Restructuring of Sri Lanka armed forces

Col R Hariharan | Sri Lanka Strategic Perspectives, July 2026 | www.security-risk.com

 

During the nearly three decades of fighting Tamil separatists and two insurrections by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), the Sri Lanka armed forces had expanded. In three years of the final instalment of the Eelam, the Sri Lankan Armed Forces had employed approximately 300,000 to 450,000 personnel (across all branches of uniformed forces) to crush around 20,000 cadres of the LTTE.

When President Mahinda Rajapaksa was elected in 2005, military strength was only 125,000. However, by the time the last Eelam war ended in May 2009, the Army had tripled its strength. As the LTTE had a sea presence, the Sri Lanka Navy had expanded to about 48,000 personnel. Sri Lanka Air Force had roughly 28,000 to 30,000 personnel involved in the war. During the final offensive, the SLAF provided vital close-air support and reconnaissance. Nearly 80,000 paramilitary personnel including the Police, the Home Guards etc, were also involved in the final episode of Eelam war.

As the LTTE enigma continued to haunt Sri Lanka politics both internally and externally, Sri Lanka government did not make any serious effort to prune its bloated armed forces. In fact, the country did the exact opposite: it continued to recruit new personnel, maintained a massive standing military, and progressively increased its defence spending during peacetime.

When the island nation was going broke from months of food and fuel shortages in January 2023, the Ranil Wickremesinghe government announced that Sri Lanka will slash its army by a third to 135,000 personnel by 2024. The aim was to reduce it to 100,000 by 2030, the state minister of defence has said, as the country tried to cut costs.

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, while addressing the Galle District Special Co-ordination Committee Meeting held on July 28, said four months after presenting a budget, it was not justifiable, from the perspective of the public, to allocate a larger share of resources towards maintaining Government operations. Accordingly, he noted the recurrent expenditure, which currently stands at 9%, while increasing capital expenditure, currently at 4%, to support greater investment in development.

The President further stated that plans are in place to allocate Rs.2 trillion for capital expenditure in 2027, representing an increase of approximately 40%.

President Dissanayaka was referring to Sri Lanka's 2026 national budget which was approved by the Parliament on 5 December 2025. In the approved estimates for the financial year 2026, total government expenditure is projected at SLRs 8.9tn ($30bn) for the year. This represents an increase of 1.6% as compared to the 2025 budget. Of the total, recurrent expenditure is estimated at SLRs 5.7tn ($19.1bn) and capital expenditure at SLRs3.3tn ($10.9bn).

Most of the Ministry of Defence budget goes for recurrent expenditure, and this year $1.29 billion was allocated for that purpose. Only about $203 million has been allocated for capital expenditure. The bulk of the Ministry of Public Security budget (about $540 million) has also been earmarked for recurrent expenses.

During his speech in Parliament as the Minister of Defence, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake said that his government is committed to the decision taken by the previous government to reduce troop numbers. 

“Our vision is to develop a technologically advanced military with a smaller yet more effective force by 2030. We plan to limit the size of our army to 100,000, the Air Force to 18,000, and the Navy to 40,000,” he said.

Progress in manpower reductions

Sri Lanka has made considerable progress in the military downsizing and technological modernization blueprint it had announced in January 2023. Though the blueprint was designed to pull the nation out of its worst financial crisis, its aim was to convert the bloated civil-war era armed forces into a streamlined, high-tech defence asset by 20230.

In a small country like Sri Lanka, armed forces are a source of government employment. So to prevent mass unemployment and social destabilisation that follows, the Ministry of Defence is said to have avoided haphazard layoffs. Instead, natural retirements and a strict attrition-based hiring freeze is being followed. This has enabled the intake of recruits to be kept below the number of outgoing retirees.

The structural changes follow a phased implementation schedule to achieve the aim by 2030. This involves aggressively trimming personnel costs, which had historically accounted for half of the entire public safety bill.

According to reports the Army has successfully met its interim target of shrinking active strength from over 200,000 personnel to 135,000. The final objective will be to further tighten it to 100,000 soldiers by 2030.

On the other hand, the Navy and the Air Force do not face such giant cuts. They have to systematically rebalance their rank and file. The SLN is on track to maintain a streamlined force of 40,000 sailors. The Air Force, on the other hand is settling roughly 18,000 to 30,000 to focus on Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) for maritime patrolling and anti-piracy operations.

Budget realities of technological modernisation

According to the restructuring blueprint, the money saved from wages was to fund technical upgrades. However, the realities of the domestic fiscal state with currency fluctuations and rising cost of defence modernization has resulted in increased defence allocations to SLRs 437 billion. This has made Sri Lanka heavily rely on international partnership.

Luckily, Sri Lanka enjoys a lot of international goodwill that has enabled it to acquire capital equipment as bilateral aid. India has provided a $5 million defence aid package for supply of advanced military stores, a trauma care system and vehicle fleets. India has also replaced  a Navy Dornier maritime surveillance aircraft to boost its aerial surveillance of its EEZ.

The US has completed a $3 million equipment transfer to SLAF delivering critical air mobility gear, C-130 aircraft spares and paving the way for Beechcraft King Air 360 ER aircraft integration to enhance maritime security.

China’s strategy

While Western nations and India have focused on providing Sri Lanka modern maritime surveillance assets, Beijing has adopted a multi-pronged approach to Sri Lanka armed forces downsizing and technological modernisation. The three facets of China’s role are economic facilitation, hardware supply and extensive military training.

China is Sri Lanka’s largest single bilateral creditor in 2022; so China’s agreement to restructure its debt enabled Sri Lanka to secure a $2.9 billion bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).This indirectly helped Sri Lanka to go through its armed forces reform.

Sri Lanka is dependent upon China for affordable, high-end defence hardware. This has enabled SLN to go ahead with naval fleet upgrades. For instance China delivered additional Type 053H2G frigates under a special transfer of technology arrangement. These are vital for Sri Lanka to patrol sea lanes of communication and prevent smuggling.  SLAF has inducted China-built Harbin Y-12 IV aircraft to maintain tactical mobility with a smaller standing workforce.

China has continued to provide direct material aid. These include a RMB 10 million ($1.4 million) supply package to the Ministry of Defence to subsidize its operational equipment cost. As Sri Lanka Army downsizes its personnel toward the 100,000 strength, it requires a highly specialized, technically capable officer corps to operate its modernizing systems. China has stepped in to fill this training gap: China has absorbed a "considerable number" of junior, middle-grade, and senior Sri Lankan military officers into its defence academies for advanced technological and strategy courses.

The President has the thankless task of pruning the bloated armed forces, while it continues to be relevant to the dynamic changes taking place in the strategic sphere. But downsizing an army is a delicate task, particularly if one wants it to be ready to perform in a sensitive strategic zone like the Indian Ocean.

I hope President Dissanayaka remembers  what US Army General Omar Bradley said on handling armed forces. He said, "An army is a delicate mechanism, not a mechanical structure that can be easily dismantled and rebuilt. You cannot prune the armed forces without weakening the entire defence posture of a nation.”

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Website: https://.col.hariharan@net Email:haridirect@gmail.com,]

Sri Lanka: Maritime Matters in a Month of Choke points

 

Col R Hariharan in Sri Lanka Perspectives April 2026  outlines how the AKD government is managing one of the gravest economic and energy crises faced by the Island Nation eve as it is on the path of fiscal recovery.

During the month of April, the Straits of Hormuz continued to face the ‘double blockade’ of both the US and Iran. The word ceasefire in West Asian wars has lost its meaning as Israel continues to pound Iran’s proxies in Southern Lebanon. The war has triggered an energy crisis in most of Asia, particularly India, China and Japan. This is more so in the case of import-dependent small nations like Sri Lanka and Maldives, already struggling with economic recovery in the post-Covid period. After the US’ ill-conceived leadership decapitation operations in Iran there is leadership confusion in Teheran. With POTUS Donald Trump in “full flow” at the other end of the table, nobody really seems to know when maritime traffic will restored in the Straits of Hormuz.

President Anura Kumara Dissanayaka’s current plight in handling the economic uncertainties triggered by the turbulence in world order due to the “choking” fits of Iran war brings to mind, George Bernard Shaw’s famous lines from My Fair Lady of the heroine Eliza Doolittle: "I sold flowers. I didn't sell myself. Now you have made me a lady, I am not fit to sell anything."

Despite such adverse circumstances, Sri Lanka celebrated the Sinhala and Tamil New Year (Avurudu) on April 14, 2026, with traditional rituals. The AKD government timed its relief package—fuel subsidies, electricity concessions, and cash transfers—to coincide with the festival easing household expenses during the celebrations to shield citizens from the economic shock of the West Asia war. It focuses on key elements of shortage: fuel, energy, fertilizer and cash transfers. Fuel subsidies in terms of litres amount to diesel LKR 100 and petrol LKR 20 cost. Fuel subsidies will the government LKR 20 billion/month. Electricity concessions of the Government cover the cost for households consuming under 90 units/month for three months.

The government has introduced QR-code based rationing system limiting weekly fuel quotas by vehicle type, ensuring equitable distribution. Temporary 4-day work week was introduced to conserve energy; however later it was increased to 5 days/week.

Last month, Sri Lanka managed to get an emergency supply of 38,000 MT petroleum (20,000 MT diesel + 18,000 MT petrol) from India. The government is now in talks with Russia and China to secure fuel, gas, coal and fertilizer supplies.

An Economic Monitoring Committee has been established to track supply chains and negotiate with partner nations. To ensure macroeconomic stabilisation, Central Bank purchased USD 700 million to strengthen forex reserves to nearly USD 7 billion. Relief package aligned with ongoing IMF program (USD 2.9 billion assistance since 2022 crisis).

Sri Lanka’s approach so far blends short-term relief (subsidies, cash transfers) with long-term resilience (energy diplomacy, IMF programme). The aim appears to be to protect citizens without derailing fiscal recovery. However, securing reliable external energy supplies and sustaining confidence in economic management can only guarantee success of the government’s current relief measures targeted at fuel, energy, and cash transfers to cushion citizens from the West Asia war. This is contrast with Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s COVID-era measures (2020–2022) focused on moratoriums, debt relief, and food security during lockdowns. The key difference lies in the present government’s emphasis on external energy diplomacy versus Gotabaya’s reliance on domestic fiscal concessions.

However, question remains on how long the government can offer a relief package of LKR 100 billion beyond three months. Current fuel stock is expected to last until end-May 2026. Beyond fuel supply stability depends on successful deals with Russia and China.

Sri Lanka and China are formalising a framework to settle trade directly in Renminbi (RMB) as a strategic move by both to movie away from a traditional reliance on the US Dollar for their trade. Governor of the Central Bank, Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe and the Governor of the People’s Bank of China, Dr. Pan Gongsheng are believed to have discussed this on the sidelines of the recent IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington. According to the Sunday Times the process is built on a direct clearing and settlement mechanism designed to bypass intermediary western banks. China has an agreement with Sri Lanka for RMB 10 billion (about US$1.4 bn) bilateral currency swap, renewed in early 2025. This will provide the necessary “liquidity cushion” to facilitate these settlements. This will mean Sri Lanka shifting a portion of the $4.3 billion annual trade with China to RMB there by reducing the pressure on Sri Lanka’s limited US dollar reserves.

Since 2022, India and Sri Lanka have a similar arrangement to conduct trade in Indian Rupees (INR) to facilitate international trade settlement in local currency, reducing reliance on the US Dollar. To facilitate this, Sri Lankan banks open Special Rupee Vostro Accounts (SRVA) with Indian banks to settle export and import invoices directly in INR. Sri Lanka's Central Bank officially designated the INR as a "designated foreign currency" in August 2022. The RBI allowed trade transactions with Sri Lanka to be settled in INR outside the usual ACU mechanism. This has helped Indian importers pay in INR into the SRVA, and Indian exporters receive their proceeds in INR from these accounts. Sri Lankan citizens are permitted to hold up to USD 10,000 (approximately INR 8.14 lakhs) in physical Indian currency. Indian tourists can use INR for transactions in Sri Lanka, and students or tourists can withdraw up to $5,000 equivalent in INR as a travel allowance.

The biggest advantage of this arrangement is the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) and LankaPay have integrated the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) to simplify digital transactions for Indian tourists in Sri Lanka. 

India strengthens its strategic relations

During the month, India strengthened its strategic relations with Sri Lanka with the first ever visit of its Vice President CP Radhakrishnan to Sri Lanka. During the visit, a number of Indian aided projects including the developing of Trincomalee as a regional hub, completion of 50,000 houses under Indian Housing Project, restoration of Northern Railway services with new bridge infrastructure came up for discussion.

On the maritime front, the biggest news was India's premier defence shipyard Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (MDL) acquiring a 51% controlling stake in Colombo Dockyard PLC (CDPLC) for approximately $26.8 million (₹249.5 crore). As Times of India says the acquisition is a strategic hedge against China's the 99-year lease of Hambantota Port in the South. CDPLC is located at the junction of the vital East-West shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). This gives MDL an offshore node for the repair, maintenance, and refit of naval and commercial vessels without straining domestic infrastructure.

India gains access to four graving dry docks with a maximum capacity of 125,000 deadweight tonnes (DWT) and a skilled workforce of 3,000, immediately augmenting its shipbuilding ecosystem.  Sri Lanka is equally benefitted because the CDPLC had been facing severe financial stress. In 2023, it recorded a loss of LKR 11.1 billion. MDL’s capital infusion and backing will help the resolve "going concern’s" audit issues and stabilized the company's finances.

More than all this, with MDL's support, CDPLC has secured the largest contract in its history—a $150 million deal with France's Orange Marine to build two advanced cable-laying vessels. Moreover, CDPLC has now access to Indian supply chains, enhancing its global competitiveness. MDL’s partnership will help CDPLC to secure bank guarantees.

Tailpiece: The new year hasn’t got off on the right foot for AKD and the ruling NPP. The “clean” government is bugged by two scams: continued import of substandard coal and the breach of the Finance Ministry’s computer systems, which resulted in a loss of USD 2.5 million to hackers. AKD at the helm would do well to follow the leadership advice of Lee Iacocca, the legendary American automotive executive. The “capitalist” who steered Chrysler to recovery, said "In times of great stress or adversity, it's always best to keep busy, to plow your anger and your energy into something positive."  Already the President seems to be busy on the lines suggested by Lee.

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Website: https://.col.hariharan@net  Email: haridirect@gmail.com,]

https://www.security-risks.com/post/sri-lanka-maritime-matters-in-a-month-of-choke-points  

Sri Lanka looks to an eventful 2026

 Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives January 2026 | South Asia Security Trends, February  2026 |https://www.security-risks.com  

Sri Lanka had weathered political, economic and climatic maelstrom in the last three years after the Aragalaya – spontaneous uprising of the people - dethroned the Rajapaksas from power in 2022.  During the last two years President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and his left-leaning National Peoples Power (NPP) government had hopefully come to terms with the harsh reality of governing with systems polluted by unhealed sores of three decades of ethnic conflict. AKD’s government has inherited the systemic aberrations of cronyism, corruption and misgovernance.

Faced with the woes of national economic bankruptcy, AKD has found it is better to “reconcile” than “renegotiate” (as NPP had promised during the run up to the election) the norms set by International Monetary Fund (IMF) for economic revival. His government led by Prime Minister Dr Harini Abeyasekara taking their baby steps at governance could hardly cope with the demands of reforming the ingrained systemic aberrations. This is being exposed every day on simple issues like introducing education reforms, appointing the police chief or advocate general with clean hands, let alone prosecuting political leaders like the Rajapaksas,

As the country marches to celebrate its 78^th Independence Day next month, it will be useful for AKD and his JVP colleagues to ponder over the words of Martin Luther King Jr: “And since we knew that the system will not change the rules, we are going to have to change the system."

During the year 2026, AKD will not be able to embark upon any major systemic changes without drawing up a new constitution. He has promised to abolish the executive presidency which is not possible without systemic changes.  NPP had promised to hold the much-delayed provincial council elections in the first six months of 2026. The NPP is hardly be ready for it as its grassroot support is not as widespread as other national parties.

The NPP cannot retain its new found support in North and East without showing some progress on human rights aberrations inflicted upon Tamils. Justice and National Integration Minister Harshana Nanayakkara has said investigations into more than 11,000 complaints related to missing persons will be completed within the next two years. He has clarified that though additional staff have been recruited and money allocated for their training investigations into only 5,000 complaints are expected to be concluded this year.

It is not going to be easy to abolish or amend the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) as promised as vested interests within the system have misused it. Big-ticket prosecutions are pending of political leaders like Ranil Wickremesinghe and Namal Rajapaksa. They are in the cycle of prosecution. Will they be finished to show NPP holds its election promises true, before going for yet another election?

Changes in Strategic environment in Indian Ocean

The 2025 US National Security Strategy (NSS), released by the Trump administration on December 4, 2025 is likely to serves as a roadmap for the "America First" foreign policy to be followed during the year. The NSS focuses on transactional, sovereign-driven, and interventionist principles. 

The NSS reshuffles the traditional hierarchy of U.S. regional focus. The Western Hemisphere now outranks the Indo‑Pacific as the primary regional focus.

China is no longer described as a long‑term strategic threat but primarily an economic problem. Russia is not portrayed as a dangerously revisionist power but as a state that “maddens Europeans” and with whom the U.S. can reach strategic stability. The document criticizes European governance, political culture, and demographic trends, using terms like “civilizational erasure.”

The 2025 NSS represents a significant break from post‑Cold War US’ strategic thinking. It narrows U.S. global ambitions and rejects the idea that permanent American global dominance and emphasizes a tighter definition of U.S. national interests. The US is likely to reduce its willingness to carry “global burdens” not directly tied to its national interests.

During the year 2026, strategic environment in Indian Ocean is likely to face the after effects of POTUS Trump is creating a huge foreign policy churn-up affecting Indo-Pacific theatre. As a result, a reset in US relations with India, Japan and the European Union is likely during the year.

The NSS introduces flexible realism—a pragmatic approach that prioritizes issues most relevant to U.S. national interest. It moves away from comprehensive, all‑encompassing strategies and allows unilateral action when necessary. This marks a departure from earlier NSS documents that attempted to cover every region and issue.

The NSS has serious geopolitical implications for countries in India and its Indian Ocean neighbours (as a part of Indo Pacific theatre). For instance, in 2017, US considered India a “major defence partner” and counterweight to China. In 2022, in US eyes India became central to Indo‑Pacific, Quad, technical and supply‑chain diversification. In 2025, US considered India still useful as a balancing partner with more U.S transactional ‘bandwidth’.

It implies more room for strategic autonomy for India as there will be less U.S. ideological pressure on democracy or human rights and more space for issue‑based alignment. But if Western Hemisphere and domestic issues dominate, India cannot assume to have sustained U.S. attention in every Indo‑Pacific contingency. We can expect more emphasis on trade, supply chains, critical minerals and less on expansive security guarantees.

Similarly, the NSS speaks of US policy change towards China from systemic rival and challenge (2022) to economic competitor and problem creator (2025). It implies lower ideological Cold War, higher focus on US tariffs, industrial policy and tech controls. Military competition will persist, but with less rhetoric about “democracy vs autocracy.” This provides the US more space for deals with China on trade, fentanyl, limited crisis management if they serve U.S. domestic economic narratives.

India’s strategic response to the “America First 2.0” posture in the NSS may be described as pragmatic multi‑alignment. It aims to deepen cooperation where interests converge, hedge where U.S. retrenchment creates uncertainty and expand autonomous capabilities to avoid being caught in Trump’s transactional approach. Already, India’s relations with China appears to have softened. India has announced PM Narendra Modi will be attending the 14th BRICS summit hosted by China in virtual format on June 23-24, 2026. This includes a High-Level Dialogue on Global Development with guest countries on June 24. We can expect both India and China to explain their multifaceted strategic response to changes in their strategic environment.    

Sri Lanka, a close strategic ally of India with important trading connections with China is likely under stress till the US policy fallout to island nations in Indian Ocean becomes clear during 2026. During the month, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi stopped over in Colombo during which he met the Sri Lanka PM. He did not call upon the President perhaps because he wanted to avoid embarrassing questions on the shake up in the Central Military Commission in China which going on since October 2025. Internal developments that follow in CMC is likely to keep President Xi Jinping busy for a few months in 2026.

Overall, we can expect President Dissanayake to be kept busy during 2026 with both internal and external developments in his strategic environment. AKD will have to keep his ear to the gear wheel if he want to deliver the changes he promised.

Obituary

The month saw the passing of two veteran columnists on Sri Lanka – one Indian and another Sri Lankan. Iqbal Athas, investigative journalist of Sri Lanka passed away on January 13 at the age of 81. He was known for his fearless investigations on defence and political affairs, published in his "Situation Report" column for The Sunday Times. He gained international attention when he exposed major irregularities in the purchase of four second-hand fighter aircraft from Ukraine in 2006.The other - N. Sathiya Moorthy, veteran Indian journalist and policy analyst specializing in Sri Lanka and the Maldives, was my friend. He passed away on January 15, 2026, in Chennai at the age of 71. He was widely respected for his in-depth analysis of South Asian politics, particularly the internal dynamics of Sri Lankan and Maldivian affairs and their implications for India.

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Blog site: https://col.hariharan.net  Email: haridirect@gmail.com,] 

Trump & understanding the emerging strategic equation: Q & A - 2

 Col R Hariharan 

Recently, a scribe raised a few questions after POTUS Donald Trump kidnapped Venezualan President Maduro. They largely pertained to the emerging strategic equatio. My answers are in two parts. The first part is available at https://col.hariharan.net/2026/01/trump-and-understanding-emerging.html.  Here are my answers to the rest of the questions:

 1.    There are no races for colonies today but yet the big powers are carving out their spheres of influence? Is it just a raw display of the realist strategy of IR?

I beg to differ. Despite Trump and MAGA philosophy, multilateralism is here to stay because of a few reasons: WTO has increased the global trade both in width and depth superpower equation has changed. Global South is finding a place in the first four economic powers with the US in the first place with China as an immediate challenger. They are followed by Russia, India, Japan, Germany and UK/France in that order.   

Secondly, warfare has changed in scale both in width and depth. Now hybrid warfare involving inciting the population through propaganda, cyberwarfare, misinformation used to soften target country before waging war. Drones in thousands tie down anti-aircraft systems, while long and short range missiles take on military command and control systems so vital in present day informatized scenario. This has garbled the traditional strategic equation of East and West. Global south are no more bystanders as India and China have made progress in both economic and military power.  These have the alliances between super powers ending clear cut equations. Terrorism at the global level has become an instrument to carry on the indirect warfare against big powers. Collective action at the UN has been rendered into irrelevance with a maverick POTUS cocking the snook at the UN. The very fact BRICS, ASEAN, for that matter even SCO have continued to flourish is a testimony as to collective action is no more superpower monopoly.

To sum up, multilateralism is here to stay as warfare is no more limited to land, air and sea; there are space, cyber and information warfare adding confusion to the battlefield.

Robotics is making an entry into battlefield; command and control systems in battlefields are poised to change when artificial intelligence makes a big entry future.

Trump cannot wish away newer energy sources emerging like ‘green hydrogen.’ Whether US likes it or not, natural phenomenon like global warming and downward in swing in population replacement rate are here to stay. This may mean new alliances and equations between countries

2. There are no alliance systems today. Is the lack of a balance of power a good thing or bad? 

I have not understood as alliances NATO, QUAD, BRICS, SCO etc continue to exist. There is nothing good or bad about balance of power. Alliances are formed to achieve a common objective, often to boost their strength through collective action

The US was never a colonial power and entered the world wars towards the end when it was hit. This time, it is playing a proactive role in triggering a global conflict. Could it hurt its invincibility in some way? Could China also emerge as a similar power today, given its policies and aggression vis-a-vis Taiwan?

3, The US was never a colonial power and entered the world wars towards the end when it was hit. This time, it is playing a proactive role in triggering a global conflict. Could it hurt its invincibility in some way? Could China also emerge as a similar power today, given its policies and aggression vis-a-vis Taiwan?

The U.S. military participated both in World War I and II by deploying over 2 million troops and 16 million troops respectively. They fought alongside Allies in crucial battles in contributing significant naval power (destroyers against U-boats), and providing massive financial, industrial, and material aid (loans, arms, food). It is now the largest naval power (though China might outnumber it in warships). It will continue to support Europea war efforts against common enemy i.e. Russia and Iran.

But US may not overtly support Taiwan invasion by China as it has acknowledged "One China Policy" in 2017. It is a policy steeped in strategic ambiguity acknowledging Beijing's position that there's only one sovereign China and Taiwan is part of it. Covert support could be to supply vital arms to Taiwan, encourage Japan and South Korea to take a hostile stance in case PRC invades Taiwan.

4. Peace had zero chance in the 1914 world as powers clashed inevitably. Could it be the same again in these times?

I will not be so pessimistic of the future. Warfare has continually changed since machine guns were introduced in 1884. As nations make progress in MIRV -Multiple Independently-targetable Re-entry Vehicles – warfare enters in new frontiers in space with satellites becoming targets. This will compel nations to come together for evolving common code of conduct to enforce international protocols.

For instance, as global marine traffic increased in the last five decades 32 international protocols have been introduced. Similarly, as international air traffic increased separate protocols for dealing with communication and phraseology, navigation and surveillance, separation standards between aircraft, flight operations, regulatory systems and key documents have been introduced. Though UN has become talk shop, we can expect new conventions like the Geneva Conventions to be evolved as and when obstacles are encountered as new warfare systems take over. This does not mean warfare will become obsolete; they will become short duration, pin pointed to achieve key objectives, though side by side we will have a few wars like those of Gaza and Ukraine wars.

 

 

Trump and understanding the emerging strategic equation: Q & A - 1

Col R Hariharan 

Recently, a scribe raised a few questions after POTUS Donald Trump kidnapped Venezualan President Maduro. They largely pertained to the emerging strategic equatio. My answers to his questions are in two parts. Here is the first part:

Question 1: The current state of international politics is similar to what it was before World War 1. Each big power is claiming its own sphere of influence, The US in the Western Hemisphere, Russia in Eastern Europe, China potentially in Taiwan with several overlaps like in Greenland, Africa, Latin America. 

Before WW-I, it was the European powers' greed for colonies that led to the war when clashes became inevitable. A similar situation is emerging now again even though there are no colonies per se now like then, yet the pursuit of power/national interests is as brutal. Defence pacts then made world war even more inevitable as two states' battles pulled in more. Today there are strategic clubs like the SCO, BRICS, QUAD, NATO in varying sizes. A WW 3 in a multipolar world could be devastating in no time. Archduke Franz Ferdinand's assassination ignited WW 1. A similar trigger today and it's almost the end of the road. 

What do you think about the above observation? 

It was Karl Marx famously said "History repeats itself, first as a tragedy, second as a farce". He atributed it to GWF Hegel, though Hegel had said “the only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history.” I think George Santayana’s statement "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" is more apt to the current confused world situation, after POTUS Donald Trump churned it up with the kidnapping of Venezuela’s President Maduro and prosecuting him in the US, in utter disregard of international norms of conduct of nations. He has ensured American access to the country’s oil resources by promoting a proxy regime there.

To add to global agony, Trump has threatened to take over Greenland and even Canada. His sights right now are on regime change in Iran, dethroning the Ayatollah’s Islamic rule, where popular agitation is gathering momentum due to run away inflation. Trump is threatening to bomb if the Iranian governments use violence against them.

President Trump holds a deeply hostile attitude towards the World Trade Organization (WTO), viewing it as an obstacle to his "America First" trade agenda. He believes it treats the U.S. unfairly. He is poised to slap 500% tariff on India, if it does not stop importing Russian petroleum.

It will be a folly to interpret at Trump’s actions through foreign policy angle only. We should understand his core philosophy. It has three components:

MAGA (Make America Great Again) agenda, transactional realism and populism. MAGA agenda uses “America First” nationalism as its war cry, rejects globalism. It favours a unilateral approach to protect US interests. It adopts Economic Protectionism using tariffs to renegotiate trade deals to protect domestic manufacture. Isolationism is used as a tool to view multilateral alliances like NATO, as an unfair burden on the US. To protect American identity, it focuses on strict immigration controls, treating them purely as a law and order problem.

It is evident Trump uses Transactional Realism in his dealings as explained in his 1987 book ‘The Art of the Deal.’ It involves using business centric logic to governance, viewing political and diplomatic transactions as zero-sum competition. The strategy includes Negotiating from Strength, Flexible Pragmatism based on situations rather than fixed theories, and adopting Machiavellian Calculation focusing on results than traditional moral or accepted norms of behaviour.    

The third component ‘Right Wing Populism’ has its roots in “aggrieved entitlement” as evident from his social media supporters’ writings. Its anti-establishment champions frame their political action as a retribution justice to those affected.

Trump’s style as President uses his authority as though the president has overall control over federal bureaucracy. Legal scholars describe such users as following the Unitary Executive Theory.

His book describes his operational philosophy. It includes thinking big to gain a psychological advantage, using fighting back as a tool when treated unfairly and always using maximum options to avoid struggling with a single approach.  

A few days back, President Trump has ordered the US to withdraw from 66 international organizations, including 31 major UN agencies, in bid to do away with multilateral cooperation. Trump’s executive order directing US departments to end participation in and funding for 31 UN and 35 non-UN organizations "as soon as possible," according to a White House release. These organizations span climate change, conservation, counter-terrorism and human rights, among other fields. India-led International Solar Initiative is one of them. 

In handling Trump, adopting purely diplomatic means are likely to end in failure. Perhaps, familiarising one self with Roger Fishers’ book “Getting to Yes” on business negotiating styles will be wise before dealing with Trump.

 

Sri Lanka at 2025: Bouquets Outnumber Brickbats in AKD’s Perfformance

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives December 2025 | South Asia Security Trends, January 2026 |https://www.security-risks.com  

The year 2025 will be remembered in Sri Lanka for Cyclone Ditwah, which struck the Sri Lanka coast towards the end of November. The heavy rain and landslides during the cyclone presents a grim picture: 644 people losing their lives, 18 injured, while 183 people were missing. The World Bank has estimated initial damage from the disaster at around $4.1 billion.

During the years 2023-24, the nation was preoccupied with recovering from economic bankruptcy and it coloured the political narrative for nearly two years. Recovering from the after-effect of Cyclone Ditwah is likely to dominate the political narrative during the years 2025-26, particularly if the overdue provincial council elections are held.

The year 2025 will also be the year AKD surprised everyone, showing rare maturity and pragmatism in continuing with the debt restructuring largely designed by his predecessor Ranil Wickremesinghe to satisfy the norms of the IMF. So, it was not surprising that the IMF approved $ 206 million Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). Sri Lanka has formally assured the IMF that it will preserve fiscal discipline. UN development partners have promised $ 35 million Humanitarian Priorities Plan (HPP) for nearly 1.2 million victims of Cyclone Ditwah. By December, the government has received $ 20 million of funds, mostly channelled through the UN by its development partners.

 

Most of the disaster relief efforts of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake government were covered in last month’s Sri Lanka Perspectives. India’s massive disaster relief Operation Sagar Bandhu launched in the wake of the cyclone continued during the month of December 2025 too. It culminated with the visit of India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar to Colombo on December 23. During the visit, he announced an assistance package of $ 450 million including $ 100 million as an outright grant. Before the year ended, India has announced a doubling of financial commitment to three housing projects, benefitting over 1550 families in the Northern and Southern Provinces. India’s real time response, as Kishantha Prashantha Cooray in his FT article says was a “substantive reaffirmation of a Sri Lanka–India partnership built on the bedrock of strategic reliability.”

China’s presence during 2025

Not to be outdone by India, China was ready for “disaster diplomacy” with the arrival of a 11-member delegation led by Wang Junzheng, Member of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC and Secretary of the CPC Committee of the Xizang (Tibet) Autonomous Region on December 23. The 11-member delegation met with President Dissanayake to discuss deepening mutual understanding and regional collaboration and visited Galle. A week earlier, the National People's Congress delegation led by Wang Dongming, Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the        NPC, from December 16. Its purpose was to reaffirm commitment to high-quality Belt and Road Initiative cooperation and to enhance exchanges between the legislative bodies of both countries. The delegation met with President Dissanayake and Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya. Similarly, a Guangdong Trade and Industry Delegation visited around November 21. It was led by Zhuang Lecong, Deputy Director General of Industry and IT of Guangdong Province. They held discussions with the Sri Lanka Export Development Board (EDB) to invite Chinese investment and provide more opportunities for Sri Lankan SMEs to participate in international trade fairs in China.

It is to be noted, by  the end of 2025, China's activity in Sri Lanka has shifted from the high-interest loan model of the past toward equity-based investments and strategic stabilization. During his Beijing visit in January 2025, President Dissanayake reaffirmed the "Strategic Cooperative Partnership." In an attempt to balance ties between China and India, he emphasized an "independent non-aligned foreign policy,"

During the year, Sri Lanka lifted its one-year moratorium on foreign research vessels. This has allowed Chinese so-called ‘scientific vessels’ to dock. The spy ships are required to adhere to new "standard operating procedures" (SOPs) to ensure transparency.

In early 2025, Sri Lanka successfully finalized its external debt restructuring. China, as the largest bilateral creditor, participated in "parallel" negotiations, agreed to extend repayment periods and lower interest rate. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) and the People’s Bank of China renewed a major currency swap agreement in January 2025, providing a vital liquidity buffer for Sri Lanka's recovering foreign reserves.

As of 2025, China has surpassed India as Sri Lanka’s largest source of imports, accounting for roughly 23.7% of the country's total import bill. Sri Lankan imports from China were mainly nitrogenous fertilizers, refined petroleum and electronics. Sri Lanka is trying to increase its exports to China, focusing on Ceylon Tea, activated carbon, and seafood. In 2025, Sri Lanka signed new protocols to facilitate the export of more agricultural products to the Chinese market, though no progress towards signing a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement.

During the year 2025, China’s two mega projects in Sri Lanka - the Sinopec refinery and the Port City Special Economic Zone (SEZ) - reached critical operational milestones. The $3.7 Billion Sinopec Refinery project located in Hambantota, is the single largest foreign direct investment (FDI) in Sri Lanka’s history. The project was fast-tracked during the state visit of President Dissanayake in January 2025.

The Sinopec refinery is designed as a greenfield project to process 200,000 barrels per day. The 100 percent Chinese funded venture included an integrated petrochemical complex and a crude oil storage terminal with direct pipeline connectivity to the Hambantota Port operated by China Merchants Port Holdings. Sinopec hopes to locally market up to 40 percent of oil production when the project is completed in three years.

As of 2025, China has surpassed India as Sri Lanka’s largest source of imports, accounting for roughly 23.7% of the country's total import bill. Sri Lankan imports from China were mainly nitrogenous fertilizers, refined petroleum and electronics. Sri Lanka is trying to increase its exports to China, focusing on Ceylon Tea, activated carbon, and seafood. In 2025, Sri Lanka signed new protocols to facilitate the export of more agricultural products to the Chinese market. However, there was no progress in the decade-long negotiations to sign a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement.

So far, so good

The year 2025 has seen surprising positive growth in many sectors of the country. Tourism sector crossed a historic milestone with the arrival of 2,333,797th tourist for 2025,surpassing the record of 2,333,796 visitors set in 2018. This has buoyed SL’s tourism authorities, who have set an ambitious revenue target of US $ 4.5 billion for 2026, aiming to attract 2.7 million visitors. The focus will now be on high-spending demographics and untapped geographical markets.

Marine traffic is another marker of the country's economic health. Total container volumes handled by the Colombo Port rose 7.1% year-on-year (YoY) to 6.92 million 20-foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in the first 10 months of 2025. supported by a strong expansion in domestic container traffic, even as transhipment activity continued to account for the bulk of throughput and remain central to Colombo’s regional hub role. Transhipment container volumes increased 5.1% YoY to 5.52 million TEUs during the Jan–Oct period, up from 5.25 mil TEUs a year earlier.

Sri Lanka Customs’ revenue collection surpassed Rs. 2.49 trillion as on December 26, marking a historic milestone in the Govt’s fiscal performance. Customs exceeded its original annual revenue target of Rs. 2,115 billion in early Nov 2025. The Finance Ministry’s revised target of Rs. 2,231 billion, was also surpassed by 26 December, with total collections reaching Rs. 2,497 billion.

Apparel industry has delivered a healthy growth of 5.42% during the first 11 months of 2025. Its cumulative exports have reached $ 4,571.99 million in the period. 

Brickbats

Ethnic reconciliation: Unfortunately, AKD has not done enough in 2025 on this count. I can dust up my recommendation in 2023 and say the least AKD can do is to implement the recommendations of the LLRC report in full. It requires neither amending or revising the constitution. As I said at the end of 2023, “it will reassure not only the people, but also the international community that Sri Lanka is serious about ethnic reconciliation.” But AKD is unlikely to do it in 2026 as he appears to be a little confused as Rajapaksas might revive the ethnic scare to recoup Sinhala ethnic support during the next  elections.

Crime and punishment:  While the long arm of law still could not find former minister John Fernando, for misuse of a bus, the CID has booked former minister Douglas Devananda, leader of the Eelam Peoples Democratic Party. He is now remanded until January 9, 2026. The CID arrested him after his personal firearm provided by the Sri Lanka Army in 2001 when he was a minister reportedly fell into the hands of members of an organized criminal gang. The pistol was found concealed in a forested area near a culvert in Weliweriya. The CID has also launched an investigation into 19 more firearms issued by the Sri Lanka Army to Devananda.

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Blog site: https://col.hariharan.net  Email: haridirect@gmail.com,] 

Coming to terms with India’s role in Sri Lanka

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives October 2025 | South Asia Security Trends, November 2025 | https://www.security-risks.com  

The highlight of the month of October is Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya’s official visit to India from October 16 to 18.  This was 55 year-old former academic’s first visit to India after she became PM. She is no stranger to India, particularly New Delhi, having studied and graduated from the Hindu College with B.A. degree in Sociology. Mrs Amarasuriya went on to acquire a Master’s degree in Applied Anthropology from Australia and a doctorate in Anthropology from University of Edinburgh.  The visiting PM had just returned from a three-day visit China to attend the Global Leaders' Meeting on Women. During her China visit, she met with the Chinese President Xi Jinping, Chinese Premier Li Qiang and China’s top political advisor Wang Huning. Their talk was generally about joint venture and collaborations between the two countries particularly about the Colombo port city, the Hambantota port and the central expressway. She also lauded the commitment made by Xi to gender equality and women's empowerment globally during the opening ceremony of the Global Leaders' Meeting. Her visit to New Delhi immediately after the visit to China is significant.

Though Dr Amarasuriya was in Delhi to participate in NDTV’s World Summit, it was evident the visit was part of ruling NPP’s efforts to strengthen Sri Lanka’s bonds with India. At her meeting with PM Modi covered a wide spectrum of subjects. In PM Modi’s own words, “Our discussions covered a broad range of areas, including education, women’s empowerment, innovation, development cooperation and the welfare of our fishermen. As close neighbours, our cooperation holds immense importance for the prosperity of our two peoples as well as the shared region.” Dr Amarasuriya, on her part, said, “It was very good. We discussed how we can continue to maintain the good relations that we have established. Prime Minister Modi gave me quite a few ideas about the education reforms that are going on here. We discussed our respective policies.” She did not avoid the sensitive issue of fishermen either; she said, “That is an ongoing issue and something that needs to be discussed. We need to protect the livelihoods of our fishermen as well, but we understand that that’s a sensitive issue and we will continue to talk about it.”

Her visit to NITI Aayog, policy coordination think tank, in New Delhi is of special significance. The visit focused on fostering deeper collaboration between the two countries and sharing insights on India’s transformative initiatives in the sectors of infrastructure, education, tourism, skill development, and artificial. She showed special interest in understanding how NITI Aayog functions alongside central ministries and states—linking analysis, evidence-based policymaking, and feedback from citizens into effective governance. She also shared Sri Lanka’s own reform journey and the need for institutions that promote policy coherence, evidence-based decisions, and consistency beyond political cycles.

The discussions provided an overview of India’s ongoing initiatives such as PM Gati Shakti for multimodal infrastructure planning, the National Education Policy 2020 for holistic and inclusive learning, collaborative opportunities in tourism and cultural exchange, and frontier technologies including artificial intelligence and digital governance. Presentations made on the occasion particularly the Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement (ETCA), PM Gati Shakti, showcasing integrated infrastructure planning and the potential application of India’s multimodal logistics model to Kandy City, Education Reforms under NEP 2020 show future areas of Indo-Sri Lanka projects. While technology-driven learning systems will benefit Sri Lanka’s tourism, Sri Lanka can benefit from collaboration in digital innovation and governance, to enable NPP to deliver systemic improvements. As NITI Aayog said “The visit underscored the shared vision of India and Sri Lanka to deepen strategic partnerships, promote sustainable development, and leverage innovation and skills to address regional challenges and opportunities. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to advancing a knowledge-based, technology-driven, and people-centric partnership under India’s “Neighbourhood First” and ”MAHASAGAR” frameworks.

The extra effort put in by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led NPP government of President AK Dissanayaka (AKD) and PM Amarasuriya to strengthen ties with India is remarkable for its ideological transformation. The core tenets of the JVP's early ideology were outlined in the "Five Lectures" delivered by its founder, Rohana Wijeweera, to its cadres. These lectures covered: an analysis of the local economy and high unemployment rates among youth, critiques of the "old left" parties' failure to achieve a true revolution and anti-imperialist stance (which explicitly included criticism of Indian "expansionism") and the necessity of a sudden, violent armed insurrection to seize power. 

The JVP has historically viewed India as an expansionist power and a threat to Sri Lanka's sovereignty. The party consistently criticized India's involvement in Sri Lanka's internal affairs, fearing a potential loss of independence. The arrival of the Indian Peace-Keeping Force (IPKF) and the signing of the Indo-Sri Lanka Accord in 1987, which aimed to address the Tamil ethnic conflict through devolution of power, was a primary catalyst for the JVP's second and more violent insurrection between 1987 and 1989. Rohana Wijeweera gave specific lectures against "Indian irredentism" as part of the party's core indoctrination. The JVP leadership even framed Tamil demands for self-determination as being aligned with U.S. imperialist interests.

The JVP’s transformation from its India-hating revolutionary Marxist-Leninist philosophy to accept a democratic socialist framework came after the failure of its two violent insurrections (in 1971 and 1987-89). Of course, the ideological transformation was aided by the collapse of the Soviet Union.  Its evolution from insurrection to democratic engagement involved abandoning armed struggle. However, the reframed ideology has retained its leftist orientation by reinterpreting Marxist principles to suit pluralist democracy. It features emphasis on anti-imperialism, social justice and economic equity while abandoning authoritarian socialism.  The JVP’s present Avatar has embraced electoral politics, and rebranded its ideology around anti-corruption, civic empowerment, and inclusive governance. The NPP coalition’s success in the last presidential and parliamentary elections show people have welcomed its focus on grassroot democracy, transparency and participatory governance aligned to democratic norms. So far, JVP MPs parliamentary behaviour has been more constructive.

The Frontline Socialist Party (FSP) which shares ideological roots with JVP maintaining a separate identity, is a not a formal member of the NPP coalition. It considers itself as the inheritors of JVP’s revolution, retaining its anti-Indian stance. It often criticises the NPP government for its pragmatic alliance sacrificing ideology. The FSP has questioned NPP’s recent deals with political actors to help NPP gain control of local councils, branding them as betrayal of anti-establishment principles. An activist of the Party Wasantha Mudalige has recently criticised the NPP government for allowing India to expand investments in the strategic Trincomalee District “at the expense of people” (whatever that means). Recently, when the President visited SLAF Academy in Trincomalee, the FSP activist said the government had “brazenly facilitated high-profile Indian projects, such as the Trincomalee oil tank farm project, launched decades ago. He alleged that the NPP was pursuing an agenda inimical to Sri Lanka, contrary to what the JVP/NPP had been saying over the years. Another FSP spokesman said the government seemed to have adopted a very similar strategy in the Mannar District, where the people have launched protests on controversial wind power projects. None of those NPP lawmakers, from the Northern and Eastern Provinces, spoke on behalf of the people, for obvious reasons as the government was bent on appeasing India, regardless of consequences. The FSP has recently called a press conference in Colombo where the party leader Duminda Nagamuwa questioned India’s motive in implementing housing projects in many parts of the country. He pointed out that there were so many people without proper housing in India, while New Delhi was engaged in mega housing projects here. He was referring to India’s announcement that it will support the construction of 14,000 houses for the Indian-Origin Tamil community in Sri Lanka under Phase IV of the Indian Housing Project. Officially the project was launched at a ceremony on October 12, 2025, attended by Sri Lankan President and Indian High Commissioner to Sri Lanka.  

Unlike the Rajapaksas, AKD seems to have abandoned personality-based leadership style and adopted an inclusive leadership for JVP’s NPP coalition with affiliate wings – NPP Youth and Progressive Women’s Collective. Its core strength o appears to be pragmatic governance, mass appeal and reformist agenda. In pragmatic governance and reformist agenda, India’s learnings and assistance have become indispensable to Sri Lanka; the cultural and historical connections give India a feet up in tackling Chinese competition in Sri Lanka.  Apparently, its form has appealed to the people as NPP accounts for 159 out of 225 parliament members and 266 out of 341 local body members.

However, while managing the coalition, AKD must manage JVP’s lingering residual radicalism visible in its rhetoric, centralized party control and difficulties in managing ideological purity with coalition politics. Otherwise, NPP runs the risk of being marginalised in the cut throat politics of Sri Lanka. As far as relations with India are concerned, AKD’s problem is likely to be in handling the sizeable population of India-baiters present in almost all parties. The Indo-Sri Lanka Accord and 13^th Amendment and Indian poachers fishing in Sri Lankan waters are their rallying point to trigger anti-Indian propaganda.

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Website: https://.col.hariharan@net  Email: haridirect@gmail.com,]