Sri Lanka looks to an eventful 2026

 Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives January 2026 | South Asia Security Trends, February  2026 |https://www.security-risks.com  

Sri Lanka had weathered political, economic and climatic maelstrom in the last three years after the Aragalaya – spontaneous uprising of the people - dethroned the Rajapaksas from power in 2022.  During the last two years President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and his left-leaning National Peoples Power (NPP) government had hopefully come to terms with the harsh reality of governing with systems polluted by unhealed sores of three decades of ethnic conflict. AKD’s government has inherited the systemic aberrations of cronyism, corruption and misgovernance.

Faced with the woes of national economic bankruptcy, AKD has found it is better to “reconcile” than “renegotiate” (as NPP had promised during the run up to the election) the norms set by International Monetary Fund (IMF) for economic revival. His government led by Prime Minister Dr Harini Abeyasekara taking their baby steps at governance could hardly cope with the demands of reforming the ingrained systemic aberrations. This is being exposed every day on simple issues like introducing education reforms, appointing the police chief or advocate general with clean hands, let alone prosecuting political leaders like the Rajapaksas,

As the country marches to celebrate its 78^th Independence Day next month, it will be useful for AKD and his JVP colleagues to ponder over the words of Martin Luther King Jr: “And since we knew that the system will not change the rules, we are going to have to change the system."

During the year 2026, AKD will not be able to embark upon any major systemic changes without drawing up a new constitution. He has promised to abolish the executive presidency which is not possible without systemic changes.  NPP had promised to hold the much-delayed provincial council elections in the first six months of 2026. The NPP is hardly be ready for it as its grassroot support is not as widespread as other national parties.

The NPP cannot retain its new found support in North and East without showing some progress on human rights aberrations inflicted upon Tamils. Justice and National Integration Minister Harshana Nanayakkara has said investigations into more than 11,000 complaints related to missing persons will be completed within the next two years. He has clarified that though additional staff have been recruited and money allocated for their training investigations into only 5,000 complaints are expected to be concluded this year.

It is not going to be easy to abolish or amend the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) as promised as vested interests within the system have misused it. Big-ticket prosecutions are pending of political leaders like Ranil Wickremesinghe and Namal Rajapaksa. They are in the cycle of prosecution. Will they be finished to show NPP holds its election promises true, before going for yet another election?

Changes in Strategic environment in Indian Ocean

The 2025 US National Security Strategy (NSS), released by the Trump administration on December 4, 2025 is likely to serves as a roadmap for the "America First" foreign policy to be followed during the year. The NSS focuses on transactional, sovereign-driven, and interventionist principles. 

The NSS reshuffles the traditional hierarchy of U.S. regional focus. The Western Hemisphere now outranks the Indo‑Pacific as the primary regional focus.

China is no longer described as a long‑term strategic threat but primarily an economic problem. Russia is not portrayed as a dangerously revisionist power but as a state that “maddens Europeans” and with whom the U.S. can reach strategic stability. The document criticizes European governance, political culture, and demographic trends, using terms like “civilizational erasure.”

The 2025 NSS represents a significant break from post‑Cold War US’ strategic thinking. It narrows U.S. global ambitions and rejects the idea that permanent American global dominance and emphasizes a tighter definition of U.S. national interests. The US is likely to reduce its willingness to carry “global burdens” not directly tied to its national interests.

During the year 2026, strategic environment in Indian Ocean is likely to face the after effects of POTUS Trump is creating a huge foreign policy churn-up affecting Indo-Pacific theatre. As a result, a reset in US relations with India, Japan and the European Union is likely during the year.

The NSS introduces flexible realism—a pragmatic approach that prioritizes issues most relevant to U.S. national interest. It moves away from comprehensive, all‑encompassing strategies and allows unilateral action when necessary. This marks a departure from earlier NSS documents that attempted to cover every region and issue.

The NSS has serious geopolitical implications for countries in India and its Indian Ocean neighbours (as a part of Indo Pacific theatre). For instance, in 2017, US considered India a “major defence partner” and counterweight to China. In 2022, in US eyes India became central to Indo‑Pacific, Quad, technical and supply‑chain diversification. In 2025, US considered India still useful as a balancing partner with more U.S transactional ‘bandwidth’.

It implies more room for strategic autonomy for India as there will be less U.S. ideological pressure on democracy or human rights and more space for issue‑based alignment. But if Western Hemisphere and domestic issues dominate, India cannot assume to have sustained U.S. attention in every Indo‑Pacific contingency. We can expect more emphasis on trade, supply chains, critical minerals and less on expansive security guarantees.

Similarly, the NSS speaks of US policy change towards China from systemic rival and challenge (2022) to economic competitor and problem creator (2025). It implies lower ideological Cold War, higher focus on US tariffs, industrial policy and tech controls. Military competition will persist, but with less rhetoric about “democracy vs autocracy.” This provides the US more space for deals with China on trade, fentanyl, limited crisis management if they serve U.S. domestic economic narratives.

India’s strategic response to the “America First 2.0” posture in the NSS may be described as pragmatic multi‑alignment. It aims to deepen cooperation where interests converge, hedge where U.S. retrenchment creates uncertainty and expand autonomous capabilities to avoid being caught in Trump’s transactional approach. Already, India’s relations with China appears to have softened. India has announced PM Narendra Modi will be attending the 14th BRICS summit hosted by China in virtual format on June 23-24, 2026. This includes a High-Level Dialogue on Global Development with guest countries on June 24. We can expect both India and China to explain their multifaceted strategic response to changes in their strategic environment.    

Sri Lanka, a close strategic ally of India with important trading connections with China is likely under stress till the US policy fallout to island nations in Indian Ocean becomes clear during 2026. During the month, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi stopped over in Colombo during which he met the Sri Lanka PM. He did not call upon the President perhaps because he wanted to avoid embarrassing questions on the shake up in the Central Military Commission in China which going on since October 2025. Internal developments that follow in CMC is likely to keep President Xi Jinping busy for a few months in 2026.

Overall, we can expect President Dissanayake to be kept busy during 2026 with both internal and external developments in his strategic environment. AKD will have to keep his ear to the gear wheel if he want to deliver the changes he promised.

Obituary

The month saw the passing of two veteran columnists on Sri Lanka – one Indian and another Sri Lankan. Iqbal Athas, investigative journalist of Sri Lanka passed away on January 13 at the age of 81. He was known for his fearless investigations on defence and political affairs, published in his "Situation Report" column for The Sunday Times. He gained international attention when he exposed major irregularities in the purchase of four second-hand fighter aircraft from Ukraine in 2006.The other - N. Sathiya Moorthy, veteran Indian journalist and policy analyst specializing in Sri Lanka and the Maldives, was my friend. He passed away on January 15, 2026, in Chennai at the age of 71. He was widely respected for his in-depth analysis of South Asian politics, particularly the internal dynamics of Sri Lankan and Maldivian affairs and their implications for India.

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Blog site: https://col.hariharan.net  Email: haridirect@gmail.com,] 

Trump & understanding the emerging strategic equation: Q & A - 2

 Col R Hariharan 

Recently, a scribe raised a few questions after POTUS Donald Trump kidnapped Venezualan President Maduro. They largely pertained to the emerging strategic equatio. My answers are in two parts. The first part is available at https://col.hariharan.net/2026/01/trump-and-understanding-emerging.html.  Here are my answers to the rest of the questions:

 1.    There are no races for colonies today but yet the big powers are carving out their spheres of influence? Is it just a raw display of the realist strategy of IR?

I beg to differ. Despite Trump and MAGA philosophy, multilateralism is here to stay because of a few reasons: WTO has increased the global trade both in width and depth superpower equation has changed. Global South is finding a place in the first four economic powers with the US in the first place with China as an immediate challenger. They are followed by Russia, India, Japan, Germany and UK/France in that order.   

Secondly, warfare has changed in scale both in width and depth. Now hybrid warfare involving inciting the population through propaganda, cyberwarfare, misinformation used to soften target country before waging war. Drones in thousands tie down anti-aircraft systems, while long and short range missiles take on military command and control systems so vital in present day informatized scenario. This has garbled the traditional strategic equation of East and West. Global south are no more bystanders as India and China have made progress in both economic and military power.  These have the alliances between super powers ending clear cut equations. Terrorism at the global level has become an instrument to carry on the indirect warfare against big powers. Collective action at the UN has been rendered into irrelevance with a maverick POTUS cocking the snook at the UN. The very fact BRICS, ASEAN, for that matter even SCO have continued to flourish is a testimony as to collective action is no more superpower monopoly.

To sum up, multilateralism is here to stay as warfare is no more limited to land, air and sea; there are space, cyber and information warfare adding confusion to the battlefield.

Robotics is making an entry into battlefield; command and control systems in battlefields are poised to change when artificial intelligence makes a big entry future.

Trump cannot wish away newer energy sources emerging like ‘green hydrogen.’ Whether US likes it or not, natural phenomenon like global warming and downward in swing in population replacement rate are here to stay. This may mean new alliances and equations between countries

2. There are no alliance systems today. Is the lack of a balance of power a good thing or bad? 

I have not understood as alliances NATO, QUAD, BRICS, SCO etc continue to exist. There is nothing good or bad about balance of power. Alliances are formed to achieve a common objective, often to boost their strength through collective action

The US was never a colonial power and entered the world wars towards the end when it was hit. This time, it is playing a proactive role in triggering a global conflict. Could it hurt its invincibility in some way? Could China also emerge as a similar power today, given its policies and aggression vis-a-vis Taiwan?

3, The US was never a colonial power and entered the world wars towards the end when it was hit. This time, it is playing a proactive role in triggering a global conflict. Could it hurt its invincibility in some way? Could China also emerge as a similar power today, given its policies and aggression vis-a-vis Taiwan?

The U.S. military participated both in World War I and II by deploying over 2 million troops and 16 million troops respectively. They fought alongside Allies in crucial battles in contributing significant naval power (destroyers against U-boats), and providing massive financial, industrial, and material aid (loans, arms, food). It is now the largest naval power (though China might outnumber it in warships). It will continue to support Europea war efforts against common enemy i.e. Russia and Iran.

But US may not overtly support Taiwan invasion by China as it has acknowledged "One China Policy" in 2017. It is a policy steeped in strategic ambiguity acknowledging Beijing's position that there's only one sovereign China and Taiwan is part of it. Covert support could be to supply vital arms to Taiwan, encourage Japan and South Korea to take a hostile stance in case PRC invades Taiwan.

4. Peace had zero chance in the 1914 world as powers clashed inevitably. Could it be the same again in these times?

I will not be so pessimistic of the future. Warfare has continually changed since machine guns were introduced in 1884. As nations make progress in MIRV -Multiple Independently-targetable Re-entry Vehicles – warfare enters in new frontiers in space with satellites becoming targets. This will compel nations to come together for evolving common code of conduct to enforce international protocols.

For instance, as global marine traffic increased in the last five decades 32 international protocols have been introduced. Similarly, as international air traffic increased separate protocols for dealing with communication and phraseology, navigation and surveillance, separation standards between aircraft, flight operations, regulatory systems and key documents have been introduced. Though UN has become talk shop, we can expect new conventions like the Geneva Conventions to be evolved as and when obstacles are encountered as new warfare systems take over. This does not mean warfare will become obsolete; they will become short duration, pin pointed to achieve key objectives, though side by side we will have a few wars like those of Gaza and Ukraine wars.

 

 

Trump and understanding the emerging strategic equation: Q & A - 1

Col R Hariharan 

Recently, a scribe raised a few questions after POTUS Donald Trump kidnapped Venezualan President Maduro. They largely pertained to the emerging strategic equatio. My answers to his questions are in two parts. Here is the first part:

Question 1: The current state of international politics is similar to what it was before World War 1. Each big power is claiming its own sphere of influence, The US in the Western Hemisphere, Russia in Eastern Europe, China potentially in Taiwan with several overlaps like in Greenland, Africa, Latin America. 

Before WW-I, it was the European powers' greed for colonies that led to the war when clashes became inevitable. A similar situation is emerging now again even though there are no colonies per se now like then, yet the pursuit of power/national interests is as brutal. Defence pacts then made world war even more inevitable as two states' battles pulled in more. Today there are strategic clubs like the SCO, BRICS, QUAD, NATO in varying sizes. A WW 3 in a multipolar world could be devastating in no time. Archduke Franz Ferdinand's assassination ignited WW 1. A similar trigger today and it's almost the end of the road. 

What do you think about the above observation? 

It was Karl Marx famously said "History repeats itself, first as a tragedy, second as a farce". He atributed it to GWF Hegel, though Hegel had said “the only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history.” I think George Santayana’s statement "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" is more apt to the current confused world situation, after POTUS Donald Trump churned it up with the kidnapping of Venezuela’s President Maduro and prosecuting him in the US, in utter disregard of international norms of conduct of nations. He has ensured American access to the country’s oil resources by promoting a proxy regime there.

To add to global agony, Trump has threatened to take over Greenland and even Canada. His sights right now are on regime change in Iran, dethroning the Ayatollah’s Islamic rule, where popular agitation is gathering momentum due to run away inflation. Trump is threatening to bomb if the Iranian governments use violence against them.

President Trump holds a deeply hostile attitude towards the World Trade Organization (WTO), viewing it as an obstacle to his "America First" trade agenda. He believes it treats the U.S. unfairly. He is poised to slap 500% tariff on India, if it does not stop importing Russian petroleum.

It will be a folly to interpret at Trump’s actions through foreign policy angle only. We should understand his core philosophy. It has three components:

MAGA (Make America Great Again) agenda, transactional realism and populism. MAGA agenda uses “America First” nationalism as its war cry, rejects globalism. It favours a unilateral approach to protect US interests. It adopts Economic Protectionism using tariffs to renegotiate trade deals to protect domestic manufacture. Isolationism is used as a tool to view multilateral alliances like NATO, as an unfair burden on the US. To protect American identity, it focuses on strict immigration controls, treating them purely as a law and order problem.

It is evident Trump uses Transactional Realism in his dealings as explained in his 1987 book ‘The Art of the Deal.’ It involves using business centric logic to governance, viewing political and diplomatic transactions as zero-sum competition. The strategy includes Negotiating from Strength, Flexible Pragmatism based on situations rather than fixed theories, and adopting Machiavellian Calculation focusing on results than traditional moral or accepted norms of behaviour.    

The third component ‘Right Wing Populism’ has its roots in “aggrieved entitlement” as evident from his social media supporters’ writings. Its anti-establishment champions frame their political action as a retribution justice to those affected.

Trump’s style as President uses his authority as though the president has overall control over federal bureaucracy. Legal scholars describe such users as following the Unitary Executive Theory.

His book describes his operational philosophy. It includes thinking big to gain a psychological advantage, using fighting back as a tool when treated unfairly and always using maximum options to avoid struggling with a single approach.  

A few days back, President Trump has ordered the US to withdraw from 66 international organizations, including 31 major UN agencies, in bid to do away with multilateral cooperation. Trump’s executive order directing US departments to end participation in and funding for 31 UN and 35 non-UN organizations "as soon as possible," according to a White House release. These organizations span climate change, conservation, counter-terrorism and human rights, among other fields. India-led International Solar Initiative is one of them. 

In handling Trump, adopting purely diplomatic means are likely to end in failure. Perhaps, familiarising one self with Roger Fishers’ book “Getting to Yes” on business negotiating styles will be wise before dealing with Trump.

 

Sri Lanka at 2025: Bouquets Outnumber Brickbats in AKD’s Perfformance

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives December 2025 | South Asia Security Trends, January 2026 |https://www.security-risks.com  

The year 2025 will be remembered in Sri Lanka for Cyclone Ditwah, which struck the Sri Lanka coast towards the end of November. The heavy rain and landslides during the cyclone presents a grim picture: 644 people losing their lives, 18 injured, while 183 people were missing. The World Bank has estimated initial damage from the disaster at around $4.1 billion.

During the years 2023-24, the nation was preoccupied with recovering from economic bankruptcy and it coloured the political narrative for nearly two years. Recovering from the after-effect of Cyclone Ditwah is likely to dominate the political narrative during the years 2025-26, particularly if the overdue provincial council elections are held.

The year 2025 will also be the year AKD surprised everyone, showing rare maturity and pragmatism in continuing with the debt restructuring largely designed by his predecessor Ranil Wickremesinghe to satisfy the norms of the IMF. So, it was not surprising that the IMF approved $ 206 million Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). Sri Lanka has formally assured the IMF that it will preserve fiscal discipline. UN development partners have promised $ 35 million Humanitarian Priorities Plan (HPP) for nearly 1.2 million victims of Cyclone Ditwah. By December, the government has received $ 20 million of funds, mostly channelled through the UN by its development partners.

 

Most of the disaster relief efforts of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake government were covered in last month’s Sri Lanka Perspectives. India’s massive disaster relief Operation Sagar Bandhu launched in the wake of the cyclone continued during the month of December 2025 too. It culminated with the visit of India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar to Colombo on December 23. During the visit, he announced an assistance package of $ 450 million including $ 100 million as an outright grant. Before the year ended, India has announced a doubling of financial commitment to three housing projects, benefitting over 1550 families in the Northern and Southern Provinces. India’s real time response, as Kishantha Prashantha Cooray in his FT article says was a “substantive reaffirmation of a Sri Lanka–India partnership built on the bedrock of strategic reliability.”

China’s presence during 2025

Not to be outdone by India, China was ready for “disaster diplomacy” with the arrival of a 11-member delegation led by Wang Junzheng, Member of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC and Secretary of the CPC Committee of the Xizang (Tibet) Autonomous Region on December 23. The 11-member delegation met with President Dissanayake to discuss deepening mutual understanding and regional collaboration and visited Galle. A week earlier, the National People's Congress delegation led by Wang Dongming, Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the        NPC, from December 16. Its purpose was to reaffirm commitment to high-quality Belt and Road Initiative cooperation and to enhance exchanges between the legislative bodies of both countries. The delegation met with President Dissanayake and Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya. Similarly, a Guangdong Trade and Industry Delegation visited around November 21. It was led by Zhuang Lecong, Deputy Director General of Industry and IT of Guangdong Province. They held discussions with the Sri Lanka Export Development Board (EDB) to invite Chinese investment and provide more opportunities for Sri Lankan SMEs to participate in international trade fairs in China.

It is to be noted, by  the end of 2025, China's activity in Sri Lanka has shifted from the high-interest loan model of the past toward equity-based investments and strategic stabilization. During his Beijing visit in January 2025, President Dissanayake reaffirmed the "Strategic Cooperative Partnership." In an attempt to balance ties between China and India, he emphasized an "independent non-aligned foreign policy,"

During the year, Sri Lanka lifted its one-year moratorium on foreign research vessels. This has allowed Chinese so-called ‘scientific vessels’ to dock. The spy ships are required to adhere to new "standard operating procedures" (SOPs) to ensure transparency.

In early 2025, Sri Lanka successfully finalized its external debt restructuring. China, as the largest bilateral creditor, participated in "parallel" negotiations, agreed to extend repayment periods and lower interest rate. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) and the People’s Bank of China renewed a major currency swap agreement in January 2025, providing a vital liquidity buffer for Sri Lanka's recovering foreign reserves.

As of 2025, China has surpassed India as Sri Lanka’s largest source of imports, accounting for roughly 23.7% of the country's total import bill. Sri Lankan imports from China were mainly nitrogenous fertilizers, refined petroleum and electronics. Sri Lanka is trying to increase its exports to China, focusing on Ceylon Tea, activated carbon, and seafood. In 2025, Sri Lanka signed new protocols to facilitate the export of more agricultural products to the Chinese market, though no progress towards signing a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement.

During the year 2025, China’s two mega projects in Sri Lanka - the Sinopec refinery and the Port City Special Economic Zone (SEZ) - reached critical operational milestones. The $3.7 Billion Sinopec Refinery project located in Hambantota, is the single largest foreign direct investment (FDI) in Sri Lanka’s history. The project was fast-tracked during the state visit of President Dissanayake in January 2025.

The Sinopec refinery is designed as a greenfield project to process 200,000 barrels per day. The 100 percent Chinese funded venture included an integrated petrochemical complex and a crude oil storage terminal with direct pipeline connectivity to the Hambantota Port operated by China Merchants Port Holdings. Sinopec hopes to locally market up to 40 percent of oil production when the project is completed in three years.

As of 2025, China has surpassed India as Sri Lanka’s largest source of imports, accounting for roughly 23.7% of the country's total import bill. Sri Lankan imports from China were mainly nitrogenous fertilizers, refined petroleum and electronics. Sri Lanka is trying to increase its exports to China, focusing on Ceylon Tea, activated carbon, and seafood. In 2025, Sri Lanka signed new protocols to facilitate the export of more agricultural products to the Chinese market. However, there was no progress in the decade-long negotiations to sign a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement.

So far, so good

The year 2025 has seen surprising positive growth in many sectors of the country. Tourism sector crossed a historic milestone with the arrival of 2,333,797th tourist for 2025,surpassing the record of 2,333,796 visitors set in 2018. This has buoyed SL’s tourism authorities, who have set an ambitious revenue target of US $ 4.5 billion for 2026, aiming to attract 2.7 million visitors. The focus will now be on high-spending demographics and untapped geographical markets.

Marine traffic is another marker of the country's economic health. Total container volumes handled by the Colombo Port rose 7.1% year-on-year (YoY) to 6.92 million 20-foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in the first 10 months of 2025. supported by a strong expansion in domestic container traffic, even as transhipment activity continued to account for the bulk of throughput and remain central to Colombo’s regional hub role. Transhipment container volumes increased 5.1% YoY to 5.52 million TEUs during the Jan–Oct period, up from 5.25 mil TEUs a year earlier.

Sri Lanka Customs’ revenue collection surpassed Rs. 2.49 trillion as on December 26, marking a historic milestone in the Govt’s fiscal performance. Customs exceeded its original annual revenue target of Rs. 2,115 billion in early Nov 2025. The Finance Ministry’s revised target of Rs. 2,231 billion, was also surpassed by 26 December, with total collections reaching Rs. 2,497 billion.

Apparel industry has delivered a healthy growth of 5.42% during the first 11 months of 2025. Its cumulative exports have reached $ 4,571.99 million in the period. 

Brickbats

Ethnic reconciliation: Unfortunately, AKD has not done enough in 2025 on this count. I can dust up my recommendation in 2023 and say the least AKD can do is to implement the recommendations of the LLRC report in full. It requires neither amending or revising the constitution. As I said at the end of 2023, “it will reassure not only the people, but also the international community that Sri Lanka is serious about ethnic reconciliation.” But AKD is unlikely to do it in 2026 as he appears to be a little confused as Rajapaksas might revive the ethnic scare to recoup Sinhala ethnic support during the next  elections.

Crime and punishment:  While the long arm of law still could not find former minister John Fernando, for misuse of a bus, the CID has booked former minister Douglas Devananda, leader of the Eelam Peoples Democratic Party. He is now remanded until January 9, 2026. The CID arrested him after his personal firearm provided by the Sri Lanka Army in 2001 when he was a minister reportedly fell into the hands of members of an organized criminal gang. The pistol was found concealed in a forested area near a culvert in Weliweriya. The CID has also launched an investigation into 19 more firearms issued by the Sri Lanka Army to Devananda.

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Blog site: https://col.hariharan.net  Email: haridirect@gmail.com,]