Trump & understanding the emerging strategic equation: Q & A - 2

 Col R Hariharan 

Recently, a scribe raised a few questions after POTUS Donald Trump kidnapped Venezualan President Maduro. They largely pertained to the emerging strategic equatio. My answers are in two parts. The first part is available at https://col.hariharan.net/2026/01/trump-and-understanding-emerging.html.  Here are my answers to the rest of the questions:

 1.    There are no races for colonies today but yet the big powers are carving out their spheres of influence? Is it just a raw display of the realist strategy of IR?

I beg to differ. Despite Trump and MAGA philosophy, multilateralism is here to stay because of a few reasons: WTO has increased the global trade both in width and depth superpower equation has changed. Global South is finding a place in the first four economic powers with the US in the first place with China as an immediate challenger. They are followed by Russia, India, Japan, Germany and UK/France in that order.   

Secondly, warfare has changed in scale both in width and depth. Now hybrid warfare involving inciting the population through propaganda, cyberwarfare, misinformation used to soften target country before waging war. Drones in thousands tie down anti-aircraft systems, while long and short range missiles take on military command and control systems so vital in present day informatized scenario. This has garbled the traditional strategic equation of East and West. Global south are no more bystanders as India and China have made progress in both economic and military power.  These have the alliances between super powers ending clear cut equations. Terrorism at the global level has become an instrument to carry on the indirect warfare against big powers. Collective action at the UN has been rendered into irrelevance with a maverick POTUS cocking the snook at the UN. The very fact BRICS, ASEAN, for that matter even SCO have continued to flourish is a testimony as to collective action is no more superpower monopoly.

To sum up, multilateralism is here to stay as warfare is no more limited to land, air and sea; there are space, cyber and information warfare adding confusion to the battlefield.

Robotics is making an entry into battlefield; command and control systems in battlefields are poised to change when artificial intelligence makes a big entry future.

Trump cannot wish away newer energy sources emerging like ‘green hydrogen.’ Whether US likes it or not, natural phenomenon like global warming and downward in swing in population replacement rate are here to stay. This may mean new alliances and equations between countries

2. There are no alliance systems today. Is the lack of a balance of power a good thing or bad? 

I have not understood as alliances NATO, QUAD, BRICS, SCO etc continue to exist. There is nothing good or bad about balance of power. Alliances are formed to achieve a common objective, often to boost their strength through collective action

The US was never a colonial power and entered the world wars towards the end when it was hit. This time, it is playing a proactive role in triggering a global conflict. Could it hurt its invincibility in some way? Could China also emerge as a similar power today, given its policies and aggression vis-a-vis Taiwan?

3, The US was never a colonial power and entered the world wars towards the end when it was hit. This time, it is playing a proactive role in triggering a global conflict. Could it hurt its invincibility in some way? Could China also emerge as a similar power today, given its policies and aggression vis-a-vis Taiwan?

The U.S. military participated both in World War I and II by deploying over 2 million troops and 16 million troops respectively. They fought alongside Allies in crucial battles in contributing significant naval power (destroyers against U-boats), and providing massive financial, industrial, and material aid (loans, arms, food). It is now the largest naval power (though China might outnumber it in warships). It will continue to support Europea war efforts against common enemy i.e. Russia and Iran.

But US may not overtly support Taiwan invasion by China as it has acknowledged "One China Policy" in 2017. It is a policy steeped in strategic ambiguity acknowledging Beijing's position that there's only one sovereign China and Taiwan is part of it. Covert support could be to supply vital arms to Taiwan, encourage Japan and South Korea to take a hostile stance in case PRC invades Taiwan.

4. Peace had zero chance in the 1914 world as powers clashed inevitably. Could it be the same again in these times?

I will not be so pessimistic of the future. Warfare has continually changed since machine guns were introduced in 1884. As nations make progress in MIRV -Multiple Independently-targetable Re-entry Vehicles – warfare enters in new frontiers in space with satellites becoming targets. This will compel nations to come together for evolving common code of conduct to enforce international protocols.

For instance, as global marine traffic increased in the last five decades 32 international protocols have been introduced. Similarly, as international air traffic increased separate protocols for dealing with communication and phraseology, navigation and surveillance, separation standards between aircraft, flight operations, regulatory systems and key documents have been introduced. Though UN has become talk shop, we can expect new conventions like the Geneva Conventions to be evolved as and when obstacles are encountered as new warfare systems take over. This does not mean warfare will become obsolete; they will become short duration, pin pointed to achieve key objectives, though side by side we will have a few wars like those of Gaza and Ukraine wars.

 

 

Trump and understanding the emerging strategic equation: Q & A - 1

Col R Hariharan 

Recently, a scribe raised a few questions after POTUS Donald Trump kidnapped Venezualan President Maduro. They largely pertained to the emerging strategic equatio. My answers to his questions are in two parts. Here is the first part:

Question 1: The current state of international politics is similar to what it was before World War 1. Each big power is claiming its own sphere of influence, The US in the Western Hemisphere, Russia in Eastern Europe, China potentially in Taiwan with several overlaps like in Greenland, Africa, Latin America. 

Before WW-I, it was the European powers' greed for colonies that led to the war when clashes became inevitable. A similar situation is emerging now again even though there are no colonies per se now like then, yet the pursuit of power/national interests is as brutal. Defence pacts then made world war even more inevitable as two states' battles pulled in more. Today there are strategic clubs like the SCO, BRICS, QUAD, NATO in varying sizes. A WW 3 in a multipolar world could be devastating in no time. Archduke Franz Ferdinand's assassination ignited WW 1. A similar trigger today and it's almost the end of the road. 

What do you think about the above observation? 

It was Karl Marx famously said "History repeats itself, first as a tragedy, second as a farce". He atributed it to GWF Hegel, though Hegel had said “the only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history.” I think George Santayana’s statement "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" is more apt to the current confused world situation, after POTUS Donald Trump churned it up with the kidnapping of Venezuela’s President Maduro and prosecuting him in the US, in utter disregard of international norms of conduct of nations. He has ensured American access to the country’s oil resources by promoting a proxy regime there.

To add to global agony, Trump has threatened to take over Greenland and even Canada. His sights right now are on regime change in Iran, dethroning the Ayatollah’s Islamic rule, where popular agitation is gathering momentum due to run away inflation. Trump is threatening to bomb if the Iranian governments use violence against them.

President Trump holds a deeply hostile attitude towards the World Trade Organization (WTO), viewing it as an obstacle to his "America First" trade agenda. He believes it treats the U.S. unfairly. He is poised to slap 500% tariff on India, if it does not stop importing Russian petroleum.

It will be a folly to interpret at Trump’s actions through foreign policy angle only. We should understand his core philosophy. It has three components:

MAGA (Make America Great Again) agenda, transactional realism and populism. MAGA agenda uses “America First” nationalism as its war cry, rejects globalism. It favours a unilateral approach to protect US interests. It adopts Economic Protectionism using tariffs to renegotiate trade deals to protect domestic manufacture. Isolationism is used as a tool to view multilateral alliances like NATO, as an unfair burden on the US. To protect American identity, it focuses on strict immigration controls, treating them purely as a law and order problem.

It is evident Trump uses Transactional Realism in his dealings as explained in his 1987 book ‘The Art of the Deal.’ It involves using business centric logic to governance, viewing political and diplomatic transactions as zero-sum competition. The strategy includes Negotiating from Strength, Flexible Pragmatism based on situations rather than fixed theories, and adopting Machiavellian Calculation focusing on results than traditional moral or accepted norms of behaviour.    

The third component ‘Right Wing Populism’ has its roots in “aggrieved entitlement” as evident from his social media supporters’ writings. Its anti-establishment champions frame their political action as a retribution justice to those affected.

Trump’s style as President uses his authority as though the president has overall control over federal bureaucracy. Legal scholars describe such users as following the Unitary Executive Theory.

His book describes his operational philosophy. It includes thinking big to gain a psychological advantage, using fighting back as a tool when treated unfairly and always using maximum options to avoid struggling with a single approach.  

A few days back, President Trump has ordered the US to withdraw from 66 international organizations, including 31 major UN agencies, in bid to do away with multilateral cooperation. Trump’s executive order directing US departments to end participation in and funding for 31 UN and 35 non-UN organizations "as soon as possible," according to a White House release. These organizations span climate change, conservation, counter-terrorism and human rights, among other fields. India-led International Solar Initiative is one of them. 

In handling Trump, adopting purely diplomatic means are likely to end in failure. Perhaps, familiarising one self with Roger Fishers’ book “Getting to Yes” on business negotiating styles will be wise before dealing with Trump.

 

Coming to terms with India’s role in Sri Lanka

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives October 2025 | South Asia Security Trends, November 2025 | https://www.security-risks.com  

The highlight of the month of October is Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya’s official visit to India from October 16 to 18.  This was 55 year-old former academic’s first visit to India after she became PM. She is no stranger to India, particularly New Delhi, having studied and graduated from the Hindu College with B.A. degree in Sociology. Mrs Amarasuriya went on to acquire a Master’s degree in Applied Anthropology from Australia and a doctorate in Anthropology from University of Edinburgh.  The visiting PM had just returned from a three-day visit China to attend the Global Leaders' Meeting on Women. During her China visit, she met with the Chinese President Xi Jinping, Chinese Premier Li Qiang and China’s top political advisor Wang Huning. Their talk was generally about joint venture and collaborations between the two countries particularly about the Colombo port city, the Hambantota port and the central expressway. She also lauded the commitment made by Xi to gender equality and women's empowerment globally during the opening ceremony of the Global Leaders' Meeting. Her visit to New Delhi immediately after the visit to China is significant.

Though Dr Amarasuriya was in Delhi to participate in NDTV’s World Summit, it was evident the visit was part of ruling NPP’s efforts to strengthen Sri Lanka’s bonds with India. At her meeting with PM Modi covered a wide spectrum of subjects. In PM Modi’s own words, “Our discussions covered a broad range of areas, including education, women’s empowerment, innovation, development cooperation and the welfare of our fishermen. As close neighbours, our cooperation holds immense importance for the prosperity of our two peoples as well as the shared region.” Dr Amarasuriya, on her part, said, “It was very good. We discussed how we can continue to maintain the good relations that we have established. Prime Minister Modi gave me quite a few ideas about the education reforms that are going on here. We discussed our respective policies.” She did not avoid the sensitive issue of fishermen either; she said, “That is an ongoing issue and something that needs to be discussed. We need to protect the livelihoods of our fishermen as well, but we understand that that’s a sensitive issue and we will continue to talk about it.”

Her visit to NITI Aayog, policy coordination think tank, in New Delhi is of special significance. The visit focused on fostering deeper collaboration between the two countries and sharing insights on India’s transformative initiatives in the sectors of infrastructure, education, tourism, skill development, and artificial. She showed special interest in understanding how NITI Aayog functions alongside central ministries and states—linking analysis, evidence-based policymaking, and feedback from citizens into effective governance. She also shared Sri Lanka’s own reform journey and the need for institutions that promote policy coherence, evidence-based decisions, and consistency beyond political cycles.

The discussions provided an overview of India’s ongoing initiatives such as PM Gati Shakti for multimodal infrastructure planning, the National Education Policy 2020 for holistic and inclusive learning, collaborative opportunities in tourism and cultural exchange, and frontier technologies including artificial intelligence and digital governance. Presentations made on the occasion particularly the Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement (ETCA), PM Gati Shakti, showcasing integrated infrastructure planning and the potential application of India’s multimodal logistics model to Kandy City, Education Reforms under NEP 2020 show future areas of Indo-Sri Lanka projects. While technology-driven learning systems will benefit Sri Lanka’s tourism, Sri Lanka can benefit from collaboration in digital innovation and governance, to enable NPP to deliver systemic improvements. As NITI Aayog said “The visit underscored the shared vision of India and Sri Lanka to deepen strategic partnerships, promote sustainable development, and leverage innovation and skills to address regional challenges and opportunities. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to advancing a knowledge-based, technology-driven, and people-centric partnership under India’s “Neighbourhood First” and ”MAHASAGAR” frameworks.

The extra effort put in by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led NPP government of President AK Dissanayaka (AKD) and PM Amarasuriya to strengthen ties with India is remarkable for its ideological transformation. The core tenets of the JVP's early ideology were outlined in the "Five Lectures" delivered by its founder, Rohana Wijeweera, to its cadres. These lectures covered: an analysis of the local economy and high unemployment rates among youth, critiques of the "old left" parties' failure to achieve a true revolution and anti-imperialist stance (which explicitly included criticism of Indian "expansionism") and the necessity of a sudden, violent armed insurrection to seize power. 

The JVP has historically viewed India as an expansionist power and a threat to Sri Lanka's sovereignty. The party consistently criticized India's involvement in Sri Lanka's internal affairs, fearing a potential loss of independence. The arrival of the Indian Peace-Keeping Force (IPKF) and the signing of the Indo-Sri Lanka Accord in 1987, which aimed to address the Tamil ethnic conflict through devolution of power, was a primary catalyst for the JVP's second and more violent insurrection between 1987 and 1989. Rohana Wijeweera gave specific lectures against "Indian irredentism" as part of the party's core indoctrination. The JVP leadership even framed Tamil demands for self-determination as being aligned with U.S. imperialist interests.

The JVP’s transformation from its India-hating revolutionary Marxist-Leninist philosophy to accept a democratic socialist framework came after the failure of its two violent insurrections (in 1971 and 1987-89). Of course, the ideological transformation was aided by the collapse of the Soviet Union.  Its evolution from insurrection to democratic engagement involved abandoning armed struggle. However, the reframed ideology has retained its leftist orientation by reinterpreting Marxist principles to suit pluralist democracy. It features emphasis on anti-imperialism, social justice and economic equity while abandoning authoritarian socialism.  The JVP’s present Avatar has embraced electoral politics, and rebranded its ideology around anti-corruption, civic empowerment, and inclusive governance. The NPP coalition’s success in the last presidential and parliamentary elections show people have welcomed its focus on grassroot democracy, transparency and participatory governance aligned to democratic norms. So far, JVP MPs parliamentary behaviour has been more constructive.

The Frontline Socialist Party (FSP) which shares ideological roots with JVP maintaining a separate identity, is a not a formal member of the NPP coalition. It considers itself as the inheritors of JVP’s revolution, retaining its anti-Indian stance. It often criticises the NPP government for its pragmatic alliance sacrificing ideology. The FSP has questioned NPP’s recent deals with political actors to help NPP gain control of local councils, branding them as betrayal of anti-establishment principles. An activist of the Party Wasantha Mudalige has recently criticised the NPP government for allowing India to expand investments in the strategic Trincomalee District “at the expense of people” (whatever that means). Recently, when the President visited SLAF Academy in Trincomalee, the FSP activist said the government had “brazenly facilitated high-profile Indian projects, such as the Trincomalee oil tank farm project, launched decades ago. He alleged that the NPP was pursuing an agenda inimical to Sri Lanka, contrary to what the JVP/NPP had been saying over the years. Another FSP spokesman said the government seemed to have adopted a very similar strategy in the Mannar District, where the people have launched protests on controversial wind power projects. None of those NPP lawmakers, from the Northern and Eastern Provinces, spoke on behalf of the people, for obvious reasons as the government was bent on appeasing India, regardless of consequences. The FSP has recently called a press conference in Colombo where the party leader Duminda Nagamuwa questioned India’s motive in implementing housing projects in many parts of the country. He pointed out that there were so many people without proper housing in India, while New Delhi was engaged in mega housing projects here. He was referring to India’s announcement that it will support the construction of 14,000 houses for the Indian-Origin Tamil community in Sri Lanka under Phase IV of the Indian Housing Project. Officially the project was launched at a ceremony on October 12, 2025, attended by Sri Lankan President and Indian High Commissioner to Sri Lanka.  

Unlike the Rajapaksas, AKD seems to have abandoned personality-based leadership style and adopted an inclusive leadership for JVP’s NPP coalition with affiliate wings – NPP Youth and Progressive Women’s Collective. Its core strength o appears to be pragmatic governance, mass appeal and reformist agenda. In pragmatic governance and reformist agenda, India’s learnings and assistance have become indispensable to Sri Lanka; the cultural and historical connections give India a feet up in tackling Chinese competition in Sri Lanka.  Apparently, its form has appealed to the people as NPP accounts for 159 out of 225 parliament members and 266 out of 341 local body members.

However, while managing the coalition, AKD must manage JVP’s lingering residual radicalism visible in its rhetoric, centralized party control and difficulties in managing ideological purity with coalition politics. Otherwise, NPP runs the risk of being marginalised in the cut throat politics of Sri Lanka. As far as relations with India are concerned, AKD’s problem is likely to be in handling the sizeable population of India-baiters present in almost all parties. The Indo-Sri Lanka Accord and 13^th Amendment and Indian poachers fishing in Sri Lankan waters are their rallying point to trigger anti-Indian propaganda.

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Website: https://.col.hariharan@net  Email: haridirect@gmail.com,]

Three Questions on Trump's MAGA effect on India

Col R Hariharan

[Three questions raised by a media scribe are answered here]

Is the US working against Indian interests?

This question cannot be answered in the binary of yes or no. It has to be answered in the backdrop of the robust defence partnership that has grown during the last two decades between India and the US. Both the countries have signed several key agreements that enhance military cooperation, interoperability and strategic alignment between them. These include

·      LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) allowing both countries to use each other's military facilities for replenishment, enhancing operational reach and logistics support. 

·      COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) signed in 2018, facilitates secure communications between U.S. and Indian military systems, enabling interoperability during joint operations. 

·      BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement) signed in 2020, allows sharing of geospatial intelligence and satellite data for improved targeting and navigation. 

·      ISA (Industrial Security Agreement) signed in 2019, enables the transfer of classified technology and information to Indian private defence firms, boosting co-development and co-production.

·      Last year, India signed SOSA (Security of Supply Arrangement), which ensures priority access to defence goods and services during emergencies, strengthening supply chain resilience. The two countries have signed an MoU on Liaison Officers that enable deployment of Indian officers to U.S. commands (starting with U.S. Special Operations Command), improving coordination and information sharing. They have also signed a 10-Year Defence Framework for long-term roadmap for defence cooperation, focusing on joint production, technology transfer, and strategic alignment. 

·      The Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance (ASIA) is a collaborative initiative for Underwater Domain Awareness (UDA), reflecting growing interest in maritime security. Besides these, India and US cooperation in space have moved beyond astronaut training and commercial transactions. 

·      A joint Earth-observing satellite using dual frequency synthetic aperture radar is scheduled for launch from India's Satish Dhawan Space Center under the NASA-ISRO NISAR agreement.

·      India is also a member of the Quad - quadrilateral framework - consisting of Australia, India, Japan and the US which came into existence in the wake of Covid pandemic, to enhance supply chain cooperation following Chinese domination of chip and rare earths industries.

These agreements have enabled India to acquire from the US MH-60R Seahawks, Apache helicopters and P-81 maritime patrol aircraft, enhancing India's airlift, logistics and surveillance capacities. India's maritime surveillance and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific has now become reality. GE has become the supplier for engines for LCA Tejas light combat aircraft. Co-production deals are underway for Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stryker combat vehicles. In fact, India is the first non-treaty partner to whom the US has offered the Sea Guardian UAS under the Missile Technology Control.  

This is perhaps the reason why PM Narendra Modi reacts after a lot of deliberation to POTUS Donald Trump's provocative comments and moves affecting good relations with India. These include slapping 50+50 % tariff for energy trade with Russia and increasing visa fee to $100,000 and cutting down on visas for foreign students.

PM Modi probably understands Trump's guiding lights better than others. Trump is guided by "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) - a nationalist framework that emphasizes American sovereignty, economic self-interest, and a rejection of globalist "entanglements". His foreign policy, which is marked by transactionalism, unilateralism and a focus on domestic revival over international commitments. As a result, promoting domestic manufacturing and imposing tariffs to protect American industries has been adopted as his state policy.

He has reduced the US involvement in multilateral organisations like the UN, WHO and even NATO. He advocates military deterrence while avoiding foreign wars. Trump also emphasises traditional values and national pride as fundamental to his policy pronouncements. As a result, the Trump-Vance Doctrine seeks to avoid open ended military commitments forcing its foreign allies to spend more on defence.  He treats foreign relations as deals rather than diplomatic initiatives. As a result short term gains and personal leverage have replaced his moves even with long-term allies like Japan and NATO members. 

Trump has adopted tariff driven trade policy, imposing sweeping tariffs on imports to rebalance trade deficits and revive American industry. This has not only affected US relations with allies but has skewed global supply chains.  As a commentator says in the Centre for International Governance Innovation, Trump's foreign policy increasingly centers around his own image, shifting from MAGA to MTGA (Make Trump Great Again) to assert his dominant personality replacing ideology driven US foreign policy doctrines like Bush's neoconservatism or Obama's multilateralism. His repeated claims of mediating in the recent Op Sindoor conflict between India and Pakistan despite India's stout denial, bringing peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan and Cambodia and Thailand also vouch for his quest for the Nobel Peace Prize. 

"Is Washington seeking to contain India strategically? What do you make of the developments in the region and beyond?" 

These questions have to be examined in Trump's ideological backdrop discussed earlier. In my view, there are three prongs to Trump's US policy approach to India: 

a. Use of US trade talks with India as a bargaining chip to compel India to whittle down its close relations with Russia and eliminate threat posed to American unilateralism by multilateral alliances like BICS. 

b. Restrict India's ambitions to South and Central Asia by using Deep State to trigger anti-India sentiments in its neighbourhood. I see a pattern in the popular uprisings noticed particularly in Bangladesh and Nepal, though in Sri Lanka it was different.  Reviving US-Pakistan strategic relations is also part of this strategy apart from US ambitions to gain control over Afghanistan and Iran (as also the abolishing US' waiver given to India over Chabahar port from US sanctions slapped on Iran).

How should India perceive growing U.S.-Pakistan bonhomie and perceived U.S. attempts to increase foothold in South Asia, including in Afghanistan? Is that something that New Delhi should be concerned about?

India should be wary of developments in US-Pakistan bonhomie. Perhaps, time for India to read the red lines on Pakistan in every foreign policy palaver with the US. I see the US initiative in Pakistan as more than keeping India engaged. It will help America tackle Iran (as the possibility of Iran-Russia-China triumvirate emerging stronger cannot be ruled out). As a part of it, the US probably hopes to regain control of Bagram airbase as a trade off for helping Taliban-ruled Afghanistan to regain international recognition. It will also cut down India's independent quest to repair relations with the Afghan Taliban. I see the recent strategic cooperation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan as part of the US initiative to help the US' anti-Iran strategy.   

India should adopt a policy not subject to the vagaries of Trump's US policy. India should not hyphenate its approach to the US to the latter's Pakistan policy. One can expect the scaling down of US rhetoric on India as concessions are given to US trade in the talks. Already, $100,000-visa is a little watered down by the US. It has announced that it is not for renewals. We can expect conditions for student visas also to be watered down as universities are clamouring. It is good to remember under POTUS Trump, foreign policy is irrevocably linked to making "deals". 

 

Strategic Dynamics of India-Sri Lanka relations

 

Col R Hariharan (Retd)

World Focus, September 2024 issue | https://www.worldfocus.in/current_issue?key=492&val=India-and-Neighbourhood

Changes in strategic backdrop

There is a seamless link between trade and war. In the words of American scholar of international economy Robert Gilpin, “trade is the oldest and most important economic nexus among nations. Indeed, trade along with war has been central to the evolution of international relations.”

Peninsular India is separated from Sri Lanka by 40 km of Palk Strait. Sri Lanka’s location astride the international sea lanes of the Indian Ocean gives it a pivotal role of strategic importanceu not only for India, but for global security and trade as well.

Indian Navy’s domination of the IOR is being challenged by the increasing presence of PLA Navy’s warships. China has also increased its strategic reach in IOR by creating maritime assets and facilities in Indian Ocean rim countries. In the East, Kyakpyu port in Myanmar and Chittagong port developed by China in Bangladesh provide direct access from the mainland to the Bay of Bengal. China has a 99-year lease on Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port that dominates the sea lanes of the Indian Ocean. A Chinese company controls two carrier terminals in Colombo port. China also exercises control over the reclaimed land in Colombo port economic zone. In the West, China has shown interest in developing infrastructure in Ilhavanddhippolhu atoll in Maldives, strategically located on the sea lanes of the Indian Ocean. China has gained a foothold near the Strait of Hormuz after developing a deep sea port in Gwadar in Pakistan as a part of the CPEC. Since 2017, China has established its first overseas military base in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa.  

Alarmed at the increasing threat posed by China to international maritime traffic in the Indo-Pacific, four nations – India, the US, Japan and Australia - have formed the ‘Quad’, a quadrilateral non-military framework. It is ushering in close cooperation between the members in manufacturing, logistics and political issues. The AUKUS – Australia-US – military alliance is poised to introduce the nuclear triad in the Indo-Pacific theatre. A trilateral alliance of the US-Japan-South Korea has been formed to tackle any threat from China and its protégé North Korea, flaunting their military strength in their vicinity.

China’s visible presence has made India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy more relevant not only to India’s national security, but also its trade and commerce. Conscious of this, PM Modi revamped maritime cooperation doctrine with the launch of the SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) initiative March 12, 2015, to build better relations with island nations of IOR - Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius, and Seychelles.  

Impact of Covid 19 pandemic

The Covid-19 pandemic between 2020 to 2022 caused a huge set back to the economies of South Asian countries. Sri Lanka was one of the most affected by the Covid pandemic. The economy, largely dependent upon remittances from the Diaspora and tourism industry, suffered heavily. The Ukraine war and the slapping of stringent sanctions against Russia affected it further as tourists from the two countries formed around 15 percent of international tourist travellers. By March 2022, the country saw 10-hour power shutdowns almost every day, endless ques waited for hours for petrol at pumps. Surgical operations were halted due to lack of medical supplies. Newsprint shortage forced daily newspapers to go online mode; public exams in schools were cancelled for want of paper. Adding to the woes, hydropower generation dipped as water sources dried up and annual agriculture production fell by 40 percent due to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s ill-timed ban on import of chemical fertilizers and pesticides.

The country went bankrupt in April 2022. Sri Lankan rupee was devalued by 36 percent, pushing up the prices of daily necessities. In a bid to save foreign exchange, authorities banned imports including fruits, vegetables and milk powder.  The essential items ran out of stock in stores adding to the agony of the public.  The public suffering from prolonged shortages and high prices gathered in mass protests demanding the resignation of Rajapaksas in power as president and prime minister. By July 9, 2022 it snowballed into Aragalaya, a national movement spearheaded by university students. When ruling party goons and troops tried to suppress the protests, irate mobs ransacked the houses of President Gotabaya and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. The Aragalaya protests forced President Gotabaya to flee the country. Some semblance of order was restored when the parliament installed Ranil Wickremesinghe as interim president.

India-Sri Lanka vision document

India played a crucial role in supporting Sri Lanka during the economic crisis and recovery thereafter. India provided over $4 billion in financial aid during its financial crisis. The aid included credit lines for essential imports of food, medicines and fuel. India was the first bilateral creditor to offer financing assurances to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which paved the way for other creditors to follow suit. This enabled Sri Lanka to meet the conditions for formalising the IMF programme for financial assistance. India also participated in debt restructuring agreements along with other countries i.e., China, France and Japan. These agreements allowed Sri Lanka to restructure its debt on more favourable terms.

India and Sri Lanka formalised their economic partnership after detailed discussion during President Wickremesinghe’s visit to New Delhi on July 21, 2023. President Wickremesinghe specially appreciated India’s timely, unprecedented, and crucial support to Sri Lanka and its people. India and Sri Lanka agreed upon an economic partnership vision to speed up Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. The vision document’s title “Promoting Connectivity, Catalysing Prosperity: India-Sri Lanka Economic Partnership Vision” contains the key elements of the partnership. The plan is to strengthen the maritime, air, energy and people-to-people connectivity between the two countries. They have signed six energy agreements, including an oil pipeline from India to Sri Lanka, electricity grid connectivity and cooperation on renewable energy.

India’s decision to allow the use of Indian rupee for trade settlement between the two countries and allowing the use of UPI based digital payment system is likely to boost trade and tourism. Already there are signs of improvement in Indian tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka and we can expect it to grow exponentially when ferry services and air connectivity are beefed up.

With South India becoming an industrial and IT hub, a multipurpose infrastructure link with Sri Lanka would bring a sea change in economic growth of the island nation. With Tamil Nadu becoming the heartland of automobile industry and IT manufacture, such a link would particularly benefit the Northern and Eastern provinces.

Contentious issues

A land bridge connecting India and Sri Lanka across the Palk Strait is one of the ideas mooted in the  joint vision statement. It is not a new idea; the then PM Ranil Wickremesinghe had proposed it in 2004. The proposal for a 23 km long Palk Strait Bridge met with intense opposition in Sri Lanka. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Ms Jayalalithaa was also opposed to the idea on security considerations. In 2015, India’s transport minister Nitin Gadkari proposed to build the ‘Hanuman bridge’ with the aid of the Asian Development Bank as a part of the Trans Asian road network. However, it was shot down by Sri Lanka Minister for highways Lakshman Kiriella. He said “We are against it because people of Sri Lanka are opposed to it. We cannot let India build a bridge.” As Sri Lanka had joined the BRI just then; apparently Sri Lanka did not want to upset China. Moreover, India’s domination of Sri Lankan life is resented by sections of people in all political parties.

It will not be easy for President Wickremesinghe to politically sell the idea of a land bridge with India, particularly when he is contesting the presidential election in September 2024. The attitude of Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) with its strong Sinhala nationalist moorings and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and its cohorts is no better. The land bridge proposal can be used by them to whip up anti-India rhetoric. Even a non- political personality like Colombo Archbishop Malcom Cardinal Ranjith had opposed the land bridge proposal from the pulpit. 

The India-Sri Lanka vision document also speaks of two other issues that are contentious. The first is on encouraging Indian investments in the divestment of Sri Lankan State-owned Enterprises (SOE). This sale of SOE is already mired in political controversy. The Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) proposal to comprehensively enhance bilateral trade and investments has already become a politically sensitive issue. Some stakeholders like domestic businesses in Sri Lanka fear increased competition from India can put them out of business. There are differences in regulatory frameworks and standards between the two countries. Harmonizing them will require full cooperation and effort. There is public opposition from professional bodies and trade unions in Sri Lanka who worry about the influx of professionals from India reducing their opportunities for employment. Similarly, some fear the huge economic disparity between the “big brother” India and Sri Lanka could lead to Indian domination of certain sectors gaining unequal benefits.

Adequate infrastructure and connectivity are essential for smooth implementation of ETCA. Both countries need to invest to improve logistics, transportation, digital trade and services for people to see the advantages of economic technical connectivity. Similarly, the two countries should invest in building trust through people to people connectivity at various levels particularly through increased links with academic institutions, professional bodies and civil society organisations in both countries.

Despite these challenges, both India and Sri Lanka seem to recognize the potential benefits of ETCA and continue to work towards it. After all, the India-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement (FTA) has been quite successful in enhancing economic ties between the two countries.

Bilateral trade has grown from $658 million in 2000, when the FTA was signed, to $5.45 billion in 2021 before Covid-19 pandemic queered the pitch of growth. Sri Lanka benefited considerably from the FTA with more than 60 percent of its exports to India utilizing the provisions of the agreement. This enabled Sri Lankan products to enter the Indian market with zero tariff. As against this, only 5 percent of India’s exports to Sri Lanka used FTA provisions. India is one of the largest investors, exceeding $2.2 billion in 2021. India has been the largest source of tourists to Sri Lanka further strengthening the island nation's economy. Overall, the ISFTA has played a crucial role in deepening the economic and commercial partnership between India and Sri Lanka, benefiting both nations in various sectors.

Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com Website: https://col.hariharan.info

 

The Canada Standoff

No one has been arrested so far for Hardeep Singh Nijjar’s murder and police investigations are still going on. So, what prompted Trudeau to escalate the issue and accuse India of his killing based on “credible information” on the floor of parliament? And follow it up with the expulsion of an Indian diplomat?

 By Col R Hariharan |Columns | Magazine| India Legal | Sept 30, 2023

https://www.indialegallive.com/magazine/india-canada-trudeau-khalistani-hardeep-singh-nijjar-five-eyes/ 

India-Canada relations that took a severe beating a fortnight ago after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, accused India of complicity in the murder of a Canadian citizen and Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, are showing no signs of recovery. The reason for this is simple; as External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar puts it: “(Khalistan) separatism, crime, and terror all mixed up” in this issue. Nijjar was shot dead outside the Gurdwara he presided over in a suburb of Vancouver, British Columbia, on June 18, 2023. Trudeau chose on the floor of Canadian parliament to accuse India for Nijjar’s killing, based on “credible allegations of potential link” between Indian government agents. The accusation shocked India, which dismissed it as “absurd and motivated.” The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) in a hard-hitting statement said: “Similar allegations were made by the Canadian PM to our PM and were completely rejected.” (It was referring to their meeting on the sidelines of the G20 Summit meeting. PM Modi had conveyed “strong concerns” about “extremist elements in Canada” who were “promoting secessionism and violence against Indian diplomats, damaging premises and threatening the Indian community in Canada and their places of worship.”)

The MEA statement further affirmed “such unsubstantiated allegations seek to shift the focus from Khalistani terrorists and extremists, who have been provided shelter in Canada and continue to threaten India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity….the inaction of the Canadian Government on this matter has been a long standing and continuing concern… The space given in Canada to a range of illegal activities, including murders, human trafficking and organised crime is not new.” It urged the Canadian government “to take prompt and effective legal action against all anti-India elements operating from their soil.”

The issue of Khalistan terrorist presence in Canada is not new; it had come up when the two leaders met on the sidelines of the G-7 plus Summit in Germany in May 2022.  Trudeau during his latest visit to New Delhi had confirmed that he had discussed with PM Modi India’s concerns over Khalistani groups. He added: “Canada will always defend freedom of expression, freedom of conscience, and freedom of peaceful protest and it is extremely important to us. At the same time, we are always there to prevent violence and to push back against hatred.” The Canadian prime minister said the actions of a “few” did not represent the whole community or country. That had been Canada’s refrain to soft pedal Khalistan extremist activities.

Trudeau’s actions cannot be dismissed merely as a diplomatic faux pas. It is easy to attribute it to compulsions of domestic politics, because Nijjar was an influential Sikh, involved in organising a “referendum” on Khalistan. As a militant leader of Khalistan Tiger Force, Nijjar has a criminal record in India that secured him two Interpol Red Corner notices. He visited Pakistan in 2013-14 where he met with Jagtar Singh Tara of Babbar Khalsa International and was recruited in the ISI. In 2020, India designated Nijjar a terrorist under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act. Last but not least, he was probably a double agent working for Canada. His son Balraj Singh Nijjar has said his father had been meeting with Canadian Security Intelligence Service officers “once or twice a week”, including one or two days before his murder.

The American ambassador to Canada, David Cohen, has clarified that the Canadian prime minister’s allegation was based on “shared intelligence among Five Eyes partners.” Five Eyes is an intelligence alliance between the US, the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Originally, it was created as a US-UK alliance in 1941 to share signals intelligence. In the post-war years, it came to be known as Five Eyes after Canada, Australia and New Zealand were admitted. Ambassador Cohen further added: “There was a lot of communication between Canada and the US about this. We have been coordinating with the Canadians on this issue. And from our perspective, it is critical that the Canadian investigations proceed, and it would be important that India work with the Canadians on this investigation. We want to see accountability, and it is important that the investigation runs its course and leads to that result.” The US, UK, Australia and New Zealand have been cautious in their comments; they have expressed their concern and encouraged India to collaborate in the ongoing investigation.

On the positive side, Trudeau’s open accusation of India’s complicity in Nijjar killing has provided India an opportunity to relook at its actions against Khalistan extremism, both at home and abroad. This is evident from Jaishankar’s speech at the “Discussion at Council on Foreign Relations” in New York. He said: “In the last few years, Canada actually has seen a lot of organized crime, relating to the secessionist forces, organized crime, violence and extremism. They’re all very, very deeply mixed up….in fact, we have been talking about specifics and information.

“Indian government has provided the Canadian side with a lot of information about organised crime and there has been a large number of extradition requests. There are terrorist leaders, who have been identified,” he further added. “So, we have a situation where our diplomats are threatened, our consulates have been attacked….A lot of this is often justified, as saying that’s how democracies work.” Jaishankar further said: “If there is any incident which is an issue and somebody gives me something specific, as a government, I would look at it.”

At home, India has taken firm action. It is filing cases in the UK against 15 Khalistani Indian passport holders, who had vandalised the Indian high commission premises in London. The National Intelligence Agency (NIA) is currently carrying out raids in 51 locations in six states targeting individuals linked to three notorious gangs—Lawrence Bishnoi, Bambiha and Arshadeep Dalla—associated with the Khalistani criminal network. The NIA has ordered the seizure of the Indian properties of 19 Khalistani fugitives, including that of Gurpatwant Singh Pannu, general counsel of the banned pro-Khalistan outfit Sikhs for Justice (SFJ). India has temporarily closed its visa office in Canada and stopped the entry of OCI and PIO card holders. These measures seem to have affected the number of pro-Khalistan supporters gathering to protest outside the Indian consulate in Vancouver after these orders. In the last count, there were hardly a dozen protesters. 

However, the future course of India-Canada relations is not clear. Perhaps, some clarity will emerge when the slated meeting of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Jaishankar takes place in the next few days. Hopefully, some measures can probably be expected to defuse the India-Canada standoff.

—The writer is a retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies

Chandrayan-3: Looking beyond the successful mission Q & A

Col R Hariharan

Here are my answers to media questions on the successful lunar mission Chandrayan-3..

Q How do you see India’s successful lunar mission to the South Pole of the moon and its impact beyond the moon mission?

India's successful landing of Chandrayan-3 on the South Pole points to many other aspects of than India's scientific and technical capabilities. These less visible aspects are –

A.   Political leadership: PM Modi's full support to ISRO during the last 9 years has energized ISRO to go the extra mile. The moral of the story is political leadership commitment is essential for scientific and technological progress in 3rd world democratic countries

 

B.   Cost effectiveness of the whole project has proved that space programs can be successfully carried out without eating into other development programs.

C.  The ISRO team had only 2 percent of IIT graduates breaks the myth that elite education is essential for tech achievements.

D.  Hard work of a host of specialised MSMEs who had supplied thousands of parts required for the project has been acknowledged by the ISRO chief. This shows that India can successfully embark upon projects requiring precision engineering research and technology i.e. aircraft and tank engine manufacture and hypersonic weapons research.

Q: Post Chandrayaan-3, does India emerge as a major leader of south Asia and in its war game with China and countries such as Pakistan begin to see it with more respect? How much significance does India's lunar mission success hold in this part of the world?

Good questions! 

Of course, Chandrayan-3 success, is likely to make China re-look at India's research and technical effort in Atmanirbhar projects relating to military weapons and procurement efforts with the serious it deserves. 

I expect this to impact China to carefully re-assess India's strategic moves in South Asia and in Indian Ocean Region to regain its influence. The elections in Bangladesh and Maldives are likely see some stoking of anti-India lobbies using Chinese money.

As far as Pakistan is concerned, China is probably alarmed at increasing US influence particularly in Pak army. And in tandem with India's clear message on Eastern Ladakh border at the 19^th round of talks it had recently, China is likely to go soft on India till Pakistan settles down.

India-Sri Lanka economic partnership and ethnic reconciliation

Col R Hariharan | Sri Lanka Perspectives July 2023 | South Asia Security Trends August 2023 | www.security-risks.com

 

President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s July 20-21 visit to New Delhi ended with India and Sri Lanka jointly evolving an economic partnership vision   to speed up Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs released the India-Sri Lanka Economic Partnership Vision document on July 21, 2023 after the visiting President met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The document titled “Promoting Connectivity, Catalysing Prosperity: India-Sri Lanka Economic Partnership Vision” shows that both countries have agreed upon promoting multilateral connectivity for catalysing Sri Lanka’s economic recovery.

In the media statement released after the vision document was adopted, Prime Minister Narendra Modi summed up the vision - ‘to strengthen the maritime, air, energy and people-to-people connectivity’ between the two countries. The vision is to accelerate mutual-cooperation in tourism, power, trade, higher education and skill development. It said the vision was India’s long-term commitment towards Sri Lanka.

In Sri Lanka, the Vision statement is likely to be welcomed particularly the decision to allow the use of Indian rupee for trade settlement between the two countries and operationalising UPI based digital payment system.

However, some of the decisions like facilitating investment from India in the divestment of Sri Lankan state owned enterprises and discussing an Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement are likely to provoke the opposition protest.  

PM Modi’s statement indicated that some of the perennial unresolved issues between the two countries were also discussed, though the Vision document did not mention them. These included the humane approach needed to handle the issue of Indian fishermen poaching in Sri Lanka waters and ethnic reconciliation.

On ethnic reconciliation, PM Modi spoke of President Wickremesinghe telling him about his inclusive approach. The PM’s statement hoped “the Government of Sri Lanka will fulfil the aspirations of the Tamils. Will drive the process of rebuilding for equality, justice and peace. Will fulfil its commitment to implement the 13th Amendment and conduct the Provincial Council Elections. And will ensure a life of respect and dignity for the Tamil community of Sri Lanka.”

India’s Foreign Secretary Kwatra at a media briefing said the PM conveyed to President Wickremesinghe that India continues to look forward to a political solution that addresses the aspirations of the Tamil community for equality, justice, self-respect within the framework of a united and prosperous Sri Lanka. The Foreign Secretary also indicated that China’s increasing forays into the Indian Ocean was also touched upon during the meeting.

13A - Elephant in the room

President Wickremesinghe in his media statement said he shared with the Indian PM “comprehensive proposal” he presented earlier for “furthering reconciliation, power sharing through devolution and the multiple elements of the Northern development plan. The President’s ‘comprehensive proposal’ envisaged implementing the 13 A in the North and East excluding the grant of police powers to the provincial council. However, at the all party conference convened on President Wickremesinghe’s return from Sri Lanka, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) stuck to its demand for holding the PC elections immediately and finding a federal solution to the ethnic reconciliation. The stand of many political parties including the main opposition SJB on the President’s proposal is confused and not clear.

The TNA in a statement issued on July 30 ““The TNA unequivocally conveyed to the President at the very first all-party conference on 10 December 2022, that the PCs Elections must be held without further delay. We also discussed measures necessary to make devolution meaningful. Several discussions were held with the President and at the second all-party conference on 26 January 2023, we again reiterated our position. It was the same position that was conveyed at the last all-party conference that was held on 26 July 2023.” So, the President’s effort on implementing 13A sans police powers for the PCs has become a non-starter. It is doubtful that President Wickremesinghe would expend his energies on this issue, as there is a lot of churn up within the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) whose support is essential for the President to act.

It is time Tamil parties accepted the proposal of implementing 13A sans police powers, provided policemen posted to the North and East have functional knowledge of Tamil. This would be a true test of sincerity of the President’s intent to implement 13A in a modified form. It will also be an acid test for mainstream political parties on their support to ethnic reconciliation.

But the President may not want that as his priority is likely to be to delay the holding of the PC elections rather than burying the 13A issue once and for all. After all, political parties on all sides need the ethnic confrontation issue as the carrot when they go to the voters in the next poll, whether it is the PC or presidential poll next year. So 13A is likely to continue to be the elephant in the room in future discourse between India and Sri Lanka on ethnic reconciliation.

The roots of 13^th Amendment to Sri Lanka Constitution lie in the1983 Black July pogrom and its aftermath. Though Tamils have faced violence at the hands of Sinhala majority in 1956, 1958, 1977 and 1981, Black July was vastly different in scale and execution of targeted violence against Tamils and their properties and businesses.

It escalated the traditional ethnic confrontation to irreconcilable ethnic conflict situation. The pogrom initially orchestrated by the ruling United National Party (UNP) under President JR Jayawardane, was triggered by the death of 13 soldiers ambushed by the LTTE near Jaffna on July 23, 1983. When the arrival of their bodies was delayed for an ill-conceived state funeral in Colombo on July 24, over 10,000 Sinhalas went berserk. In the week long pogrom that followed over 3000 Tamils were killed, over 200,000 people were displaced and countless houses and 2500 business enterprises of Tamils were destroyed.

Though four decades have passed its scars are still hurting the process of ethnic reconciliation. The Black July pogrom led to major intervention by India that resulted in the India-Sri Lanka Agreement 1987(ISLA). India’s military intervention to ensure the enforcement of the ISLA was far from smooth. Events in its aftermath has left a lot of bitterness on both sides of the Palk Strait.

One of the fortuitous things ISLA achieved was enabling the passage of the 13A. It may not be as powerful as the 13^th Amendment to the US Constitution that led to the abolition of slavery and servitude in the country. But 13A’s impact on the ethnic reconciliation was significant: it gives a level of autonomy to the Tamil minority with the creation of provincial councils. Though provincial councils were created, they were never given powers over the police and land. In the absence of these powers, they have been reduced to glorified municipalities.

President Wickremesinghe cannot wish away the implementation of 13A because PM Modi is firm on it. He had hoped in his statement “the Government of Sri Lanka will fulfil the aspirations of the Tamils. Will drive the process of rebuilding for equality, justice and peace. Will fulfil its commitment to implement the 13th Amendment and conduct the Provincial Council Elections. And will ensure a life of respect and dignity for the Tamil community (italics added) of Sri Lanka.” The use of three "wills" in the statement indicates his mindset. PM Modi is determined to win over the voters from Tamil Nadu in the 2024 parliamentary election. Resolving the ethnic issue in Sri Lanka will give him a huge leg up in the election, at least in BJP’s reckoning. RW should not underestimate Modi.

Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com  Website: https://col.hariharan.info]