SRI LANKA PRESIDENT’S PRIORITY IN 2023

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives December 2022 | South Asia Security Trends, January 2023  www.security-risk.com

Learnings from 2022

Sri Lanka did not cover itself with glory in the year 2022. But the year is a remarkable one in Sri Lanka' political history.  The spontaneous Aragalaya protestors   demonstrated that they cannot be taken for granted by their elected representatives. It did not matter if they were Rajapaksas - their heroes of yesterday. The protestors’ battle cry “GotaGoGama” saw the unseemly termination of the rule of the Terminator of Tamil separatists - President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. It has shown that getting elected to the high office of President is not enough; it lasts only so long as people accept it.

Events overtook the Machiavellian plans of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. He was forced to quit home and office in the face of massive public protests. It showed enjoying parliamentary support is not enough to sustain power, when people are determined to throw you out. The Hindu correspondent in Colombo Meera Srinivasan eloquently puts it:“When you hear ordinary citizens articulate their desire for a better future and country, the message resonates across borders and contexts. At one level, Sri Lankans were resisting leaders who they held responsible for their economic distress. At another, a mass uprising showed that no leader is invincible, and no might is bigger than people’s power.”

The transformation of seven-time Prime Minister and nominated member of parliament Ranil Wickremesinghe, brought in as “night watchman” PM, as President in a crisis, validates another clichéd aphorism: “fortune favours the brave.” But Wickremesinghe, a veteran of many political battles for survival, had the courage to step into the shaky chair. He quickly put together his jerry-built government to stave (save?) the country from plunging into chaos.

The President’s galaxy of ministers are mostly old faces with new labels, with a sprinkle of younger aspirants.  It is still intact there, to usher in the new year, disproving the naysayers. This showed that President Wickremesinghe had a much better understanding of crisis management than the Rajapaksas. Despite the anachronism of his survival as President depends upon pro-Rajapaksa MPs, evidently most people feel his priorities are right. Otherwise, Aragalaya protests would have probably continued. It also showed that people are ready to give the leader time and space to get his act together. President Wickremesinghe’s actions show that he is still wary of muted Aragalaya protestors watching from the wings. Though the threat of Aragalaya has taken a backseat from the political mainstream, hopefully it will force the political class to prioritise people’s needs first.

It is the historical Aragalaya movement that propelled President Wickremesinghe to power. It showed the failure of the traditional tools of state instruments of power including security personnel to quell the protests, Though the movement has seemingly dissipated now, its subterranean presence can be seen now in protests by students and staff in universities, among monks and civil society organisations. So, it is not enough to find berths for youth representatives in advisory bodies of the government. Good governance, rule of law and impartial judiciary will satisfy most of them.

Corruption and cronyism seem to be endemic in every action of the government. For long people have put up with it. The Aragalaya movement has sown the seeds of distrust of the political class in the minds of the people. If Sri Lanka has to survive as a stable democracy, politicians must regain the trust of the people. In this context, Winston Churchill’s words in the House of Commons come to mind. “At the bottom of all the tributes paid to democracy is the little man, walking into the little booth, with a little pencil, making a little cross on a little bit of paper. No amount of rhetoric or voluminous discussion can possibly diminish the overwhelming importance of that point.”

As Sir Martin Gilbert, leading historian, and Churchill’s official biographer, says: “Parliamentary democracy is an easy concept to grasp but a difficult one to sustain. Throughout the Twentieth Century, and into our present Twenty First Century, the institutions and ideals of parliamentary democracy have been under continual threat. The power of totalitarian regimes to dominate their own people is – and remains – attractive to those who wish to control the life of a nation without checks and balances.” These words hold true to Sri Lanka’s present situation as China with its increasing global clout might appear as an attractive alternative. A dissatisfied population may be easily swayed to ignore that it is a one-party “democracy” of 21^st century Communism of the Chinese kind.

Agenda for 2023

Sri Lanka is stepping into 2023 with the economy limping on crutches with the tourism industry and export trade taking a beating. The promised IMF recovery package is yet to materialize. Peoples’ woes of continuing price rise, shortage of essential food stuff and energy resources are making life difficult. The scars of Covid pandemic are still there and the flare up of a new variant spreading fast in China, European countries and the US portends ill of a revival of the pandemic in the new year. There is no end in sight to the early end to the Ukraine war. This has queered the strategic stability of Sri Lanka’s environment. Its fall out is being felt in Sri Lanka’s relations with major powers competing for dominating the Indo-Pacific.  

The President's agenda for 2023 will have to be planned in this environment. The year 2023 is going to be a year of long weekends with nine of them falling on Fridays and Mondays. In other words, it will be a year of less than nine months of work. So whatever Sri Lanka plans to achieve will have to factor time as an invaluable resource. In management terms, this would mean investing in short-term projects that yield quick results to stoke the feeling of achievement to raise the morale of the people. Indian experience has shown extensive computerisation of government systems can achieve this. 

The first item on the President’s agenda for 2023 seems to be to resolve “the Tamil issue” by February 4, 2023 before the nation celebrates 75^th anniversary of Sri Lanka’s independence in March. Ethnic reconciliation had been featured as an important item on the agenda of all presidents, except for Gotabaya Rajapaksa. The veteran hero of the separatist war, on becoming president made it clear that Sri Lanka was for the majority - Sinhala Buddhists. Of course, despite all the fanfare with which the ethnic issue has been featured in the agenda of successive presidents no discernible results have been achieved. Of course, the only exception is the 13th amendment that created provincial councils. Even that was sent to the halfway house, when the Rajapaksas prioritised pleasing the Sinhala Buddhist constituency, over reconciliation of minorities.  

President Wickremesinghe is a past master in using ethnic reconciliation as an effective political tool to garner public support. He had spearheaded the UNP protests against the 2000 draft constitution bill moved by President Chandrika Kumaratunga. The UNP MPs set fire to the draft of the bill in the parliament. The draft 2000 constitution contained power sharing proposals that could have ended the ethnic confrontation. It never saw the light of the day and Sri Lanka missed an opportunity to bring the ethnic issue to a closure. It was a costly political expediency that cost the nation dearly, as 100,000 people lost their lives in the Eelam wars that followed.

The Yahapalana government of President Maithripala Sirisena with PM Wickremesinghe went to the extent of preparing a draft constitution fielded by the constituent assembly. But it never saw the light of the day perhaps because both the President and PM had their own political agenda. Considering this background, President Wickremesinghe’s deadline for resolving the Tamil issue by February 4, 2023 seems unrealistic. However, the President appeared to be making the right moves – all party conferences, palaver with the leaders of Tamil, Muslim and like minded leaders of other political parties. He has opened offices in Vavuniya and Mannar to keep his ear to the grind wheel.

But the President must reckon with the elephant in the room – the Sinhala Buddhist rural masses. They need to be convinced that the Tamil issue is the priority when the whole country is locked in the struggle for survival. Can President Wickremesinghe convince them to resolve the four decade long ethnic issue eating into the vitals of Sri Lanka? Only time will tell.

[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com  Website: https://col.hariharan.info]    

Sri Lanka: Ukraine war muddies economic recovery

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives February 2022| South Asia Security Trends, March 2022| www.security-risk.com

The announcement of the Ceylon Electricity Board that a three -hour power cut will be imposed daily from March 1 is symbolic of the failure of the government to finance its fuel imports which has crippled daily life. The power cut only formalises the erratic power shut downs Sri Lankans had been facing during the month. To meet Sri Lanka’s energy crisis, India delivered 40,000 tons of diesel and petrol during the month. Earlier in the month, India had agreed to extend a line of credit for $500 million to Sri Lanka to meet its urgent energy requirements as part of the economic package discussed in January.

Sri Lanka’s inflation in Colombo climbed to 15.1 percent in February 2022, up from the 13-year high of 14.2 percent in December 2021. It is not only fuel, but essential food items and medicines were also in short supply.

The commerce ministry has signed an agreement with Myanmar for import of rice to replenish dwindling food stocks. According to the agreement, Myanmar is expected to supply up to 100,000 tonnes of white rice and 50000 tonnes of parboiled rice. China is said to be committed to donate one million tonnes of rice; it is expected to arrive by March 2022.  Trade minister Bandula Jayawardene during his visit to Pakistan is said to have requested for a credit line of $200 million for imports from Pakistan.

The Rajapaksa government continued grope in the dark to find a solution to the forex crisis that has become an existential threat. According to Sri Lanka media, even after two cabinet meetings discussed the subject, no road map to recovery seems to be in the horizon.

Already President Rajapaksa has disowned the responsibility for the economic crisis, attributing it to Covid pandemic and the inherited issues of economic mismanagement. But his government has to own up responsibility for the policy confusion in the handling of the economic recovery. The rationing of food was announced, only to be cancelled due to public protest. Same was the case when the use of pesticide was banned, only to be lifted when farmers loudly protested.  Another example quoted in the media is the government plan to withdraw the Special Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill aimed at simplifying the present tax structure by consolidating several taxes as a single tax, following the Supreme Court’s advice that it requires a two-thirds majority in parliament and a referendum to enact it as a law.

There was also lack of discipline in handling imports. According to Minister Mahinda Amaraweera even in the midst of financial crunch, around $600 billion was spent in 2021 on importing non-essential commodities. Majority of the products imported were items that could be produced in Sri Lanka. These included vegetables, fruits, honey etc. Mobile phone imports totalled $386.73 million. He said the primary challenge facing the country was the dollar crisis. “When we earn $100, we must pay off $115 in debt,” he explained.

The twin foreign exchange earners – foreign remittances and tourism – are facing their own uncertainties. Expatriate workers remittances took a steep fall, touching a 13-year low of $ 259 million in January 2022, adding to the Central Bank’s challenges. This indicates the failure of Central Bank’s incentive measures to lure the Sri Lankan diaspora to use official banking channels for remittances, after it pegged an unrealistic exchange rate cap of SL Rs 203 per dollar. Evidently, expatriate workers are now using unofficial channels to realise around SL Rs 260 for a dollar in the black market.

The government eased the Covid restrictions on tourist arrivals and vigorously promoted tourism. It patted itself, when tourist arrivals hit the all-time high of 93,582 tourists in February, pushing the cumulative figure to 175,909 in 2022. However, the war in Ukraine has come as a rude shock, because Russia had topped the tourist arrivals during this year with 28,932 tourists so far. It was followed by India (24,141), UK (17,749), Ukraine (13,039) and Germany (12,779).  In February, a total of 14,914 Russian tourists and 5,267 Ukrainians arrived. With the war on, Ukrainians are unlikely to travel; in fact, around 4000 Ukrainian tourists are stranded in the island, after the eruption of war.

Stringent economic sanctions slapped on Russia is likely to affect Russian tourist arrivals. Moreover, the value of rouble is rapidly going down. The closing of airspaces of many EU countries to Russian planes could also affect tourism. Media reports quoting a Colombo-based think tank said Sri Lanka imported 45 percent of wheat, more than half of soyabeans, sunflower oil, peas and asbestos requirements from Russia and Ukraine. Already, the war in Ukraine has resulted in steep increase of international oil prices as Russia is major source of oil and natural gas. Both Russia and Ukraine are also major importers of Sri Lanka tea. in the uncertain days to follow during the Ukraine war.

Overall, Sri Lanka will be facing multiple challenges in handling its economy if the war continues. The economic crisis has brought to the fore the rumblings within the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Party (SLPP)-led coalition with President Rajapaksa’s style of governance. Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) General Secretary Dayasiri Jayasekara said that some of the members of the ruling coalition would be presenting a set of alternative proposals on March 2. He said “We really didn’t have any other option as the SLPP doesn’t believe in consultations among the partners.” According to him, of the 145 parliament members of the coalition, 30 members including 14 from SLFP are in the dissident group. He said the SLFP leader Maithripala Sirisena, would also attend the launch of the alternative proposals on March 2. This is symbolic of the SLFP’s reassertion of its national identity, which had been subsumed under the SLPP-dominated coalition.

In the midst of all this, the 49^th session of the UN Human Rights Commission will be discussing Human Rights Commissioner Michele Bachelet scathing report on Sri Lanka and Sri Lanka’s replies thereof, on March 3. Commissioner Bachelet’s report has strongly criticised the amendments proposed to Sri Lanka’s Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA). She has also called upon the attorney general to function independently and wants action on 2019 Easter Sunday massacres, a festering issue among Christian community in Sri Lanka.

Both Foreign Minister GL Peiris and Justice Minister Ali Sabry are taking part in the event. They will have to tread carefully at the UNHRC session as it could impact the future of EU’s GSP Plus preferential concessional tariff scheme. EU-Sri Lanka Joint Commission meeting held on February 8, had noted that important elements of the PTA had not been included in the Amended Bill gazette.

Overall, the Rajapaksa government is heading for turbulent times, as its economic troubles are getting critically interwoven with the spill over of the war in Ukraine and its impact on the power play in Indo-Pacific theatre.

[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com  Website: https://col.hariharan.info]    

 

Repairing ragged edges of India-Sri Lanka ties may take more work than meets the eye

President Rajapaksa despite his reassuring words to India, has not endeared himself to India in his actions

R Hariharan |September 09, 2021| First Post | Home – News |

https://www.firstpost.com/india/repairing-ragged-edges-of-india-sri-lanka-ties-may-take-more-work-than-meets-the-eye-9949281.html

 

There is no doubt India-Sri Lanka relations have run into rough patches during the last few years. Nothing illustrates this better than the fact that the chair of Sri Lanka's ambassador to India had remained vacant for a year so far. The High Commissioner-designate to India, Milinda Moragoda is in New Delhi only now to assume the office, even though media had hinted at his appointment as early as August 2020. Of course, the delay in Sri Lanka appointing the high commissioner to New Delhi can be conveniently attributed to the Delta variant of the COVID-19 pandemic that hit both countries. However, it also highlights President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s domestic preoccupations overtaking the need to reinvigorate the relations with India, which had become ragged since he assumed power in November 2019.

Of course, the Sri Lankan president visited New Delhi within ten days of assuming office, after Jaishankar, minister for external affairs, flew to Colombo to convey Indian Prime Minister's invitation to visit India. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s visit to New Delhi so soon after assuming office showed that he was conscious of the unique relations existing between the two countries, umbilically linked by geography, culture, religion and shared historical experience.

According to media reports, the Sri Lankan President during his meeting with PM Modi stated that India was the “closest neighbour and longstanding friend” and “whilst, with India the cooperation was multi-faceted with priority given to security-related matters, with other countries [obviously hinting at India’s concern over China’s presence in Sri Lanka], the initiatives for cooperation are by and large, economic and commercial.” He is said to have told the PM that “he would not allow any third force to come in between cooperation with India.

However, much water has flown in the Palk strait since 2019. There has been a lot of churning up in the internal and external environment of not only India and Sri Lanka, but the Indo-Pacific region as a whole. All the neighbours of India, except Maldives and Bhutan, have joined China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), firming up China’s presence in India’s immediate neighbourhood. India’s relations with China have irreversibly changed from cooperation to confrontation on many fronts, after Chinese troops intruded across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh in May 2020 resulting in the clash at Galwan post, causing casualties on both sides. Even after many rounds of talks to defuse the situation, force levels on both sides of the LAC continue to be high. With the Taliban back in power in Afghanistan, China is likely to play an increasingly assertive role in the region in partnership with Pakistan. This is likely to add further complications to the tenuous relations between the big Asian neighbours.

In the face of China’s increasing belligerence in the Indo-Pacific, India, the US, Japan and Australia have come together to build their collective strength through the Quadrilateral framework. The security relations between the members are also being scaled up. In fact, Indo-US security relations are closer now, than ever before. With these moves, the centre of gravity of global strategic power is shifting to the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), with Sri Lanka emerging as its pivot. China’s investment in developing maritime and infrastructure assets in Sri Lanka are an important part of China’s Indo-Pacific security. We can expect China’s influence in Sri Lanka to grow wider, deeper and all-embracing in the coming years. Sri Lanka as the vanguard of the South Asian region is likely to find it difficult to safeguard its national interests as strategic pressures build up in the Indian Ocean.

President Rajapaksa despite his reassuring words to India, has not endeared himself to India in his actions. Under his watch, the trilateral agreement with India and Japan to jointly develop the strategically important Colombo Eastern Container Terminal (ECT) was given up, on specious grounds. The Colombo Port City (CPC) special economic zone coming up in reclaimed land in the heart of Colombo will be controlled by the China Harbour Engineering Co which holds a 99-year lease on 85 percent of the land. It will be overlooking the Colombo port through which 70 percent of India’s container traffic moves. So, India has real concerns as the CPC SEZ would legitimise the presence of the Chinese. It would involve a large influx of Chinese in trade, commerce, logistics, communication, finance, infrastructure and security.

In January 2021, Sri Lanka has approved a Chinese firm – Sinosar Etechwinee Joint Venture – to instal hybrid renewable energy systems in Nainativu, Delft and Analaitivu islands located in Palk Bay, barely 50 km from Tamil Nadu coast.

These Chinese assets can become hotbeds of Chinese intelligence and be used to eavesdrop and interfere with Indian communication, track ship movements and enhance electronic warfare capacity. A greater Indian concern would be their ability to buy influence over Sri Lankan politics and trade to suit China’s goals. India’s growing concerns on these developments are known to Sri Lanka. And India will be factoring these aspects in its relations with the island neighbour.

These Chinese assets can become hotbeds of Chinese intelligence and be used to eavesdrop and interfere with Indian communication, track ship movements and enhance electronic warfare capacity. A greater Indian concern would be their ability to buy influence over Sri Lankan politics and trade to suit China’s goals. India’s growing concerns on these developments are known to Sri Lanka. And India will be factoring these aspects in its relations with the island neighbour.

President Rajapaksa by his own admission has taken a pledge to protect the unity of the country and to safeguard and nurture Buddha Sasana. He is running the country with handpicked military officers heading oversight committees and occupying administrative posts. He has also pardoned military men convicted of criminal acts and dropped cases against armed forces personnel who were being prosecuted for such acts. The democratic polity sees this as a sign of increasing militarisation of the administration.

The COVID-19 pandemic infection has crossed the 400,000-mark by the end of August. The tourism industry, foreign remittances and export trade crippled by the pandemic are yet to recover. This has affected the livelihood of the people, sending prices of essential commodities shooting to the skies. Unmindful of these developments Rajapaksa has introduced some of the most drastic measures, ostensibly for shoring up the sinking economy and creating an environment-friendly society. These include banning the import of chemical fertilisers to popularise the use of organic fertilisers, ban on import of phones and automobiles, which have made life difficult for the citizens.

The US State Department’s recent report on the investment climate in Sri Lanka says: “Sri Lanka is a challenging place to do business with high transaction costs, aggravated by an unpredictable economic policy environment, inefficient delivery of government services, and opaque government procurement practices. Investors noted concerns over the potential for contract repudiation, cronyism, and de facto or de jure expropriation. Public sector corruption is a significant challenge for US firms operating in Sri Lanka and a constraint on foreign investment. While the country generally has adequate laws and regulations to combat corruption, enforcement is weak, inconsistent, and selective.

US stakeholders and potential investors expressed particular concern about corruption in large infrastructure projects and in government procurement. The government pledged to address these issues, but the Covid response remains its primary concern. Historically, the main political parties do not pursue corruption cases against each other after gaining or losing power.”

It is in this complex environment, the 57-year-old Asoka Milinda Moragoda's job as Sri Lanka High Commissioner in New Delhi is going to be a challenging one. The politically savvy Moragoda is a two-term parliamentarian, who had served as a cabinet minister for justice and law reforms under President Mahinda Rajapaksa.

Presumably, his cabinet rank appointment indicates he has the ears of Rajapaksas. He has wide interests and experience in business, government, diplomacy, media and not for profit organisations. Moragoda, an alumnus of the IMD Business School, Lausanne, Switzerland, has come to New Delhi armed with a plan of action.

The action plan titled “Integrated Country Strategy for Sri Lanka Diplomatic Missions in India 2021/2023” contains clear goals, objectives and strategies to be followed by the three Sri Lankan missions in India. Goals include elevating existing bilateral relationship to a strategic level, bolstering foreign investments and earnings from exports, expand strategic cooperation in defence and Indian Ocean security,

The seven objectives given are ambitious. Some are mundane like strengthening bilateral relationships through the exchange of high-level visits and parliamentary diplomacy. Some are novel like promoting greater interaction with the states of India which can resolve long-drawn issues of displaced persons and protecting Sri Lanka’s marine resources (euphemism for resolving a fishing dispute). A few goals are achievable: convene bilateral joint commissions, enhance cooperation in the fields of culture, education and science and technology. So is the goal of enhancing air, sea, electrical grid and digital connectivity.

Though the document is for internal use, he has discussed its content in various interviews with the press both in Sri Lanka and India, perhaps to gain public confidence. However, it can come only when both the countries act together to come up with some quick results. For instance, if Tamil Nadu chief minister can be persuaded to form a consortium of the state industrialists to invest in Northern Province to create employment opportunities for unemployed Tamil youth, it would make it easier for Tamil refugees in India to return home. But with Chinese footprint increasing in the island, will equal opportunities be given to Indian investors? Only, Sri Lanka can reassure them by taking the initiative.

Similarly, enough homework has been done to find ways to resolve the vexing issue of Tamil Nadu fishermen fishing in Sri Lankan waters. What is required is the political will to find an out of the box solution to arrive at a win-win solution.

Sri Lanka cannot wish away the issue of equitable rights for the Tamil minority as it has political connotations in Indian politics. Indo-Sri Lanka Accord 1987, despite its many shortcomings, still remains valid in meeting some of the Tamil aspirations. The 13th amendment to the constitution created provincial councils with limited autonomy. Though President Mahinda Rajapaksa had spoken of implementing a 13A plus, before the Eelam War ended, nothing came of it. It is clear President Gotabaya Rajapaksa does not favour the 13A. Many feel he may do away with it.

If the new Sri Lanka High Commissioner show results in some of these issues, he will be achieving much more than what he contemplates in his ICS document.

Colonel R Hariharan, former MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence with the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90

 

Reworking India-Sri Lanka relations under Rajapaksas -Deccan Herald, September 13, 2020

 

Talk to TBC: Col R Hariharan's Interview on Sri Lanka -Pt I

 

Sri Lanka election gig

Col R Hariharan |30-6-2020| Sri Lanka Perspectives June 2020 |                        South Asia Security Trends, July 2020 | www.security-risks.com

Election contretemps

The much debated and delayed Sri Lanka parliamentary election is now scheduled to be held on August 5.  After missing two dates set earlier for the election, after the disposal of eight fundamental rights cases, the Election Commission (EC) announcement came with a lot of conditions on conduct of campaigning as well as the elections, thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Each general election has its own flavor; but never before Sri Lanka had to conduct an election when the administration was fighting a global pandemic threatening the country. This makes the present election extraordinary because the Covid-19 pandemic has dislocated normal life and queered the pitch of usual election narratives of political parties.

However, the gods seem to be favouring President Gotabaya Rajapaksa as the Covid pandemic is showing signs of being tamed. The virus strike rate started falling by end of May and as on June 30, it stands at 2042 cases with only 10 deaths, according to WHO statistics. This is a record any nation can be proud of; and it comes in handy to boost the election prospects of the President’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). Yet another good news for the public was the lifting of the curfew imposed to contain the pandemic from March 20 onwards; the day-long curfew had continued for more than a month, before the timings were modified to night times in most of the areas. 

The election will test the ability of the Election Commission (EC) and the administration to conduct it as per the health guidelines to control the spread of the virus.

A total of 7,452 candidates are in the fray for a seat in the 225-member parliament. Members to the parliament are elected by proportional representation for five-year term. Out of the 225 members, 196 will be elected from 22 multi-member electoral districts, while the remaining 29 MPs will be elected from National Lists of their political parties and independent groups based on the proportion of their share in the national vote.

There are over 16.263 million voters eligible to participate in the election as against 15.04 million eligible voters in the 2015 parliamentary election. In the 2015 election 77.6 percent voters participated. However, strict public health restrictions in place both during the campaign period and the conduct of elections could adversely affect the voter percentage.

As in other South Asian countries, election campaigns are colourful in Sri Lanka also with lots of public participation. However, the Covid pandemic seems to have dampened the mood so far. Health guidelines have restricted major election rallies to one for a district.  Participation in public limits meetings to 100 persons. Social distancing norms are applicable to seating at meetings for both the audience and speakers. Before the meeting is organized health official has to be given three day notice. Moreover, participants even in small gatherings are required to provide their names, addresses and phone numbers. This is likely to discourage active public participation in campaign meetings. So political parties will have to innovatively use social media for campaigning. The UNP has already launched its social media campaign. Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa has already flagged off the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) political campaign. According to the party, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa would be joining the campaign from July 3.

No dearth of rhetoric

In spite of all the limitations imposed by health guidelines on the election campaign, there seems to be no dearth of electoral rhetoric, many of them are sensational, while a few them are made only for shock effect. 

A typical example is the political maelstorm triggered by former minister and ex- LTTE Eastern Commander “Col” Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan alias Karuna Amman’s flippant statement at a political rally in Ampara on June 19. He boasted that he had massacred 2000-3000 Sri Lanka soldiers in one night in Elephant Pass responding in response to an opposition leader’s remark that Karuna was more dangerous than Corona virus. Two CID teams were sent to Ampara and Batticaloa to gather more information about Karuna’s “claim” as though they had suddenly discovered his LTTE antecedent, his role in LTTE operations and in establishing in Eastern Province on a firm footing. The CID recorded his statement for seven and a half hours. In the slanging match that followed, Karuna’s statement in an interview alleging that opposition leader Sajith Premadasa’s father President Ranasinga Premadasa had given the LTTE 5000 rifles and one crore rounds of ammunition, targeting the UNP, was typical election rhetoric.

UN Human Rights Council added its penny’s worth to the Karuna controversy by tweeting "We note that #Karuna, former LTTE commander & Government minister, is being questioned for alleged past crimes. He should also be investigated for wholesale recruitment of child soldiers, a crime under int’l law. Accountability should apply to everyone in Sri Lanka."

New narrative in Tamil politics?

With the UNP a divided house, there are clear indications that the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), which is the largest group of Tamil parties, is changing its strategy to do business with President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who has come favoured the Sinhala Buddhist majority in his actions.  Nothing illustrates the President’s action better than the appointment of an all Sinhala “task force composed of members of Buddhist clergy and the military to report on Archaeological Heritage Management in Tamil and Muslim majority Eastern Province.

TNA spokesman MA Sumanthiran said last week in Batticaloa that they will support the government if it takes up constitutional reform. His logic is “The President is considered a war hero and if he supports a new Constitution, the South will not oppose him. Though Sumanthiran, articulate in Sinhala, was targeted by hardliners as a traitor after he distanced himself with Prabhakaran’s terrorist methods, the Global Tamil Forum (GTF) came out in his support. TNA supremo R Sampanthan’s congratulatory message to Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa on his completion of 50 years in active politics, also struck a conciliatory note. Describing Mahinda as a Man of the People, the octogenarian Tamil leader urged him to spearhead the move for a new constitution. "Sri Lanka as a Country faces serious unresolved problems. The country direly needs a new Constitution, the supreme Law of the country….A strong Leader with the support of the people is required to fulfil this urgent and compulsory need. Hon. Mahinda Rajapaksa is undoubtedly in that position. Hon. Mahinda Rajapaksa should rise to greater heights by undertaking and accomplishing that task. This should raise him to the level of a statesman and give him not merely national but international recognition and stature. He can be assured of our fullest support in this matter.”

The rival Tamil Makkal Tesiya Kuttani (TMTK) led by former Chief Minister CV Wigneswaran seems to have taken cue from the TNA and written a letter to the President seeking the release of 91 Tamil political prisoners. The former CM is said to have hinted of his readiness to talk to the President, after the elections on “national question”, according to well known Sri Lanka analyst Sathiyamoorthy.

But a new constitution by itself is no panacea for Tamils, as Federalism is a “no go” area for President Rajapaksa. But there are a host of other doables like the repeal of the Prevention of Terrorism Act, release of Tamil political prisoners and bringing to a closure of the vexing issue of forcibly disappeared persons if the Tamil parties manage to improve their working relations with the President and the PM. This is more easily said than done, as lack of unity is a unique feature of Tamil politics in Sri Lanka.  

Col R Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of Intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and South Asia Analysis Group Email: haridirect@gmail.com Blog:: https://col.hariharan.info

India-Sri Lanka relations under Gotabaya’s watch

 Colonel R Hariharan

World Focus | Issue 482 | page 5-8 | February 2020| | www.worldfocus.in

Background of Gotabaya’s victory

Sri Lanka has begun a new political chapter in 2020 with the election of Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who served as defence secretary for nearly a decade under his brother, President Mahinda Rajapaksa from 2005 to 2015. His electoral victory was not unexpected as most of the Sri Lankans hail him and his brother as national heroes for eliminating three-decade long Tamil separatist insurgency by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The Rajapaksas and their close supporters consider Gotabaya the modern day action hero and affectionately call him the ‘Terminator’.

The newly elected President, speaking to a news agency immediately after the election said it was the Sinhala majority vote “allowed me to win the presidency....I knew that I could win with only the votes of the Sinhala majority. But I asked Tamils and Muslims to be part of my success. Their response was not what I expected. However, I urge them to join me to build one Sri Lanka.” 

Gotabaya won with a majority of 52.25 % votes polled, mostly from Sinhala voters; it was 10.25 % more than his nearest rival -the United National Party (UNP) nominee Sajith Premadasa, who was supported largely by Tamil and Muslim minority. The Terminator’s victory is in sharp contrast to  the 2015 presidential election when Sinhala votes were divided between President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was seeking a third term, and Maithripala Sirisena, who defeated Rajapaksa with the support of the UNP opposition and huge support from minorities. 

 The Sinhala population, which had voted against Mahinda Rajapaksa in 2015 probably, changed its mind after the Easter Sunday attacks carried out by home-grown National Thowheed Jamath (NTJ) terrorists April 2019. The NTJ influenced by the Islamic State (IS) terrorist agenda targeted three churches and three luxury hotels on Easter Sunday, April 21, 2019 killing 259 people and injuring over 400 others. People lost total faith in the government when inquiry revealed the President Sirisena government had failed to prevent the attacks though it had received information from India two weeks in advance about terrorist plans to carry out the attacks.

The well planned, brazen attack terrified the people, who still remember the horrors of fighting Tamil separatist insurgency brought to an end ten years ago. Inquiry also exposed huge gaps in national security coordination and failure to carryout follow-up action when the state intelligence had reported the NTJ was spreading its extremist ideology for three years.

The fear of terrorism rising again became a rallying call for conservative Sinhala Buddhists, who consider Sri Lanka as the last bastion of Theravada Buddhism, to support Gotabaya in the presidential election. The Rajapaksas had used Sinhala Buddhist nationalism to muster political support. During their rule they had handled Buddhist fringe elements spouting anti-Muslim hate rhetoric and attacks with kid gloves lest it offends Buddhist clergy. So Gotabaya was able to swing Sinhala nationalist votes in his favour.  

The strong affirmation of Sinhala Buddhist support to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the consolidation of Sinhala majority backing he received are politically significant. It encourages President Gotabaya to chart his own course of action, rather than be subjected to pulls and pressures of opposition parties playing minority politics. On the international front, it gives him freedom to handle big power pressures and influences, with greater confidence than past presidents.

Soon after assuming office, President Gotabaya went on to implement many ‘doable’ he had promised to deliver during the run up to the election and in his manifesto. These included ordering an inquiry into the Easter Sunday attacks and follow up action taken to fix responsibility.

He had taken welcome measures like steep tax cuts in income tax, removal of all portraits of all politicians including the President and ministers from ministerial offices, cutting down the number of defence personnel assigned on presidential and ministerial security duties and reduction in the number of security vehicles accompanying VIP convoys. These showed the newly elected president’s style was managerial and methodical rather than political.

However, President Gotabaya’s the reputation as an authoritarian figure with disdain for democratic norms and rule of law based on his performance as the defence secretary haunts him. He has repeatedly said that he does not recognize the UN Human Rights Council resolution co-sponsored by Sri Lanka for promoting reconciliation, accountability and human rights for alleged excesses committed during the Eelam War.

Civil society and media fear the freedom of expression they enjoyed during President Sirisena’s rule is in danger of being curtailed under his watch.

This fear was further exacerbated when he announced he would give “due powers” to intelligence officers and provide legal cover to them. During the campaign period, he had also stated that he would release all military personnel under detention if he comes to power has shocked many.  There were 48 armed forces personnel prosecuted in five serious cases of abduction, disappearance, assault and murder. Names of President Gotabaya, members of Rajapaka family and a few other senior officers’ had come up during the course of CID investigations into these cases. These included cases of forced disappearances and murder of well-known journalist Lasantha Wickremetunge, editor of the Sunday Leader and cartoonist Eknaligoda.

Some of the actions of the government after he assumed office were clearly aimed at undoing not only the investigations and prosecutions of criminal cases involving military intelligence and navy personnel mentioned earlier. But there were also actions that showed a vindictive streak. For example a Special Presidential Commission (SPC) has been appointed to probe those responsible for falsely implicating people in murders or related investigation.

This would mean State investigative agencies like the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) and the Financial Crimes Investigation Division (FCID) had been investigating a number of cases involving the Rajapaksas would be investigated.  Even before SPC probe started, Chief Inspector Nishantha de Silva, head of organized crimes division of CID fled the country with his family to Switzerland to seek asylum there.

Inspector de Silva was handling high profile cases involving members of Rajapaksa family. They also included important cases like the killing of Lasantha Wickrematunga. After the police officer fled, a Sri Lankan woman staffer of the Swiss embassy alleged that she was abducted, questioned  and tortured by unknown persons. In the police investigations that followed the woman was arrested for making false allegations.

International relations

President Gotabaya is facing three gritty issues which have defied resolution of successive governments ever since the conclusion of the Eelam War in May 2009. The three issues are: impact of international security dynamics in the Indian Ocean Region, international accountability for alleged Eelam war crimes and resolving the Tamil national question. All the three issues have gained relevance during the last decade in shaping India-Sri Lanka relations as well as Sri Lanka’s relations with the international community.

President Gotabaya’s predecessors have managed the IOR strategic security issue by balancing Sri Lanka’s relations with IOR strategic security’s three principal stakeholders – India, the US and China. However, both Mahinda Rajapaksa and Maithripala Sirisena during their presidency never seriously tried to come to terms with the Tamil national question and Sri Lanka’s accountability for Eelam war crimes.

President Gotabaya will need the understanding of international community particularly India, China the US and in trying to manage these issues. While there is no doubt that they would readily help Sri Lanka in revamping national security structure to prevent Jihadi terror attacks and IOR strategic security, the President may be required to walk the extra mile to find support on the issues of devolution of powers to Tamils and the accountability for war crimes during the Eelam war.

IOR on India-Sri Lanka relations

After the elimination of LTTE in 2009, India-Sri Lanka relations have been progressing smoothly.  However, the dynamic changes in the strategic environment in South Asia and the IOR with the growing Chinese presence in South Asia, have forced both India and Sri Lanka to periodically examine problem areas to avoid any damage to their extremely cordial relations. This is more so ever since, Sri Lanka became an important strategic partner of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) –China’s strategic economic infrastructure project promoted since 2013. The Hambantota port, which was financed, developed and now run by the Chinese, has emerged as a vital Chinese strategic asset of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR), which forms part of the BRI.

Conscious of this Prime Minister Narendra Modi had been promoting ‘Neighbourhood First’ as the central theme of his foreign policy initiatives ever since he came to power in 2014.  As IOR forms part of the neighborhood, the Indian Prime Minister Modi has promoted SAGAR (Security and Growth for All) maritime initiative for developing the blue economy of the IOR countries. It seeks to create three things:  a climate of trust and transparency, respect for international maritime rules and increase in maritime cooperation with Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Bangladesh.

After winning a majority in the May 2019 general elections, Prime Minister visited the Maldives and Sri Lanka within the first ten days of assuming office for the second term. This indicates that India’s foreign policy priority to build strong relations with its IOR neighbours, particularly with Sri Lanka and Maldives.

After the Eelam war ended in 2009, China has focused on promoting its relations with Sri Lanka as it fits in well in its Indian Ocean strategy. In tandem with the increasing presence of Chinese warships in Indian Ocean, China has created infrastructural assets in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Pakistan. Sri Lanka now owes China US$ 8 billion for these projects including the Matala airport and Hambantota port. After the US$ 1.6 billion Hambantota port proved an unviable proposition Sri Lanka signed an agreement with the state-owned China  Merchants Ports Holdings Company (CMPort) to barter 85 percent share of Hambantota port for 99 years which agreed to pay US$ 1.12 billion for. India and the US and its allies have has watching with concern China gaining control of Hambantota port as it legitimizes China’s strategic presence within India’s sphere of influence in the Indian Ocean.

Chinese contractors have also built the Colombo Port City project was however, the project costing US$ 1.5 billion is being built on 112 hectares of reclaimed land in Colombo’s scenic Galle Face promenade has now been christened as Colombo International Financial Centre, a self-contained smart city project. However, Indian participation and investment is essential to make them profitable. This is likely to condition the approaches of both Sri Lanka and China to India-Sri Lanka relations. 

China has also gained commercial edge in South Asia with the progress in MSR infrastructure. The China- Sri Lanka free trade agreement (FTA) come through, Sri Lanka’s importance will increase for China as it has a flourishing FTA with India.

It is in this complex environment, India and Sri Lanka relations  will be subject to China’s strategic power play in Sri Lanka apart from India help Sri Lanka in capacity building to manage the Jihadi terrorist threat.

President Gotabaya showed his keenness to improve his relations with India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in particular, as he had earned the reputation of Sinophile while serving as defence secretary. So he readily accepted  Prime Minister Modi’s invitation to visit New Delhi extended soon after the election result was announced. The Indian prime minister had kept his links with the Rajpaksas open even after the 2015 defeat in the presidential poll. President Gotabaya visited New Delhi on November 29-30, 2019 and  sought India’s support and help to improve national security, combat Islamist terrorism and help economic recovery.

India readily responded with a line of credit of $400 million to meet Sri Lanka’s development needs and $50 to augment its security. It is significant that though PM Modi in a press statement on November 29, expressed the hope that the 13^th Amendment to the Sri Lankan constitution based on the Indo-Sri Lanka accord would be adhered to. However, President Gotabaya later said the 13^th Amendment could not be implemented “against the wishes and feelings of the majority community.”

During his India visit President Gotabaya termed the agreement with China on Hambantota Port as a “mistake” and it should be renegotiated. This must have caused a lot of concern to China. However, after he returned home, he told a press briefing that there was no need to renegotiate the Hambantota agreement but the security aspects would need to be looked into.  Though the Chinese reacted quickly with a statement remind the agreement cannot be renegotiated, the issue probably figured when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Colombo on January 14.

According to President Gotabaya’s office statement the Chinese minister had pledged not to allow “any outside infuences” to interfere with Sri Lanka’s internal matters”, apparently a not so subtle hint at the US which had tried to influence the 2015 election. He promised as a strategic partner “China will standby Sri Lanka’s interests. China stands for the country’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence.” The BRI projects issue and China’s support for Sri Lanka’s stand at the UNHRC on accountability for war crime issue also figured in their discussion.