Col R Hariharan | Sri Lanka Strategic Perspectives, May 2026| www.security-risk.com
Tamil Nadu politics is very closely followed in Sri Lanka. Of course, this is to be expected given the close cultural and historic links among the people living only 40 km across the Palk Straits. More importantly, among the people of Tamil Nadu, there is widespread support for Sri Lanka Tamils' quest for equity, particularly during the Eelam wars.
In the Tamil Nadu elections for the state assembly held in May 2026, belying most of the poll forecasters, the actor-turned politician Vijay (Joseph Vijay in real world) led the two-year old Thamizhaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) to win the largest number of seats (108) – just 5 short of absolute majority in the 224-member Tami Nadu assembly. Ultimately, Vijay was sworn in as Chief Minister after he satisfied the governor that he had majority support.
CM Vijay is likely to enjoy a better equation with the Centre and PM Narendra Modi than MK Stalin whose DMK was a leading member of the INDIA opposition group.
The election of TVK as the single largest party and the political machinations that followed before TVK could form the government have shown the following home truths on Tamil Nadu politics:
· Charisma still counts over Ideology in Tamil Nadu. TVK’s rise shows that voters can rally behind a personality-driven movement even without a coherent ideological framework. Traditional Dravidian parties- DMK, AIADMK, MDMK etc – need to recognize the limitations of their Dravidian doctrinal. Charismatic Vijay has shown a mix of social justice added to celebrity appeal can mobilize mass support faster than Dravidian doctrine.
· Youth power to the fore: The TVK leader has appealed to young voters and women voters by addressing specific issues of crimes against women, spread of drugs due to corrupt policing and spread of alcoholism due to state-controlled TASMAC vends. In an era Gen-A is busy with online with reels and Instagram, young leaders of TVK were probably more adept in using the online media to reach first time voters. The youthful flavour of TVK’s campaign seems to have worked in favour of TVK rather than the Dravidian duopoly dominated by older leadership.
· Anti-Incumbency still dominates: There is no doubt that DMK faced strong anti-incumbency backlash, with voters seeking alternatives outside the Dravidian duopoly. The sidelining of the two major Dravidian parties, both with a long record in government, showed voters prefer good governance more than ideology.
· Dravidian consensus: TVK’s victory has shown the fragmentation of Dravidian consensus that dominated TN politics. Political parties will have to refurbish their Dravidian-centric dialogue relevant to the 21st century on social justice, reservations and welfare debates as TVK has done.
Issues that affect India-Sri Lanka relations
The TVK’s election also reflects the generational change across the Palk Strait where young Tamil voters, especially urban and semi-urban, are less emotionally tied to the Sri Lankan Tamil struggle than earlier generations. Probably, it also reflects the geo-political fatigue over the long fought civil war in Sri Lanka, wiping out two generations of Tamils. In short, the Sri Lankan Tamil Cause in Tamil Nadu has transited from an election mobilizing issue to a symbolic heritage issue. President AK Dissanayaka should use this opportunity to improve relations with Tamil Nadu which is clocking around 12 percent in India’s development agenda. As a first measure he will have to offer some visible concessions on the contentious Tamil issue (see below) before inviting CM Vijay to Colombo, as a reflection of his good will towards Tamils.
There are two hardy perennial Tamil issues that affect India-Sri Lanka relations: one relates to Tamil politics in Sri Lanka, while the other affects Tamil Nadu politics.
Full powers for Provincial Councils.
PM Modi has been repeatedly harping on Sri Lanka giving full powers to Provincial Councils created under 13th Amendment to the Sri Lanka Constitution in accordance with Indo-Sri Land Accord 1987. It is high time the ruling NPP took a decision on this which does not require constitutional amendment. This will improve the image of the NPP not only in Northern and Eastern provinces, but in Tamil Nadu as well.
Indo-Sri Lanka Maritime issues
There are three components to the maritime domain between India and Sri Lanka. These relate to traditional fishing rights along the Gulf of Mannar claimed by Tamil Nadu on the Sri Lankan side of the International Maritime Boundary (IMB) between the two countries. Sri Lanka’s ownership of Katchatheevu, an islet falling on the Sri Lanka side of the IMB. Use of bottom trawling by Tamil Nadu fishing trawlers despite the ban in Sri Lanka is yet another issue. This has resulted in wiping out of fauna and flora along Sri Lankan and Indian coasts. This has led to apprehension of Tamil Nadu fishermen in the Gulf of Mannar by the Sri Lankan Navy with their trawlers and nets, which continues.
In answer to a Rajya Sabha question the MEA of India last year said, “Indian fishermen are arrested from time to time by Sri Lankan authorities for allegedly crossing the IMB and fishing in Sri Lankan waters. The IMB was agreed upon between the Governments of India and Sri Lanka in 1974. The then-State Government of Tamil Nadu was consulted by the Union Government before its finalization. Another agreement in 1976, through a formal exchange of letters by the then-Union Government and its Sri Lankan counterpart, stipulated that the fishing vessels and fishermen of India shall not engage in fishing in the historic waters, the territorial sea and the exclusive zone of Sri Lanka.”
The Government has said “since 2014, endeavoured to address the livelihood interests of our fishing community and its humanitarian aspects. The Government has been consistently taking up these issues, including the early release and repatriation of Indian fishermen and fishing boats, as well as the fines imposed, with the Sri Lankan Government through bilateral mechanisms, diplomatic channels, and various official interactions.
According to the MEA, “Prime Minister in his recent meetings with the Sri Lankan President (05 April 2025) and Prime Minister (17 October 2025) conveyed that this issue may be considered purely on humanitarian and livelihood grounds and that the use of force should be avoided under all circumstances. Concerted efforts of the Government have so far resulted in the release and repatriation of 3642 Indian fishermen since May 2014.”
The TVK party holds a strong Tamil-nationalist stance on maritime and fishing specific issues related to Sri Lanka. TVK asserts that Katchatheevu is India's rightful land. Vijay has repeatedly demanded that the Central government permanently retrieve the islet from Sri Lanka to halt the ongoing crisis affecting Tamil Nadu fishermen. As a temporary measure to protect fishing communities, TVK has urged PM Narendra Modi to negotiate 99-year lease of the islet. Sri Lanka President might explore this issue as a goodwill gesture to partly defuse the issue. This could encourage further Tamil Nadu investment in Sri Lanka.
These measures are unlikely to provide a lasting solution as the fishermen issue is much more than Kachchatheevu. It has its roots in Indian fishermen bottom trawling in Sri Lankan waters that has resulted in unsustainable exploitation of fisheries, and the crossing of the maritime boundary. Unless these are addressed there is little hope of resolving the issues permanently.
Priorities of CM Vijay
Right now, CM Vijay’s priority is survival of the TVK government. The DMK will be happy to bring down the TVK government when the split votes in AIADMK who supported the TVK, is resolved to TVK's detriment. We can expect CM Vijay to politically strengthen the TVK government in the next six months. We can expect him to take up Sri Lanka related issues thereafter. The uncertainty in politics is common. As British Prime Ministeri Harold Wilson noted "a week is a long time in politics" given how rapidly power dynamics, public opinions and national fortunes can shift.
[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Website: https://.col.
