://www.security-risks.com  

Cyclone Ditwah

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) would remember his 58^th birthday on November 24 for long as the disastrous cyclone Ditwah struck a few days later. Before the cyclone struck, heavy rains in coastal cities and northern highlands flooded the infrastructure and caused landslides. Road and rail communication have been disrupted due to flooding. The inclement weather also resulted in cancel of flights. As the month ended, the cyclone seems to dissipate its energy while moving to Tamil Nadu coast, leaving Sri Lanka to grapple with the havoc caused by it. According the official figures released as on Nov 30, Cyclone Ditwah has claimed a total of 218 lives and 218 individuals are missing. The Disaster Management Centre (DMC) estimates nearly 1 million people (998,918) people individuals from 273,606 families within 25 districts have been affected.

Sri Lanka’s vulnerability lies in its geography – island nation exposed to both Bay of Bengal cyclones and monsoon-driven floods. World Data tells us that on an average, Sri Lanka experiences two cyclonic storms per year, though all may not make direct landfall. While recent disasters like Cyclone Ditwah are severe, none have surpassed the 1978 cyclone’s death toll of 740. That remains the highest recorded death toll from a single weather-related event in the country’s history. It struck Batticaloa and Trincomalee districts. Winds exceeded 220 km/h, flattening villages and destroying thousands of homes. Apart from the deaths tens of thousands are displaced. Of course, there were other disasters – 2017 floods and landslides in which over 200 people were killed. Flooding and landslides in Cyclone Bob-1 claimed 260 lives in 2003.

Sri Lanka faces dozens of other meteorological disasters annually, mostly floods, landslides, and extreme rainfall events, with over 90% of major disasters linked to meteorological phenomena. Sri Lanka does not have a single, permanent “dedicated disaster relief force” like India’s 16-battalion strong  National Disaster Response Force (NDRF). Instead, it manages disasters through a combination of its Disaster Management Centre (DMC) and the armed forces (Army, Navy, Air Force), which are placed on high alert and mobilized in real time during emergencies.

While the opposition was busy nit-picking government action, the so-called green horn President Dissanayake seems to have taken all the right actions to handle Cyclone Ditwah and its aftermath, though one might question his priorities. As Cyclone Ditwah unfolded after heavy rains lashed a few days earlier and national and district authorities had activated early warnings of worsening weather. Evacuation of vulnerable populations and search-and-rescue operations were on the way as the weather system intensified. The DMC was activated in time to strategize and coordinate the relief and rescue effort, particularly in using armed forces.

The President has asked all MPs to go back to their electorates and oversee the rescue and relief operations and the parliament cancelled two days sitting to enable them to do so. President Dissanayake declared a State of Public Emergency across the country to ensure public safety and safeguard the continuity of essential supplies and services. National mechanisms were formally activated in keeping with the National Disaster Management Act of 2005. The National Emergency Operation Plan of 2017 was automatically triggered during the crises to guide and coordinate the armed forces, district administrations and first responders. The President appointed a special council to control everything, including the armed forces. National Disaster Management Committee met on November 27 at the Ministry of Defence to assess the emergency situation. The President held extensive discussions at the meeting on various measures taken. Also present at the meeting were Prime Minister Harini Abayasuriya and Leader of the Opposition Sajith Premadasa apart from ministers and senior officials from various departments. The President also addressed the NGO representatives to coordinate their relief efforts with the armed forces.

The Ministry for Ports and Civil Aviation issued a directive to local and all international airlines operating in Sri Lanka to help stranded tourists. It included full waiver for flight cancellation and rebooking charges for passengers to reschedule their disrupted flights with minimum hassle.

Immigration authorities have announced special visa facilitation measures for foreign nationals, particularly tourists, affected by the flight cancellations or travel disruptions caused by the weather. They will be exempted from visa extension fees and overstay penalties. 

The aftermath of the cyclone will probably be an acid test for AKD’s leadership skills to ensure the government's operational and functional capability before and during the cyclone as politicians and media pundits dissect the government’s conduct in the coming weeks.

The other disaster in the making?

One of the strong points of President Dissanayake’s government is its strong stand against charges of fraud, corruption and narcotics trafficking against earlier governments. In this political scene, the opposition has used the government’s inaction to the Customs controversial release of 323 red-labelled containers from Colombo Port without carrying out the mandatory physical inspection. A report compiled by a four-member probe committee headed by Deputy Treasury Secretary handed over its report way back in July. It recommended that an internal inquiry should be held and disciplinary action taken against Customs officers who ignored recommendations made to conduct physical inspections of the containers. Opposition members have moved to introduce a resolution in parliament to appoint a Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC) to probe the matter. This first serious corruption allegation to hit the JVP/NPP government is likely to gain more adverse publicity for the government.

India’s assistance

India has come out on top once in assisting Sri Lanka during Cyclone Ditwah and its aftermath. It reinforces India’s role as first responder in the Indian Ocean Region. India has enhanced interoperability between Indian and Sri Lankan forces. More than all that it reinforces and operationalizes India’s SAGAR vision and MAHASAGAR initiative through tangible disaster relief, reflecting India’s “Neighbourhood First” and Vision MAHASAGAR introduced in 2023 for maritime security and capacity building for HADR among IOR countries.

As soon as Sri Lanka made a request for assistance, India launched Operation Sagar Bandhu Under SAGAR BANDHU operation, India’s assistance provided included two NDRF teams, Mi-17 V5 helicopters, INS Vikrant, INS Udaygiri, and INS Sukanya, and over 33 tonnes of humanitarian relief supplies (tents, blankets, food, medical aid, boats, advanced rescue tools delivered by IAF cargo aircraft and naval ships provided medical teams also. The two NDRF urban search and rescue teams (80 personnel) was sent to Colombo with boats, medical kits and advanced tools. The IAF Mi-17 V5 helicopters were deployed for rapid HADR missions.

At the strategic level, India’s Operation Sagar Bandhu should be viewed in the larger context of the 7th National Security Adviser level meeting of the Colombo Security Conclave held in New Delhi November 20, roughly a week before the weather turned virulent in Sri Lanka. Member States including Maldives, Mauritius, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh at the Conclave hosted by India. Seychelles participated as an observer was admitted as a full member at the meeting. Malaysia attended the meeting as a Guest.

The first Secretary General, appointed by India, presented a comprehensive review of activities to the CSC Member States on decisions taken at the 6th NSA level meeting in Mauritius in December 2023. Grouped as five pillars of cooperation the subjects include Maritime Safety and Security, Countering Terrorism and Radicalisation, Combating Trafficking and Transnational Organised Crime, Cyber Security and Protection of Critical Infrastructure and Technology and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief. The members discussed ways of enhancing cooperation through training and capacity building. They reiterated their commitment to the vision and objectives of CSC.

China will take note of Operation Sagar Bandhu as it has demonstrated an operational framework for assistance. The same applies probably to Turkiye, which is ta​king baby steps to build a naval coalition with Pakistan and Maldives.

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Blog site: https://col.hariharan.net  Email: haridirect@gmail.com,] 

Coming to terms with India’s role in Sri Lanka

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives October 2025 | South Asia Security Trends, November 2025 | https://www.security-risks.com  

The highlight of the month of October is Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya’s official visit to India from October 16 to 18.  This was 55 year-old former academic’s first visit to India after she became PM. She is no stranger to India, particularly New Delhi, having studied and graduated from the Hindu College with B.A. degree in Sociology. Mrs Amarasuriya went on to acquire a Master’s degree in Applied Anthropology from Australia and a doctorate in Anthropology from University of Edinburgh.  The visiting PM had just returned from a three-day visit China to attend the Global Leaders' Meeting on Women. During her China visit, she met with the Chinese President Xi Jinping, Chinese Premier Li Qiang and China’s top political advisor Wang Huning. Their talk was generally about joint venture and collaborations between the two countries particularly about the Colombo port city, the Hambantota port and the central expressway. She also lauded the commitment made by Xi to gender equality and women's empowerment globally during the opening ceremony of the Global Leaders' Meeting. Her visit to New Delhi immediately after the visit to China is significant.

Though Dr Amarasuriya was in Delhi to participate in NDTV’s World Summit, it was evident the visit was part of ruling NPP’s efforts to strengthen Sri Lanka’s bonds with India. At her meeting with PM Modi covered a wide spectrum of subjects. In PM Modi’s own words, “Our discussions covered a broad range of areas, including education, women’s empowerment, innovation, development cooperation and the welfare of our fishermen. As close neighbours, our cooperation holds immense importance for the prosperity of our two peoples as well as the shared region.” Dr Amarasuriya, on her part, said, “It was very good. We discussed how we can continue to maintain the good relations that we have established. Prime Minister Modi gave me quite a few ideas about the education reforms that are going on here. We discussed our respective policies.” She did not avoid the sensitive issue of fishermen either; she said, “That is an ongoing issue and something that needs to be discussed. We need to protect the livelihoods of our fishermen as well, but we understand that that’s a sensitive issue and we will continue to talk about it.”

Her visit to NITI Aayog, policy coordination think tank, in New Delhi is of special significance. The visit focused on fostering deeper collaboration between the two countries and sharing insights on India’s transformative initiatives in the sectors of infrastructure, education, tourism, skill development, and artificial. She showed special interest in understanding how NITI Aayog functions alongside central ministries and states—linking analysis, evidence-based policymaking, and feedback from citizens into effective governance. She also shared Sri Lanka’s own reform journey and the need for institutions that promote policy coherence, evidence-based decisions, and consistency beyond political cycles.

The discussions provided an overview of India’s ongoing initiatives such as PM Gati Shakti for multimodal infrastructure planning, the National Education Policy 2020 for holistic and inclusive learning, collaborative opportunities in tourism and cultural exchange, and frontier technologies including artificial intelligence and digital governance. Presentations made on the occasion particularly the Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement (ETCA), PM Gati Shakti, showcasing integrated infrastructure planning and the potential application of India’s multimodal logistics model to Kandy City, Education Reforms under NEP 2020 show future areas of Indo-Sri Lanka projects. While technology-driven learning systems will benefit Sri Lanka’s tourism, Sri Lanka can benefit from collaboration in digital innovation and governance, to enable NPP to deliver systemic improvements. As NITI Aayog said “The visit underscored the shared vision of India and Sri Lanka to deepen strategic partnerships, promote sustainable development, and leverage innovation and skills to address regional challenges and opportunities. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to advancing a knowledge-based, technology-driven, and people-centric partnership under India’s “Neighbourhood First” and ”MAHASAGAR” frameworks.

The extra effort put in by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led NPP government of President AK Dissanayaka (AKD) and PM Amarasuriya to strengthen ties with India is remarkable for its ideological transformation. The core tenets of the JVP's early ideology were outlined in the "Five Lectures" delivered by its founder, Rohana Wijeweera, to its cadres. These lectures covered: an analysis of the local economy and high unemployment rates among youth, critiques of the "old left" parties' failure to achieve a true revolution and anti-imperialist stance (which explicitly included criticism of Indian "expansionism") and the necessity of a sudden, violent armed insurrection to seize power. 

The JVP has historically viewed India as an expansionist power and a threat to Sri Lanka's sovereignty. The party consistently criticized India's involvement in Sri Lanka's internal affairs, fearing a potential loss of independence. The arrival of the Indian Peace-Keeping Force (IPKF) and the signing of the Indo-Sri Lanka Accord in 1987, which aimed to address the Tamil ethnic conflict through devolution of power, was a primary catalyst for the JVP's second and more violent insurrection between 1987 and 1989. Rohana Wijeweera gave specific lectures against "Indian irredentism" as part of the party's core indoctrination. The JVP leadership even framed Tamil demands for self-determination as being aligned with U.S. imperialist interests.

The JVP’s transformation from its India-hating revolutionary Marxist-Leninist philosophy to accept a democratic socialist framework came after the failure of its two violent insurrections (in 1971 and 1987-89). Of course, the ideological transformation was aided by the collapse of the Soviet Union.  Its evolution from insurrection to democratic engagement involved abandoning armed struggle. However, the reframed ideology has retained its leftist orientation by reinterpreting Marxist principles to suit pluralist democracy. It features emphasis on anti-imperialism, social justice and economic equity while abandoning authoritarian socialism.  The JVP’s present Avatar has embraced electoral politics, and rebranded its ideology around anti-corruption, civic empowerment, and inclusive governance. The NPP coalition’s success in the last presidential and parliamentary elections show people have welcomed its focus on grassroot democracy, transparency and participatory governance aligned to democratic norms. So far, JVP MPs parliamentary behaviour has been more constructive.

The Frontline Socialist Party (FSP) which shares ideological roots with JVP maintaining a separate identity, is a not a formal member of the NPP coalition. It considers itself as the inheritors of JVP’s revolution, retaining its anti-Indian stance. It often criticises the NPP government for its pragmatic alliance sacrificing ideology. The FSP has questioned NPP’s recent deals with political actors to help NPP gain control of local councils, branding them as betrayal of anti-establishment principles. An activist of the Party Wasantha Mudalige has recently criticised the NPP government for allowing India to expand investments in the strategic Trincomalee District “at the expense of people” (whatever that means). Recently, when the President visited SLAF Academy in Trincomalee, the FSP activist said the government had “brazenly facilitated high-profile Indian projects, such as the Trincomalee oil tank farm project, launched decades ago. He alleged that the NPP was pursuing an agenda inimical to Sri Lanka, contrary to what the JVP/NPP had been saying over the years. Another FSP spokesman said the government seemed to have adopted a very similar strategy in the Mannar District, where the people have launched protests on controversial wind power projects. None of those NPP lawmakers, from the Northern and Eastern Provinces, spoke on behalf of the people, for obvious reasons as the government was bent on appeasing India, regardless of consequences. The FSP has recently called a press conference in Colombo where the party leader Duminda Nagamuwa questioned India’s motive in implementing housing projects in many parts of the country. He pointed out that there were so many people without proper housing in India, while New Delhi was engaged in mega housing projects here. He was referring to India’s announcement that it will support the construction of 14,000 houses for the Indian-Origin Tamil community in Sri Lanka under Phase IV of the Indian Housing Project. Officially the project was launched at a ceremony on October 12, 2025, attended by Sri Lankan President and Indian High Commissioner to Sri Lanka.  

Unlike the Rajapaksas, AKD seems to have abandoned personality-based leadership style and adopted an inclusive leadership for JVP’s NPP coalition with affiliate wings – NPP Youth and Progressive Women’s Collective. Its core strength o appears to be pragmatic governance, mass appeal and reformist agenda. In pragmatic governance and reformist agenda, India’s learnings and assistance have become indispensable to Sri Lanka; the cultural and historical connections give India a feet up in tackling Chinese competition in Sri Lanka.  Apparently, its form has appealed to the people as NPP accounts for 159 out of 225 parliament members and 266 out of 341 local body members.

However, while managing the coalition, AKD must manage JVP’s lingering residual radicalism visible in its rhetoric, centralized party control and difficulties in managing ideological purity with coalition politics. Otherwise, NPP runs the risk of being marginalised in the cut throat politics of Sri Lanka. As far as relations with India are concerned, AKD’s problem is likely to be in handling the sizeable population of India-baiters present in almost all parties. The Indo-Sri Lanka Accord and 13^th Amendment and Indian poachers fishing in Sri Lankan waters are their rallying point to trigger anti-Indian propaganda.

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Website: https://.col.hariharan@net  Email: haridirect@gmail.com,]

Trump's MAGA effect on Sri Lanka

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives September 2025 | South Asia Security Trends, October 2025 | https://www.security-risks.com    

The highlight of the month of September is President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s visit to attend and speak at the UN General Assembly. AKD posed for the photograph with US President Donald Trump showing his thumb up and First Lady Melania Trump at the dinner reception hosted by the US President for world leaders attending the UN General Assembly on Sept 23. The UN voted for recognising Palestine as a member; Sri Lanka had no problem with this as it had already recognised it. But Sri Lanka did not follow most of the members who walked out when Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rose to address the The highlight of the month of September is President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s visit to attend and speak at the UN General Assembly. AKD posed for the photograph with US President Donald Trump showing his thumb up and First Lady Melania Trump at the dinner reception hosted by the US President for world leaders attending the UN General Assembly on Sept 23. The UN voted for recognising Palestine as a member; Sri Lanka had no problem with this UN General Assembly, indicating its diplomacy is nuanced.

AKD’s UN address focused on the urgent need to end the war in Gaza. More than 20,000 Lankans are working in Israel. Many more are poised to take up employment in Israel, as caregivers and as workers in agriculture and construction sectors. Sri Lanka is also a destination for an increasing number of Israel tourists. AKD is to be commended that in spite of this, he minced no words in expressing Sri Lanka’s distress at the  ongoing catastrophe in Gaza. “It has been turned into an open prison full of pain and suffering.” He referred to his fight against corruption describing it as “an obstruction to development and global well-being and a cause of poverty." He gave a memorable quote: “Fighting corruption is dangerous. But not fighting it presents even graver risks.”

With Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) being implemented vigorously, the strategic turbulence in the Indo-Pacific with US-India relations at the bottom after two decades. Its after effects are sure to affect small island nations like Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean. The impact of MAGA and its strategic turbulence likely to be faced is discussed in detail in this issue of Sri Lanka perspectives. 

AKD ended the month with a trip to Japan. Both in the US and Japan, he addressed Sri Lankan migrants. His speech emphasised the achievements of his year-long rule “would go down in Sri Lankan history as one in which no ethnic conflict arose”. He claimed “the past year, the government has already fulfilled a significant part of the people’s expectations for change, by rebuilding the collapsed economy to ensure stability, strengthening the rule of law, establishing corruption-free governance and making the state machinery more efficient.” Sri Lanka had succeeded in safeguarding balance in its diplomatic relations. It was refreshing to see the JVP leader emphasising “Our country is home to diverse ethnic and religious communities, each with its own unique culture. Therefore, our country is a country full of diverse people. This diversity is one of our greatest strengths, and to move the nation forward, it is essential to foster unity among all people.” 

Trump’s MAGA impact on Sri Lanka

Trump’s MAGA fallout—particularly  his second-term policies—has triggered a cascade of strategic and economic shifts across the Indo-Pacific, with direct and indirect consequences for Sri Lanka and India.

The Trump administration's freeze on USAID funding, initiated on January 20, 2025, is impacting a wide range of development and humanitarian projects in Sri Lanka. Some of the key projects affected include Women In Need (WIN) whose 85% operations are funded by USAID. WIN supports survivors of domestic violence through counselling, legal aid and provides emergency shelters. Their Crisis Centre in Ratnapura which served 950 women in 2024 runs the risk of being shut down entirely. Four emergency shelters, despite being full and jointly supported by the Ministry of Women and Children’s Affairs run the risk of closure. 

USAID was the largest single donor to Sri Lankan NGOs and CSOs, contributing around Rs 15 billion in 2024. Hundreds of local NGOs face operational paralysis. Elon Musk, appointed by Trump to dismantle USAID, has alleged that $7.9 million was spent on training Sri Lankan journalists to avoid binary-gendered language.

Sri Lanka’s response to the abrupt halt of USAID funding has been a mix of  strategising and seeking alternative sources of funding. The USAID funding for Sri Lanka amounted to $53 million as of September 2025. The USAID had supported over 565,000 direct beneficiaries; in addition, USAID-funded projects had supported 400+ staff.

The government has not announced any plan to replace the USAID aid crunch. This is understandable as budgetary constraints and political priorities give limited scope for reworking. The government is unable to respond to local NGOs' suggestions to step in critical sectors like domestic violence support, education and food security. Another important aspect is the loss of key technical assistance provided under USAID to parliamentary committees. These included the Committee on Public Finance, limiting its functioning.

There are limitations for other UN agencies like the UNDP, FAO and UNAIDS to step in as their own funding has been under crunch for some time as POTUS has also curbed US funding to UN agencies.

The EU and Japan have traditionally supported Sri Lanka’s development, but no major new pledges have been announced to fill the USAID vacuum, though they have expressed concern.

Some Sri Lankan companies are stepping up with Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives, especially in education and nutrition. Sri Lankan diaspora groups in Canada, the UK, and Australia have been mobilizing funds for specific NGOs, particularly those working on gender-based violence and youth empowerment. These efforts are neither centrally focused nor coordinated at national level by the government.

Some of the USAID projects - especially those linked to DEI (Diversity, Equality and Inclusion), media and civil society training are politically sensitive. They are likely to die down unless the government steps in; any such intervention has to probably figure in IMF approved economic recovery plans.

There are limitations to economic aid from India, China and Japan which have their own reworked priorities and conditionalities due to Trump’s MAGA in action. For Sri Lanka it is going to be a big economic challenge; it may be compelled to take a re-look at some of its development projects and rework them.

In the coming weeks, we can expect the turbulence in strategic relations in the Indo-Pacific to settle down. The writing on the wall is clear for Sri Lanka: its balancing act between India, China and the US is going to get tougher with a more clearly defined Pakistan-US relations with its effect on India and China. We can expect AKD to carefully tread his foreign policy issues, focus  on  internal issues to clean up issues of governance, particularly law and order. We can expect him to bring to book more political leaders, already shorn off their self-acquired privileges.

Tailpiece – LGBTIQ Tourism: Sri Lanka Tourism has officially endorsed a project initiated by rights organisation EQUAL GROUND to promote LGBTIQ tourism, recognising its potential to diversify tourism markets and position Sri Lanka as a safe, inclusive, and welcoming destination for all travellers. Archbishop of Colombo Cardinal Malcom Ranjith has criticised the move.

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com, Website: https://col.hariharan.info]      

Three Questions on Trump's MAGA effect on India

Col R Hariharan

[Three questions raised by a media scribe are answered here]

Is the US working against Indian interests?

This question cannot be answered in the binary of yes or no. It has to be answered in the backdrop of the robust defence partnership that has grown during the last two decades between India and the US. Both the countries have signed several key agreements that enhance military cooperation, interoperability and strategic alignment between them. These include

·      LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) allowing both countries to use each other's military facilities for replenishment, enhancing operational reach and logistics support. 

·      COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) signed in 2018, facilitates secure communications between U.S. and Indian military systems, enabling interoperability during joint operations. 

·      BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement) signed in 2020, allows sharing of geospatial intelligence and satellite data for improved targeting and navigation. 

·      ISA (Industrial Security Agreement) signed in 2019, enables the transfer of classified technology and information to Indian private defence firms, boosting co-development and co-production.

·      Last year, India signed SOSA (Security of Supply Arrangement), which ensures priority access to defence goods and services during emergencies, strengthening supply chain resilience. The two countries have signed an MoU on Liaison Officers that enable deployment of Indian officers to U.S. commands (starting with U.S. Special Operations Command), improving coordination and information sharing. They have also signed a 10-Year Defence Framework for long-term roadmap for defence cooperation, focusing on joint production, technology transfer, and strategic alignment. 

·      The Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance (ASIA) is a collaborative initiative for Underwater Domain Awareness (UDA), reflecting growing interest in maritime security. Besides these, India and US cooperation in space have moved beyond astronaut training and commercial transactions. 

·      A joint Earth-observing satellite using dual frequency synthetic aperture radar is scheduled for launch from India's Satish Dhawan Space Center under the NASA-ISRO NISAR agreement.

·      India is also a member of the Quad - quadrilateral framework - consisting of Australia, India, Japan and the US which came into existence in the wake of Covid pandemic, to enhance supply chain cooperation following Chinese domination of chip and rare earths industries.

These agreements have enabled India to acquire from the US MH-60R Seahawks, Apache helicopters and P-81 maritime patrol aircraft, enhancing India's airlift, logistics and surveillance capacities. India's maritime surveillance and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific has now become reality. GE has become the supplier for engines for LCA Tejas light combat aircraft. Co-production deals are underway for Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stryker combat vehicles. In fact, India is the first non-treaty partner to whom the US has offered the Sea Guardian UAS under the Missile Technology Control.  

This is perhaps the reason why PM Narendra Modi reacts after a lot of deliberation to POTUS Donald Trump's provocative comments and moves affecting good relations with India. These include slapping 50+50 % tariff for energy trade with Russia and increasing visa fee to $100,000 and cutting down on visas for foreign students.

PM Modi probably understands Trump's guiding lights better than others. Trump is guided by "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) - a nationalist framework that emphasizes American sovereignty, economic self-interest, and a rejection of globalist "entanglements". His foreign policy, which is marked by transactionalism, unilateralism and a focus on domestic revival over international commitments. As a result, promoting domestic manufacturing and imposing tariffs to protect American industries has been adopted as his state policy.

He has reduced the US involvement in multilateral organisations like the UN, WHO and even NATO. He advocates military deterrence while avoiding foreign wars. Trump also emphasises traditional values and national pride as fundamental to his policy pronouncements. As a result, the Trump-Vance Doctrine seeks to avoid open ended military commitments forcing its foreign allies to spend more on defence.  He treats foreign relations as deals rather than diplomatic initiatives. As a result short term gains and personal leverage have replaced his moves even with long-term allies like Japan and NATO members. 

Trump has adopted tariff driven trade policy, imposing sweeping tariffs on imports to rebalance trade deficits and revive American industry. This has not only affected US relations with allies but has skewed global supply chains.  As a commentator says in the Centre for International Governance Innovation, Trump's foreign policy increasingly centers around his own image, shifting from MAGA to MTGA (Make Trump Great Again) to assert his dominant personality replacing ideology driven US foreign policy doctrines like Bush's neoconservatism or Obama's multilateralism. His repeated claims of mediating in the recent Op Sindoor conflict between India and Pakistan despite India's stout denial, bringing peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan and Cambodia and Thailand also vouch for his quest for the Nobel Peace Prize. 

"Is Washington seeking to contain India strategically? What do you make of the developments in the region and beyond?" 

These questions have to be examined in Trump's ideological backdrop discussed earlier. In my view, there are three prongs to Trump's US policy approach to India: 

a. Use of US trade talks with India as a bargaining chip to compel India to whittle down its close relations with Russia and eliminate threat posed to American unilateralism by multilateral alliances like BICS. 

b. Restrict India's ambitions to South and Central Asia by using Deep State to trigger anti-India sentiments in its neighbourhood. I see a pattern in the popular uprisings noticed particularly in Bangladesh and Nepal, though in Sri Lanka it was different.  Reviving US-Pakistan strategic relations is also part of this strategy apart from US ambitions to gain control over Afghanistan and Iran (as also the abolishing US' waiver given to India over Chabahar port from US sanctions slapped on Iran).

How should India perceive growing U.S.-Pakistan bonhomie and perceived U.S. attempts to increase foothold in South Asia, including in Afghanistan? Is that something that New Delhi should be concerned about?

India should be wary of developments in US-Pakistan bonhomie. Perhaps, time for India to read the red lines on Pakistan in every foreign policy palaver with the US. I see the US initiative in Pakistan as more than keeping India engaged. It will help America tackle Iran (as the possibility of Iran-Russia-China triumvirate emerging stronger cannot be ruled out). As a part of it, the US probably hopes to regain control of Bagram airbase as a trade off for helping Taliban-ruled Afghanistan to regain international recognition. It will also cut down India's independent quest to repair relations with the Afghan Taliban. I see the recent strategic cooperation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan as part of the US initiative to help the US' anti-Iran strategy.   

India should adopt a policy not subject to the vagaries of Trump's US policy. India should not hyphenate its approach to the US to the latter's Pakistan policy. One can expect the scaling down of US rhetoric on India as concessions are given to US trade in the talks. Already, $100,000-visa is a little watered down by the US. It has announced that it is not for renewals. We can expect conditions for student visas also to be watered down as universities are clamouring. It is good to remember under POTUS Trump, foreign policy is irrevocably linked to making "deals".