Sri Lankan politics: Move over Rajapaksa, it's Sirisena now

Gandhigiri (or is it Buddhagiri) seems to be at work in Sri Lanka in real life!

Col R HARIHARAN @colhari2  POLITICS |  4-minute read |   04-05-2015

Move over Rajapaksa, it’s Sirisena who calls the shots now. That is the message President Maithripala Sirisena has sent to Sri Lanka people and political constituency  by ensuring the 19th Amendment (19A) to the Constitution was passed  in Parliament as promised in the run up to the election.

Three things stand out in his success. He had to outmanoeuvre strong opposition from Rajapaksa-loyalists who at one stage numbered 110 in the 250-member parliament. They belonged to Sirisena's own Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and its tiny coalition partners whose support he would need in the forthcoming parliamentary elections to ensure he is not subsumed by the traditional rivals-turned partners – the United National Party (UNP).

It is a tribute to his political ability that after lengthy parleys with the Loyalists except for 15 diehard supporters of Rajapaksa others voted for the Amendment when it came up. This would indicate his strengths within the SLFP that were not visible to the public when he served as the senior minister under President Rajapaksa. The former President ensured the limelight was always on himself and none else. Sirisena's success now should open up the eyes of doomsday men among the public.

The 19A in its final form does not abolish executive presidency as contemplated by the partners of national alliance which fielded Sirisena to take on Rajapaksa in the presidential elections. But even then the idea lacked clarity. By the time political consensus emerged in parliament, partners of the ruling Sirisena-UNP alliance seemed to have agreed upon taking a middle path: retaining the executive presidency with lesser power and greater accountability to parliament while increasing the powers of the prime minister and parliament.

Sirisena and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe showed a lot of flexibility and pragmatism in the approach of to ensure the 19A enjoyed maximum support in Parliament. This should help them in getting through another tough nut to crack: 20th Amendment (20A) to change the present electoral system where strong differences exist between the two main parties. The new system is a complex mix of both first past the post and modified proportional representation systems. How much the public and will understand its final form is an open question.

As the SLFP is more likely to listen to Sirisena, one thing is clear: now it would not be easy for Rajapaksa to rally the party support in his favour. After all in politics winner takes all. In any case the days of free-wheeling presidency seems to be over as the sweeping powers it enjoyed have been curbed by 19A. 

Yet another impact of the 19A will be on the inquiries into alleged corruption by Rajapaksa brothers – Mahinda, Basil and Gotabaya – who had controlled the reins of power. If the inquires now underway throws up evidence, it would be difficult to delay follow up action not only for Rajapaksas but also the authorities as the 19A has made the right to information a fundamental right.

However, former President Rajapaksa is a street smart politician who would not give up easily. Already a one-to-one meeting between Rajapaksa and Sirisena is being organised. It does not matter at whose initiative it is because both the seasoned stalwarts will try to give and take political favours. But clearly it is Sirisena who holds the aces at least for now. So Mahinda must be ruing his past as Thomas Jefferson did: “No man will bring out of the Presidency the reputation which carries him in.” And that many not be enough as he is likely to face more taxing days.

Lastly, Sri Lanka people have shown a lot of political maturity to see that all these radical changes take place without any thuggery and fisticuffs that used to be common in politics in Rajapaksa days. The message it sends to our people cannot be clearer: if you elect the right persons with a clear agenda, life will be more comfortable for everyone, even for the thugs. Bodhu Bala Sena, Buddhist ultras who used to beat up Muslims and spew venom against other religions, is now thinking of registering as a political party according to the latest news. It seems Gandhigiri (or is it Buddhagiri) seems to be at work in Sri Lanka in real life!

Courtesy: India Today Opinion portal DailyO http://www.dailyo.in/politics/sri-lanka-maithripala-sirisena-mahinda-rajapaksa-slfp-unp/story/1/3529.html

Blog: http://col.hariharan.info/2015/05/sri-lankan-politics-move-over-rajapaksa.html

 

ISIS' Baghdadi dead: What it means for India?

Al-Baghdadi's asserted his leadership by announcing formation of the Caliphate, disregarding the ruling of al Qaeda chief Ayman al Zawahiri.

POLITICS/ | 6-minute read |   03-05-2015

COL  R HARIHARAN  @colhari2

Nearly a week long media speculation about death of the self proclaimed "Caliph" of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) Abu Bakr al Baghdadi seems to have ended with The Guardian confirming that he was alive but incapacitated due to serious spinal injury suffered during a US-led air strike on his vehicle. The attack took place on March 18 near the Syrian border in Western Iraq. It quoted three sources, said to be close to the ISIS, to confirm that al Baghdadi "will never again lead the organisation".

Though initially, the US had said the Iran Radio report was incorrect now they seem to have accepted al Baghdadi's exit from the leadership after more details on his present status came out in the media. So al Baghdadi is now hors de combat in the ISIS' war in Iraq and Syria. And that should be good news not only for the US and its allies but every country because the wide world had become the hunting ground for Islamic youth motivated by the ISIS' success.

It was Abu Bakr al Baghdadi imaginative leadership that turned the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) to look beyond its home turf to morph into the ISIS, the world's most dreaded Jihadi terror group. As King of Jordan said in a CNN interview, the ISIS seems to have appealed to "the depressed, deluded and disillusioned jihadi cadres and Islamic youth" the world over.

The ISIS also provided space for foreign jihadi cadres to articulate their ideas using modern IT tools to effectively propagate its philosophy and activities in their homeland and from Europe to countries as far as Australia. They had originally come to fight the Assad regime in Syria perhaps with the tacit understanding of the West when the Syrian war started. Al Baghdadi managed to turn the tables on the Western strategic planners to prove he has the right mix of leadership, ideology and military strategy.

The ISIS' spectacular success in Syria capturing large tracts of Sunni habited areas in 2014 paved way for the formation of the Islamic state of Iraq and Levant (ISIL). But al Baghdadi's masterstroke was the proclamation of the Islamic caliphate with al Baghdadi as the caliph. The ingenious move gave form to the ephemeral concept of Nizam-e-Mustafa (Rule of Allah) to take ISIS beyond the realm of jihadi terror groups. With the Caliphate came the call for pan Islamic movement for the Rule of Allah that has always had strong appeal to conservative Muslims and clerics everywhere.

Al Baghdadi announced the formation of the Caliphate disregarding the ruling of the all-powerful al Qaeda chief Ayman al Zawahiri to confine ISIS activities to Iraq only, speaks for al Baghdadi's strong faith in his own assertive leadership style. So it is not surprising the ISIS has found support from large sections of Islamic clergy as well as many Jihadi terror groups like the Boko Haram in Nigeria and sections of the Tehrik Taliban Pakistan pledgint their loyalty to the Caliphate.

The ISIS' foreign jihadists with their knowledge of the western idiom and languages has come in handy for the group to grab global media attention after they launched a propaganda blitz using the social media to attract Islamic youth. ISIS visuals of jihadi fighters' gory beheading of "infidel" Western journalists and slaughtering of soldiers with the cadres delivering their messages in flawless English did more than keeping the ISIS in headlines; they appealed to sections of Islamic youth who feel impotent to channelise their rage at the injustice meted out by American air and drone strikes across the Islamic world killing scores of civilians in drone strikes with impunity. For them al Baghdadi probably looked to be the leader they were waiting for to rally their strengths. Al Baghdadi also seems to have provided a rallying point for the motley collection of jihadi groups which were adrift after Osama bin Laden, the charismatic Al Qaeda leader, was killed by American SEALS in Pakistan.

Al Baghdadi's exit from leadership comes at a crucial time when the ISIS is fighting to hold on to its territorial gains in Iraq and Syria. In Iraq the army supported by the Shia militia managed to recapture part of the territory it had lost earlier. The US-led coalition air strikes against the terror group are taking a heavy toll of ISIS. Across the world from the US to Europe to Australia ISIS sympathisers are being hunted out and its cells busted. Even Saudi Arabia is rounding up all ISIS supporters, blocking the vital flow of financial support from the country. On the other hand, the al Qaeda seems to becoming the flavour of the day after its Yemeni counterparts occupied Aden and successfully stemmed the onward march of Houthi Shia rebel militia who had driven out the Yemen government.

According to reports ISIS deputy leader Abu Alaa al Afri is leading the organisation now. Al-Afri is a long term associate of ISIS with strong credentials to assume the leadership; but the moot question is will he be able to lead the organisation at a ctitical time? Under the leadership of al Baghdadi the organisation had exploited windows opportunity offered by the weakness of the enemy to its advantage. Unless al Afri can keep up the momentum generated by al Baghdadi, ISIS cadres may cross over to the al-Nusra Front, their parent affiliate which is very much intact. They also have the option of joining al Qaeda whose fortunes seem to be on the ascent after its strong show in Yemen.

Usually, when terrorist groups are not active internal schism comes to the fore. This is what happened to the LTTE during the ceasefire period in 2002-04 when its eastern wing leader Karuna quit the organisation over leadership issues. Ultimately the damage done to the Tamil Tigers by the split contributed to its defeat in the Eelam War.The ISIS may face a similar fate if al-Afri cannot manage the groups and motivate them.

There is also the issue of the Caliphate; if al Afri fails to make the cut to become the Caliph soon, the second Caliphate may well become the shortest lived one. And that could kill its affinity to conservative sections of Islam vital for its legitimacy. That could make the call 'Caliph is dead; long live the Caliph' yet another grand idea for glory fading into irrelevance.

As far as India is concerned with the recent powerful bomb attacks by ISIS in Jalalabad and al Qaeda operations in Kuduz in Afghanistan, the message is clear. The ISIS here and now in addition to the Taliban knocking on our doors. The worst case scenario is if they form an opportunistic alliance to spread their footprint in India. As Afghan President Ghani said during his recent New Delhi visit, "The shadow of terror haunts our children, women and youth. Terror must be confronted and must be overcome.'' Let us not ignore it.

#Iraq, #Terrorism, #Jihad, #Abu Bakr al Baghdadi

Courtesy: India Today Opinion portal DailyO  http://www.dailyo.in/politics/abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-isis-iraq-united-states-syria-jihadi/story/1/3503.html

Book review: Sri Lanka The New Country

Author: Padma Rao Sundarji

Publisher: Harper-Collins Publishers, Noida, UP

Price: Rs 499; Pages 322

By Col R Hariharan

Seasoned journalist Padma Rao Sundarji’s book Sri Lanka – The new country is refreshingly different from scores of other books that appeared in the wake of the defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) ending their 25-year separatist war in May 2009. She is a self-confessed critic “of the one-size fits all application of Western perceptions, expectations and demands unique to South Asia” a view I heartily share. This probably has given her the strength to look at the Sri Lankan side of the “fence” that had been ignored particularly by Western critics and sections of Sri Lanka Tamil diaspora and polity after the war ended in May 2014.

The author has not allowed her tenuous South Indian lineage (with some Tamil connection also) to cloud her objective of reporting the situation on ground as she saw and understood it. Her years of experience as the South Asia bureau chief of Der Spiegel, the reputed German news magazine, in New Delhi with sufficient exposure to Sri Lanka and its ethnic conflict has enabled her in writing an eminently readable book for the average reader and traveller to the emerald island.   

After giving a brief background to the current Sri Lanka scene, inevitably touching upon the origin and growth of Tamil extremism and separatism, Padma Rao gives vignettes of her visits to Sri Lanka during various periods before and after the War. Absence of the shrill rhetoric we have become so familiar with writings on Sri Lanka is a welcome feature of the book. So is the absence of instant remedies in her reporting.

Padma has almost succeeded in presenting Sri Lanka with “equanimity and open mind” as she claims by not allowing emotion to override common sense in presenting her viewpoint.  But I have one reservation. Padma’s analyses fail to critically examine the Tamil arguments with the same interest she has shown in presenting the Sri Lanka government viewpoint. Perhaps this was intentional as it would have made the reading heavy. But the question why Tamils ‘well integrated in Sri Lanka upper echelons of power’ like Northern Province Chief Minister CV Wigneswaran supporting a united Sri Lanka were not charmed by Mahinda Rajapaksa’s dispensation for Tamils during five years of peace is left unanswered. Rajapaksa’s failure to put through a nuanced strategy in the last five years is as much responsible for this as Tamil politics or LTTE’s overseas remnants’ handiwork has sustained the ethnic confrontation. Rajapaksa’s defeat in the January 2015 presidential election due to massive minority votes against him is a testimony of this. To certain extent this weakness has been rectified in the quick fix addition towards the end, written after presidential election.

In chapter 3, Kilinochi commander Major General Udaya Perera cogently presents the Sri Lankan perspectives on some key issues like allegations of war crimes and human rights violations. But it is to be noted that he had wisely avoided commenting on the alleged killing of surrendering LTTE leadership in the last stages of war (White Flag incident). The cameos on former LTTE women cadres now serving in the army and former LTTE’s international gunrunner KP (chapter 4) and on former Tamil Tiger PR man Daya Master (chapter 7) touch upon how they have come to terms with life after the LTTE’s defeat. Chapter 6 is a unique but a little lengthy exploration of the rare species of Tamil Buddhists in Jaffna before and after the war. The rest of the book presents the beautiful country that Sri Lanka is (if we omit the two political interviews (with Rajapaksa and Wigneswaran) with added human touch.  

The author need not be apologetic (as she had done in the end)  for writing a book on post-war Sri Lanka that focuses on the human aspects of the nation trying to rebuild itself from the embers of nearly three decades of war that cost nearly 200,000 lives. Both Sinhala and Tamil purists who look at the past in the back drop of the past are likely to criticise the book because it does not conform to their analytical pattern. But I have faced years of criticism for telling them to learn from the past to build a new idiom for peace. I am sure Padma Rao as a seasoned reporter has enough resilience to take it in the stride; this is what I do.

Written on March 15, 2015; Published as “Sri Lanka-The New Country” by Padma Rao Sundarji is a Refeshingly Different Book from Scores of Others Appearing After Defeat of LTTE    in www.dbsjeyaraj.com

Sri Lanka perspectives - March 2015

Col R Hariharan

Prime Minister Modi visits Sri Lanka

Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a successful visit Sri Lanka from March 13 to 18, 2015 on the last leg of his visit to three Indian Ocean island nations. During the Sri Lanka visit he addressed Sri Lanka parliament, visited Kandy, flagged off the Mannar-Madhu section of the railway constructed by India, and Jaffna to handover 23,000 houses built with Indian aid for internally displaced persons and addressed the parliament and business leaders in Colombo.

He also met with President Maithripala Sirisena opposition leaders including the leaders of Tamil National Alliance (TNA), Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and briefly met with Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa. He counselled the TNA to rework its political strategy in keeping with the changed environment after the presidential election. He also met with Northern Provincial Council Chief Minister CV Wigneswaran and war widows rendered destitute.

Modi’s objective of Sri Lanka visit was to strengthen mutual ties which he described as resting “on strong pillars of our shared inheritance; of shared values and vision; of mutual support and solidarity; of friendly exchanges and productive cooperation; and above all belief in each and our shared destiny.” In keeping with this objective, he announced a number of initiatives. These include visa on arrival for Sri Lanka tourists, extension of a fresh Line of Credit up to $ 31o million for procuring rolling stock and upgrading railway track, construction of Tagore auditorium in Matara, entering into a currency swap agreement for $1.5 billion to keep Sri Lankan rupee stable.

Except for passing reference he did not emphasise problematic issues like implementation of 13^th Amendment; on the fishermen issue he stressed its humanitarian and livelihood aspects and hoped the meeting of fishermen from both sides would yield results. Overall, Modi appeared to have put the New Delhi-Colombo relationship on better footing than ever before. 

President Sirisena’s visit to China

China had attached importance to President Sirisena’s first visit to China after becoming president. His government is carrying out a review of Chinese-promoted mega projects for corruption and procedural lapses in their finalisation suspected to have benefitted the Rajapaksa family. Sri Lanka prime minister had also accused Former President Rajapaksa of partiality towards China to the detriment of Sri Lanka's cordial relations with India. Chinese interest has been further kindled because Sirisena was visiting China from March 25 to 28, just a week after Modi’s visit to Sri Lanka where India-Sri Lanka strategic issues were probably discussed.

President Sirisena met with President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Keqiang and Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress Zhang Dejiang.

According to official Sri Lanka news site, the two presidents exchanged views on a broad range of issues of mutual interest covering bilateral political relations and economic cooperation including, development cooperation, trade, investment and tourism and cultural cooperation and people-to-people contacts in their bilateral talks on March 26. Sri Lanka President said he shared the interest of China in the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road for greater economic cooperation.

President Sirisena agreed to work towards the successful conclusion of the proposed China-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement (FTA) while recognising the asymmetries between the two economies, towards achieving a more balanced and sustainable bilateral trade and economic cooperation. President Sirisena also participated in the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2015 on March 28 and addressed the conference.

However, Sri Lanka media reported that Sirisena also informed the Chinese President that the suspension of Colombo Port City project was only 'temporarily' and that it would be 'sorted out' soon. He also clarified that the fault lay with the previous Sri Lankan regime which had adopted corrupt practices to grant it approval and not the Chinese. To date this issue does not seem to have been resolved; we can expect the government to continue with the review till the Rajapaksa family connection to corrupt deals are unravelled.

Implementation of 100-day agenda 

President Sirisena- Prime Minister Wickremesinghe duo has taken the following actions to strengthen the national unity government and enact crucial legislations to implement the 100-day agenda: 

·        SLFP becomes stakeholder in government: President Sirisena who is also the chairman of the SLFP main opposition party in parliament, persuaded the Party to join the national unity government by offering 25 cabinet berths. Though it resulted in number of ministers going up from 46 to 79, it has enabled the government to push through important legislations for carrying out structural reforms of executive presidency, electoral system and greater accountability of government.

·        19^th Amendment (19A) to the Constitution: Salient points of 19A tabled by the ruling national unity alliance in parliament on March 25 include doing away with the designation of the President as “Head of Government”, retaining the Prime Minister as head of the cabinet and making the President to act on the advice of the Prime Minister. Future Presidents will not be entitled to ministerial portfolios. However, they will retain the right to summon meetings of the Cabinet of Ministers “for the purpose of discussing any matter of national importance, and shall preside at such meetings”.  

·        Changes in electoral system: The draft enactment proposed by the Election Commissioner for reforming the present system envisages the increase in parliament strength from 225 to 250 members and modification of the system to directly elect 140 members, 80 members by proportional representation and 30 seats to be filled from the national list. The final enactment will be finalised once major parties accept the proposal.

Return of Rajapaksa

After holding rallies in Nugegoda and Kandy, Former President Rajapaksa’s supporters organised a well-attended rally at Ratnapura on March 26 to demand the return of Former President Rajapaksa to power for “saving the country”. As many as 28 SLFP MPs participated in the rally. In a message to the rally, the former president said "We were defeated because international spy services and conspirators were in the forefront," a theme he had stressed in his recent interview with The Hindu.

Ratnapura district is a Rajapaksa-stronghold where he won all the electorates in the presidential election. Rajapaksa’s prominent supporters include  the National Freedom Front leader Wimal Weerawamsa, Western Provincial Council Chief Minister Prasanna Ranatunga, leader of the Democratic Left Front Vasudeva Nanayakkara, and leader of the Pivithuru Hela Urumaya Udaya Gammanpila. 

As the SLFP has officially joined the government, the Party may not officially support the demand for nominating Rajapaksa in the April general election. If it happens, the SLFP is in real danger of breaking up which could politically weaken Sirisena.

Written on March 31, 2015

Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, March 2015 issue; www.security-risks.com