Strategic power play in Myanmar

By Col R Hariharan

The US Secretary of State Ms Hilary Clinton’s recent visit to Myanmar, the first ever of its kind in the last five decades, is likely to be a turning point in the estranged relationship between the two countries. And that could bring the US-China power play closer home to Myanmar.

Myanmar President Thein Sein had been taking many positive steps to establish the government’s democratic credentials. And as Ms Clinton’s visit comes after a lot of preparatory work by US representatives, Myanmar had high expectations from the visit. From news reports after her visit, the chances of the two countries resuming normal relations in the near future appear to have become brighter.

Sri Lanka Perspectives: November 2011

By Col  R Hariharan

INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS

Internally, the month of November 2011 saw a politically turbulent period and the country’s economy was facing the heat from the international economic downturn. 

Acquiring of private enterprises

The hurried enactment of the bill “The Revival of Underperforming Enterprises and Underutilized Assets Bill” to take over 37 private enterprises, which the government said were not performing well, created strong reaction from most of the business houses and political parties. The bill had drawn widespread criticism from business, political circles and even Buddhist clergy. Even two partners of the ruling coalition the right wing Jatiya Hela Urumaiah (JHU) and the National Freedom Front (NFF) abstained from voting although the bill was passed with 122 votes in favour and 46 against. 

Combating terrorism: three years after 26/11

By Col. R. Hariharan 

How is India’s war on terror going on three years after 26-11 Mumbai attacks?  Like the proverbial curate’s eggs it is good in parts, while bad otherwise. 

But overall, it would be realistic to call it “limping.” In a nutshell, at the Central level the progress is somewhat better while at the state level it is uneven and tardy. At the operational level halting progress has been made in structural mechanisms and in force levels. Leadership drive and commitment to fight terrorism demonstrated in the U.S. after 9/11 attack is missing here. Even well-thought out plans continue to be hobbled by the deadweight of political priorities and considerations, rather than real time needs of counter terrorism. 

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh speaking at the annual conference of the State police chiefs and Inspectors-General of Police at New Delhi on September 15, 2011 gave an overview of the progress India has so far made in combating terror. He said, "The security environment in the country continues to be uncertain. The recent terrorist attacks in Mumbai and Delhi are grim reminders of the grave challenges posed by terrorism to our national security. Over the last one year, Left wing extremism has also claimed the lives of many innocent persons and police personnel." It is doubtful whether the situation has actually improved since he made the statement. 

Myanmar: Fast forward to democracy

By Col. R. Hariharan 

The decision of the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) to register as a “legitimate” political party may well become a turning point in Myanmar’s history. The NLD under the leadership of Aung San Suu Kyi had been at the vanguard of peoples struggle for democratic reforms during the last two and a half decades. The NLD applied for registration as a political party on November 23 as per the requirements of electoral laws. The 21 NLD signatories of the application included three founders of NLD – Aung San Suu Kyi, former General Tin Oo, and Win Tin. 

The NLD was de-recognized as a political party after it refused to re-register as a political party as required by the electoral laws for 2010 elections. It had boycotted the 2010 elections as it considered both the 2008 Constitution and the electoral laws unjust.  

China's Impact On India-Nepal Relations

By Col R Hariharan

The increasingly loud and belligerent assertion of China’s claims in South China has become a matter of strategic concern for many nations for diverse reasons. It comes at a time when nations with diverse interest in the Southeast Asia from the India to Vietnam to Japan and the U.S. are already concerned about China’s growing strategic strength. Even other nations of the ASEAN group, who do not vocalise their concerns over this development for reasons of real politick, are equally uncomfortable though China is fully established as a trading partner among them.  The recent U.S.-Australian agreement to station U.S. Marines in bases in Australia is directly related to this concern.

For India, it sends clear message of China’s sensitivity to India’s efforts at upgrading its relations in Southeast Asia. Read in the light of escalating strategic collaboration between China and Pakistan including the involvement of PLA troops in the construction of strategic road links in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, and build up of PLA force levels in Tibet with better strategic access to Indian borders, the possibility of Chinese belligerence  shifting to India’s Himalayan frontiers has increased.

Sri Lanka Perspectives: October 2011

By Col R Hariharan

Overview

In the first half of the month, the Sri Lanka scene was dominated by the final phase of the local body elections in which President Rajapaksa’s United People Freedom Alliance (UPFA) coalition scored a massive success underlining his continued popularity.

In the second half, the Commonwealth Heads of State Meeting (CHOGM) held at Perth, Australia came into the limelight as it considered the creation of a Human Rights watchdog for the Commonwealth.  Sri Lanka felt this as targeted move against the country as it continued to be in a state of denial over the alleged war crimes committed by Sri Lanka Army during the last stage of Eelam War. However, the proposal sponsored mainly by Britain, Canada and Australia was not accepted. Similarly Sri Lanka also ran the risk of losing its opportunity to host the CHOGM 2013 when Canada and the UK suggested changing the venue. However, again thanks to the support of Afro-Asian members this was also rejected.    

Myanmar’s chances for ASEAN chairmanship brighten

By Col. R. Hariharan 

Myanmar President Thein Sein must be rejoicing at the visiting Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa’s comment that political reforms in Myanmar looked "irreversible." Reuters quoted the Indonesian Minister as saying, “I wish to believe and I get the sense that they are meant to be irreversible. I did not get any indication that the process will stop.” 

According to the report he said he had urged Myanmar's leaders to release more political prisoners and take greater steps to reconcile with restive ethnic groups. He expected progress in these areas before the country assumes the chair of ASEAN.