Interview on OROP: 'Even if the PM grants OROP, the trust is fractured'

'Even if the PM grants OROP, the trust is fractured'

Modi has entered blunderland as he does not understand the army. He has actually meddled with the army, which is much more damaging than the ignorance of Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh.'

'People had an impression that the BJP was different. Now it has been made very, very, plain that it is not.'

'Look at the contrast in the behaviour of the prime minister. When they burnt buses in Gujarat for an unjust demand, the prime minister addressed them in Gujarati while the army veterans were on relay hunger strike for the 74th day on that day, but no word on this from the PM.'

Colonel R Hariharan (retd) joined the Indian Army in 1962 when it was fighting a war with China and served the country for 29 years.

Today, he is recognised as a specialist on South Asia military intelligence, having served as the head of intelligence for the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka between 1987 and 1990.

The 79-year-old soldier, below, left, says had he been younger, he would have been in New Delhi with the other ex-servicemen who are fighting the toughest battle in their lives, to force the government to implement the One Rank One Pension scheme.

He spoke to Shobha Warrier/Rediff.com, about OROP and the implications the struggle by the veterans can have on the army and the country.

When previous governments sat on OROP, Narendra Modi during his election campaign and later at many platforms promised to implement it without any delay. What is preventing the government from doing so? What is the technical problem they are talking about?

As an analyst, I will say Modi has got some grey areas. You take the land bill and the goods and services tax bill. He had made very firm commitments. Similarly, he made a commitment on OROP also.

He makes political obligations without analysing the financial implications. He thinks everything can be sorted by inter-state politics or intra-party politics, but that might work at the state government level. That is why he has blundered.

You call it a blunder?

Yes. He has entered blunderland as he does not understand the army. He has actually meddled with the army, which is much more damaging than all the ignorance of Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh, and the indifference of A K Antony to the real issues of the army.

OROP is not about successive governments making promises. There was a Parliament resolution and two Supreme Court judgments. And it was Indira Gandhi who promised OROP in 1973.

She 'rewarded' the army for winning the 1971 war by reducing their pension. The pension that was 70 per cent of the last pay was reduced to 50 per cent of the last pay while the civilian pension was increased from 30 per cent to 50 per cent.

Why did the army remain silent then?

Exactly. I find fault with all the chiefs since then. They did not put their feet down. That was because we didn't have a (Field Marshal S H F J 'Sam') Manekshaw anymore. Very few successive chiefs have shown the courage or conviction to challenge this. I know this as I was serving the army then.

I don't blame the bureaucrats; I only find fault with the chiefs.

In India, it is a very funny situation. The army is accountable for national security, but bureaucrats are in charge of security. The defence secretary is in charge of national security whereas the army has to deliver.

So responsibility is with somebody and accountability is with somebody else.

The previous defence minister (A K Antony) was grossly incompetent. He did not want to take up any controversial issues. His sole aim was to have a lily-white reputation though the maximum corruption was in the same regime.

So I have no hesitation in saying, politically, national security has never been on the agenda of any of the national parties except as a club to beat other political parties.

People had an impression that the Bharatiya Janata Party was different. Now it has been made very, very, plain that it is not.

The BJP had the support of all the army veterans, all the ex-servicemen....

That was because Modi made the promise that he would implement OROP. (Former army chief) General V K Singh joined the BJP along with Colonel Rajwardhan Singh Rathore because of this. They were able to muster the support of the veteran community mainly in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.

It played well for the BJP and they knew that the army veterans were not going to negotiate. They have no trade union; in fact, it is forbidden for the army men to form a union. They are not going to form a union after serving the army for 30, 35 years.

Look at the contrast in the behaviour of the prime minister. When they burnt buses in Gujarat for an unjust demand, the prime minister addressed them in Gujarati while the army veterans were on relay hunger strike for the 74th day on that day, but no word on this from the PM.

That is why Major General Satbir Singh, who is leading the agitation from the front, asked, 'Why didn't he (the prime minister) come and explain to us the problems he faces, on August 14?'

Do you feel he is ignoring the ex-servicemen?

Many times they were promised that he would give them an interview, but nothing of that sort has happened so far. He has become even rarer than Manmohan Singh. I feel he is insecure in discussing the issue because he doesn't understand it. All the negotiations were done by the bureaucrats.

The defence minister had been sympathetic and the ministry had worked out a package in consultation with the financial advisor. That was in February. They are talking about technicalities now.

What do you think are the technical difficulties that they are raising now?

The simple technicality is that they do not want to accept the simple definition of OROP that has been accepted by Parliament. They want to change it.

The finance minister has discovered suddenly that the railways and the paramilitary forces also can raise similar demands. This is absolute nonsense because they don't retire like us; they retire after full service.

Army men retire early as they want to keep the army young. It is the case not only in India, but the world over.

That is why in the West, the pension has been fixed between 70 to 73 per cent of the last pay.

The pay commission blundered as the army was never represented properly. We don't directly go to them; it goes through the ministry of defence. It has come to a stage, the army is unable to control its own weapons

Now, even if the PM grants the whole thing, I am sorry to say the trust is fractured.

You take the case of my family, there are many officers in my family. In Vellore in Tamil Nadu itself, there are 60,000 ex-servicemen. You can imagine how it will be in a state like Punjab.

Do you think this will have an impact on the serving army too?

That is why the former chiefs met the defence minister and told him that this will affect the army and they will not trust any civil administration or any pay commission. They will have a problem with every pay commission.

Will it affect morale in the army?

It will not affect the morale of the army because the soldier is fighting for his life. But every army man will think twice, 'If I die, what will happen to my family? Will my wife get proper pension?' That is what will happen and this will have an impact.

Hereafter, nobody will believe any promises. The Congress had failed and now, the BJP also has failed.

Take the case of Tamil Nadu where there are so many ex-servicemen. I am very disappointed that the Tamil Nadu government wants to take up the case of Sri Lankans, but not our own ex-servicemen.

This shows the lopsided attitude of the political parties. They are going to pay a heavy price for this.

Even now, there is a huge shortage of men in the defence services. Will this dissuade young men from joining the services?

This will have a huge impact. The army had made many suggestions and they were all rejected. It had said that the army men were retiring early and they should be absorbed in paramilitary. This was rejected by the home ministry saying there would be seniority problems.

I don't know why they can't have a separate battalion with a separate cadre with ex-servicemen to carry out the job the CRPF (Central Reserve Police Force) is doing.

I can imagine, tomorrow if there is a war, the Intelligence Bureau will be spying on the army!

That is why I say Modi has blundered.

Do you think Modi is unaware of the consequences or he is simply playing politics?

I don't blame him as Modi has got different pulls within the party. He has to establish himself in the party. His party has stalwarts who will not be happy with his success. Because of the pressure, he is in a hurry to show results.

See, he has promised Rs 125,000 crore (Rs 1.25 trillion) for Bihar. Non-Performing Assets of Rs 56,000 crore (Rs 560 billion) are written off. You can find money for these things, but not for the army.

When I see the selective approach, I cannot but draw the conclusion that they very well know the veterans will never stop buses and burn them.

Is it not a sad state of affairs that those who guard the country have to resort to a fast unto death to make the powers that be, to listen to them?

Does anybody care?

My point is, the army itself did not recognise it as a major issue. The army has been following whatever the defence secretary was saying.

In 2013, General V K Singh (then the army chief) pointed out the deficiencies in the army in a letter to the prime minister after he had put it across to the defence minister. It was not done secretly.

Somebody leaked the letter and blamed it on V K Singh. And all the Opposition parties joined with the Congress and flogged him. And nobody talked about the deficiencies. Till date, nobody has asked what happened to those deficiencies.

Have you ever seen anyone discuss any defence matter in Parliament? Our country never had any strategic security culture.

Had Parliament functioned, would they have discussed OROP? Had Rahul Gandhi instead of making a noise, allowed Parliament to function and raised this issue, I would have had some respect for him. I have no respect for any politician.

Sorry if I sound cynical. India will soon realise that it cannot have a cynical army.

I resigned my job and joined the army in 1962 to fight for the country. Today, who is joining the army? Those who cannot get a government job because you have to pay bribes to get the job. And we have to motivate these guys. Still, they function in a disciplined way.

Why is it that only the army premises are clean when the rest of the country is dirty?

The situation is such that there is no support system for the jawans today. If a widow has to fight 12 years to get her pension...

The war veterans are fasting for their dues. And if you have a cynical army too, in what way will this affect the country?

You yourself can answer the question as good as I am. I am a much older guy and you are going to live to face it.

There is an umbilical connection in the army and we are like a family. If something affects the grandfather, it will affect the grandson too. He has to be concerned.

Now, the government is planning to celebrate the 50th year of the 1965 war...

Celebration for whom? The dead ones? What kind of celebration are you talking about when the living ones are not respected? You exclude all the war veterans and celebrate?

I also took part in the 1965 war. When the man who got two Vir Chakras, one in 1965 and another in 1971, says he would have participated in the celebrations if the government had announced something, you can understand the sentiments of all the veterans.

Do you feel General V K Singh and Colonel Rathore should resign from the Modi ministry?

There are people who believe that they can do some counselling within, but many feel they should have resigned. I am sure they are better judges, but I am surprised that they have behaved exactly like Modi. Apparently they have taken the stance of following party discipline.

I don't know how I would have behaved if I were in that position. They are all good people. I feel even now, it is not too late. They can still resign. At least they can wear black bands.

Do you think more veterans will join the agitation?

Yes, and it will go out of control. Had Modi announced whatever offer he had on August 15, it would have carried some credibility. It would even have divided the movement. I am not questioning Modi's intentions. We do not know why he has not kept his promise.

But they (the ex-servicemen) put forward a lot of options in front of the government, like paying the disabled war widows first, then the widows and the army officers last. They were even ready for valid government bonds. But the government doesn't want to respond.

Courtesy: www.rediff.com September 4, 2015

http://www.rediff.com/news/interview/even-if-the-pm-grants-orop-the-trust-is-fractured/20150904.htm

Sri Lanka security perspectives: August 2015

Col R Hariharan                                                              

Sirisena-Wickremesinghe duo retain power

The powerful political duo of President Maithripala Sirisena and incumbent Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe defeated former president Mahinda Rajapaksa for a second time in six months thwarting his bid to stage a comeback to power with the United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA  in the parliamentary election held on August 17. The UPFA  lost by 3.8 percent margin to the Wickremesinghe-led United National Front for Good Gorvernance (UNFGG).

In Sri Lanka, 196 members of the 225-member parliament are elected through proportional representation system from 22 electoral districts, in proportion to the votes secured by the party. The balance of 29 “National List” seats is allotted to parties in proportion to the votes they secure in the whole country.

A little over 77 percent of voters participated in one of the most peacefully conducted elections in recent times. The UNFGG secured 106 seats with a vote score of 45.66 percent while the UPFA could capture only 95 seats as it polled only 42.38 percent. The Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK)-led Tamil National Alliance (TNA) increased its parliamentary strength by two seats to win a total of 16 seats. Similarly, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) increased its tally by two seats to send six members to the parliament. The Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and the Eelam Peoples Democratic Party (EPDP) won one seat each.

The UNFGG fell seven seats short of 113 seats required for a majority in parliament. However, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP)  chaired by President Sirisena signed memorandum of understanding with the United National Party (UNP) agreeing to join a national government for a period of two years. After this, Ranil Wickremesinghe was sworn in as Prime Minister on August 21, 2015.

This has created an anomalous situation on the role of UPFA as opposition,  while participating in the government! Some of the SLFP and UPFA parliament members, opposed the move to join the government, met President Sirisena to request him to be allowed to function as parliamentary opposition and allow the UPFA to elect their own leader in parliament.  Sirisena agreed to both the requests. Despite this, some of the UPFA leaders like Udaya Gammanpilla, leader of a breakaway faction of the Buddhist right wing Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU), Vasudeva Nanayakkara, leader of the Democratic Left Front, and Wimal Weerawansa, leader of the National Freedom Front are said to be considering the formation of new alliance with a separate name identity rather than continuing as partners of UPFA.

The UPFA’s fractured status, which commanded two-thirds majority in parliament before the parliament election, is a testimony to the political skill of President Sirisena in ensuring the UPFA does not go under the control of Rajapaksa.  As corruption and misuse of office cases against Rajapaksa brothers Basil and Gotabaya are likely to be pursued with vigour, the former president is unlikely to be allowed political space to rally anti- Sirisena elements within the SLFP and the UPFA in the near term.

Tamil autonomy issue

Prime Minister Wickremesinghe in a detailed interview to The Hindu has indicated his hope to complete the process of producing a new constitution based on the consensus of all political parties within six months. He has also indicated his readiness to grant maximum powers to Tamils within the ambit of the 13^th Amendment to the Constitution.

However, as the TNA is seeking a federal status for the provinces it is unlikely to be satisfied unless land and police powers which have been withheld so far are given to the provincial councils.

Sirisena’s unfinished agenda

Peoples’ rejection of Rajapaksa bid to come back to power through the parliamentary election indicates their affirmation of President Sirisena’s January 8 reform agenda.

Apart from the Tamil issue there are a few complex issues inherited from the previous government which would be engaging the government. These include the taming the bloated Sri Lanka economy, follow-up action on corruption investigations against members of the Rajapaksa regime, bringing to book those responsible for white van abductions and disappearances and the handling the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) resolution.

The UNHRC resolution on Sri Lanka’s accountability for alleged war crimes and human rights excesses during the last Eelam War would be discussed when it meets next month. Both India and the U.S. are likely to extend all the support to the the Sirisena government at the international forum as it is responding more positively than the Rajapaksa government ever did. India had always supported a domestic inquiry in preference to an international one envisaged in the UNHRC resolution. India can be expected to maintain the same while actively supporting Sri Lanka.

According to the Sri Lanka foreign ministry spokesperson when the UNHRC meets, it would consider the report of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OCHR) on Sri Lanka and bring forth a resolution on it. The U.S. has already informed the UNHRC that it would offer a resolution on Sri Lanka to follow up the new Sri Lanka government’s efforts to promote post war reconciliation and accountability and on the OCHR resolution. So we can expect the international inquiry to be shelved in favour of a domestic inquiry by the Sri Lanka government. This is likely strengthen the standing of the Sirisena government both at home and abroad.

Miscellaneous

Tamil Nadu’s political response to the Sri Lanka general elections has been tepid perhaps due to preoccupation with the reported move of Chief Minister Ms Jayalalithaa to advance the state assembly elections. Moreover, the failure of Rajapaksa who had been the target of local politicians further downgraded their interest in Sri Lanka.  However, the octogenarian DMK leader M Karunanidhi not to be outdone condemned the U.S. decision to bring a resolution at the UNHRC supporting Sri Lanka’s domestic enquiry into the war crimes allegation. As expected, the perennial Sri Lanka baiters Vaiko and Dr Ramdas pitched upon the issue of India gifting a coast guard ship to Sri Lanka navy to condemn New Delhi. As opposition parties are in disarray, we can expect Sri Lanka to again figure in the campaigning during the run up to the elections in Tamil Nadu for what it is worth.

Written on August 31, 2015

(Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served with the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka as Head of Intelligence. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail: colhari@yahoo.com   Blog: http://col.hariharan.info)

Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, September 20015 Volume 9 No 9                                  www.security-risks.com   

Comments on India's gift of a ship to Sri Lanka Navy

Col R Hariharan

[This article includes comments made in an interview to a TV news channel on the subject on August 31, 2015.]

India has handed over a Coast Guard ship to Sri Lanka Navy as a gift. Tamil Nadu political leaders have strongly condemned it because Sri Lanka Navy had used such “gifts” from India to attack our fishermen and destroy the Sea Tiger boats during the Eelam War. MDMK leader Vaiko has described it as a ‘betrayal’ of Eelam Tamils and Tamil Nadu fishermen. What are your views on this?

India’s Sri Lanka policy is not solely guided by what happened in the Eelam War or the fishermen issue. Indian government is responsible for national security and it has to ensure the country’s foreign policy is tailored to serve our strategic interests. So we should view New Delhi’s gift of a coast guard vessel in this broader context than from the perspective of one or two issues only. 

Tamil Nadu political leaders have long used both the fishermen issue as well as the Tamil separatist struggle to strengthen their political constituencies in the state. So it is not surprising that they have strongly criticized gifting away the Indian Coast Guard vessel Varaha to Sri Lanka Navy on August 27.

In any case, the Eelam War is over and the Tamil Tigers have been eliminated in Sri Lanka. However, Sri Lanka fears the possibility of LTTE’s revival as remnants of the LTTE are still active abroad.   Sri Lanka Navy is responsible to ensure such elements do not clandestinely enter into the country. So it will continue to patrol Sri Lankan waters to check any suspicious movement of boats.

The Tamil Nadu fishermen issue is a complex one because it is connected not only with the traditional fishing rights of our fishermen, but also to the sanctity of international maritime boundary as well as territorial claims. So it will continue to linger unless the two countries make up their mind to resolve the issue once and for all. As the issue has become politically complicated in both countries, we cannot expect its closure in the near future.

Ever since China entered Sri Lanka in a big way India’s maritime security concerns have increased. Chinese naval ships are increasingly sighted in our ocean vicinity. China has financed and completed the Hambantota port project and the expansion of Colombo carrier terminal. Last year, India had strongly objected to the berthing of Chinese warships, including two submarines, in Colombo port. Sri Lanka seems to have understood India’s security concerns as it is a major user of Colombo port facility.

Ever since Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Sri Lanka – the first visit by an Indian prime minister in 12 years – the two nations have come closer. The Sirisena government has responded positively to India’s security concerns about Chinese warships; this is evident from a PTI report on April 15, 2015 from Beijing. It quoted Zhao Gancheng, director of South Asia Studies at Shanghai Institute of International Studies as saying “the Gwadar port [in Pakistan] will also guarantee China’s naval ships’ maintenance and supply in the Indian Ocean. The move is widely seen as crucial for China, especially as it is unlikely that Sri Lanka will open its ports to Chinese naval ships.”

India, Maldives and Sri Lanka have a maritime coordination agreement under which Indian navy has been protecting the extended economic zone (EEZ) of the three countries. So India’s gift of a ship to the Sri Lanka navy should be viewed in the overall context of strengthening its maritime security which is in the interest of India’s own national security. This becomes even more important now that China’s naval presence Indian Ocean is going to increase in the years to come.

China is also helping to augment Pakistan’s naval capability by selling eight submarines and a few warships. Pakistan has in the past used Colombo to operate intelligence sources to spy on India; sometime back a Sri Lankan employed by the Pak ISI was arrested in Chennai after a bomb explosion. Pakistan and China have a strategic security agreement now apart from very close economic bonds.

So there are many dimensions to India-Sri Lanka defence cooperation.  We can expect greater defence cooperation between India and Sri Lanka, particularly between the navies, in the coming years. It would not be in our national interest to adopt a negative attitude to fostering good relations with Sri Lanka.

Lastly, at the risk of repeating myself, I would request Tamil Nadu political leaders to understand the dynamics of change in Sri Lanka after the defeat of the LTTE and the exit of Mahinda Rajapaksa from power. It was Sri Lanka Tamils who helped President Maithripala Sirisena come to power by overwhelmingly voting for him. The Tamil National Alliance is at the forefront of looking after Tamil interests.

However, Sri Lanka Tamils particularly in northern and eastern provinces have not yet fully recovered from the aftermath of the devastating war. Tamil Nadu can help them immensely by assisting in increasing their employment and livelihood opportunities. This would make more meaningful contribution to them, than Tamil Nadu political leaders’ flowery, but negative, rhetoric on Sri Lanka.

[Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served with the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka as Head of Intelligence. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail: colhari@yahoo.com   Blog: http://col.hariharan.info]  

Courtesy: Chennai Centre for China Studies C3S Paper No 0168/2015 dated September 1, 2015  http://www.c3sindia.org/strategicissues/5222

Takeaways from Sri Lanka general election

Col R Hariharan 

After the din of recently concluded general election in Sri Lanka is over, the United National Party leader Ranil Wickremesinghe has been sworn in as Sri Lanka’s prime minister. He is poised to work with a national unity government. There are eight takeaways from the election and its aftermath that can help in visualising the future course of events in the island nation.

1.     Positive trends: A number of positive trends have emerged both in the conduct and in the aftermath of elections. People have shown that whipping up of Sinhala nationalist rhetoric or holding up the bogey of revival of Tamil separatism is not enough to win elections. They would rather prefer clean governance than ostentatious of display of power by the rulers. The peaceful conduct of elections holds a lesson for other South Asian nations: if the national leadership is determined it can ensure the government, administration and election commission come together, without working at cross purposes, to conduct peaceful elections. The abhorrent trend of local politicians waving pistols and intimidating the public that had invaded the body politics in recent times. The election has shown they will have to change their act.

2.    Rajapaksa’s fault lines: The electoral defeat of the former president for a second time within six months showed that he had not understood the dynamics of change that had become embedded in public discourse to win elections. Comparatively, Sirisena despite his low profile and soft rhetoric had done better. Of course, Rajapaksa will continue to be respected as a national hero for eliminating the Tamil Tigers. Yes; Southern Sinhala Buddhist constituency will probably continue to vote for him. No; that will not be sufficient to win an election without an inclusive agenda. And the bogey of revival of terrorism of the LTTE kind probably carries only limited credibility.  The failure of Rajapaksa come to power showed the limitations of banking upon personality cult. But that is not enough to recoup credibility in public life; integrity in action is equally important. His reputation appears to have been badly bruised by allegations of corruption, misuse of office, family politics and cronyism. So Rajapaksa has to clean up his act rather than depending upon his cronies’ advice if he does not want to fade away from political limelight.  And keep the family at arm’s length; they have already done enough damage to him.

3.    Sirisena’s strengths: President Sirisena has demonstrated that he was unfazed by political obstacles in the run up to the election. Probably other Rajapaksa and other SLFP leaders had underestimated his courage of conviction to pursue his end goals with doggedness and push aside political obstacles.  Though he was not strong within the party to prevent Rajapaksa hijacking the SLFP and the UPFA alliance, Sirisna showed enough mettle to express his determination to prevent Rajapaksa coming back to power. Probably this created enough confusion among the leaders who jumped to the Rajapaksa camp to carry out damage control.  Sirisena dissolved the Central Committee which was working against his interests as party leader at the first opportunity without the usual political palaver. If he can build upon his credibility, chances for the durability of the national unity government are bright.  And that is necessary to fulfill the promises he made to get the January 8^th mandate from the people.

4.    Ranil’s tough task table: The smooth-talking prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has a tough task ahead. From his interview to The Hindu, he appears to be aware of it. Completion of the structural change process to improve integrity of national institutions; improve accountability of the government and administration to the people; complete corruption investigations and bring the culprits to book; refine the election process; resume the political process with Tamil leadership to bring it to a logical conclusion;  and last, but not least, build national consensus to produce a constitution to embed the changes made. This a tall order for any political leader to fulfill. Ranil had failed to take the peace process 2002 to a satisfactory conclusion; and President Kumaratunga and Prabhakaran were there to share the blame. But he has none now. Can he succeed? He appears to be clear that the UNP and SLFP have to come together to fulfill his tasks. Though President Sirisena is with him, will SLFP stop sharpening their axes and rise up to the occasion to help the prime minister?  Even the famous court astrologers would not dare to answer this question; so it’s wait-and-watch time now. 

5.    Muslim polity: The election has shown that the Muslim voter is no more the meek follower of their leaders.  They cannot take the peoples support for granted any more. That means in future the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and the All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC) will think twice before going along with Rajapaksa. Rajapaksa’s failure to attend to the concerns of Muslim community during anti-Muslim violence by fringe elements has cost him dearly in both the elections he faced. It could haunt him for some time despite all his skill at political maneuvering.  

6.    Tamils want positive action: The Tamil voter wants action-oriented approach than an emotional approach to improve his lot now. He is getting tired of empty rhetoric glorifying Tamils, notwithstanding the indelible and grime memories of the LTTE armed struggle for separate Eelam. The moderates within the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) leadership had excluded former LTTE cadres in their electoral discourse. But they cannot ignore their genuine grievances highlighted by their independent group, in any political dialogue with the Wickremesinghe government.  To sum up, TNA should work on an action plan to immediately improve the quality of life  of the war-affected population still living on the fringe as well as take up development work without any delay. For this they need to adopt a nuanced approach than solely depending upon resumption of political dialogue process. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has indicated that his willingness to rework the federal format within the ambit of 13^th constitutional amendment. Though this may not meet Tamil aspirations fully, Tamils should use this opportunity  to work with him rather than against him lest they miss the opportunity when the constitution is recast. In a nut shell, Tamil leaders will have to be pragmatic rather than dogmatic in their approach.

7.    No corruption: Rajapaksa’s failure showed people are probably not going to forget the allegations of massive corruption against him soon. This would come as a surprise for many because corruption is an endemic problem in Sri Lanka, just as it is in India or any other South Asian country. So political leaders of all hues will have to clean up their style of backroom politics. Such an environment would enable President Sirisena to introduce checks to root out not only corruption in public life and government but also break up the politico-bureaucrat-business nexus that had been the bane of Sri Lanka. 

8.  Time for positive action from Tamil Nadu: The defeat of Rajpaksa has deprived Tamil Nadu politicians and TV anchors of their favourite whipping horse. The soft profile of Sirisena, and lack of fireworks in Sri Lanka politics now and conciliatory noises at the UNHRC have pushed Sri Lanka from mainstream political discourse in Tamil Nadu. The success of Sirisena-Wickremesinghe combine in the parliamentary election has further downscaled Sri Lanka from visual media’s TRP quest. Time has come for the ruling AIADMK to get away from political rhetoric and to  produce a broader positive action agenda to benefit Sri Lankan Tamils. They could expand upon the positive vibes created in the wake of Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Jaffna to benefit Tamils trying to pick up their normal life. As a first step AIADMK should interact not only with Sri Lankan Tamil leaders but also the people to understand their pressing needs.  Tamil Nadu has the resources to undertake this; what is needed is the will. Some of the areas that come to mind are increasing job opportunities for widows and youth by investing in new enterprises and opening up educational institutions in Tamil Nadu. Such positive action could reinforce the AIADMK’s political strength particularly at a time when opposition parties are in total disarray and state elections are in the horizon.

[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia, served as the head of intelligence with the Indian Peace Keeping Force (1987-90). He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-mail for feedback: haridirect@gmail.com Blog: http://col.hariharan.info]

Courtesy: Centre for Asia Studies CAS article No 0003/215 http://www.caschennai.org/?p=47   

https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/takeaways-from-sri-lanka-general-election/

Rajapaksa’s loss spells victory for democracy in Sri Lanka

The former president will have to sit in the Opposition benches in the same parliament where his writ ran challenged.

COLONEL R HARIHARAN  @colhari2 |POLITICS| 5-minute read| 18-8-2015

Former president Mahinda Rajapaksa’s hopes of coming back to power as Sri Lanka’s prime minister crashed when the. United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA), which fielded him as a candidate, lost out narrowly to the United National Party (UNP)-led coalition in the parliamentary election held on August 17.

 In the most peacefully conducted election in Sri Lanka in recent times where over 70 per cent of the people are said to have voted, the UPFA could win only eight of the 22 electoral districts as against its rival UNP’s victory in 11 districts. The Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK)-led Tamil National Alliance (TNA) won in three predominantly Tamil districts of Jaffna, Vanni and Batticaloa South.  It would support UNP-led government rather than that of UPFA.

In Sri Lanka’s electoral system, out of the 225 parliament members, 196 members are elected through proportional representation system from 22 electoral districts. Each party is allocated a number of seats from the quota assigned to the district in proportion to votes secured by the party. The balance of 29 seats known as national list are allotted to parties according to the country-wide proportional votes they obtain in the election.

Rajapaksa conceded defeat in the morning of August 18 even before results were officially announced. He told the AFP news agency "My dream of becoming prime minister has faded away…I am conceding. We have lost a good fight." Though a message from his twitter account later contradicted this, he must have seen the writing on the wall early in the day.

As Wickremesinghe described, the presidential election was in a way a referendum. Over 15 million voters of Sri Lanka had to decide whether they wanted Rajapaksa’s return to politics after a decade in power. Once hailed as Sri Lanka strongman, Rajapaksa must be a disappointed man to be rejected once again by the people in his bid for national leadership within a year after he lost the presidential election in January 2015. He had high hopes of coming back to power as prime minister after the powers of executive presidency were cut down to size by President Maithripala Sirisena. Rajapaksa also had to overcome the efforts of Sirisena as chairman of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), to prevent him from contesting as a UPFA candidate.

Though neither the UPFA nor UNP-led alliance is likely to have a majority in parliament, Ranil Wickremesinghe, victorious leader of the UNP having larger number of seats, is expected to be sworn in once again as prime minister. President Sirisena is likely to pick his loyalists within the SLFP to join the national alliance government led by Wickremesinghe. Thus both Sirisena and Wickremesinghe will be able to follow up in action to fulfill their agenda for structural and constitutional reforms and pull up the sagging economy.

Rajapaksa’s failure  is a political triumph for Sirisena, particularly after senior members of the SLFP central committee challenged his leadership and tried their best to bring back Rajapaksa to the detriment of Sirisena loyalists. Sirisena sent a strong message of his authority  and sacked 13 senior members of the central committee including the all important secretaries of UPFA and SLFP and appointed his own nominees soon after polling ended on August 17.

But Sirisena’s action could be challenged when the Supreme Court reopens on August 31 from vacation. According to a former chief justice, as per the party constitution only the secretary of the party has to nominate the national list members. On the other hand court action may well be deferred as some of those affected appear to be making friendly noises to get back into good books of Sirisena.

Rajapaksa as a successful member of the UPFA will have to sit in the opposition benches in the same parliament where his writ ran unchallenged when he was president. If he is chosen as a leader of the opposition by UPFA members, he will be presiding over an anomalous situation when some of the members join the cabinet. Would he do it? 

Out of power and after two successive failures, Rajapaksa’s political influence has been slashed.  But his support base among the conservative Buddhist nationalist southern Sinhalas appears to be largely intact. Will he bounce back into politics? Apart from Rajapaksa, two other people – Sirisena and Wickremesinghe – also are probably pondering over this question   

In addition to former president Rajapaksa, his brother Chamal Rajapaka and son Namal Rajapaksa have also won. This would ensure an element of protection for the three Rajapaksas as they cannot be arrested when the parliament is in session. This becomes important in the investigations into cases of corruption and misuse of office now underway. 

But this will spell trouble for Rajapaksas. Mahinda is facing cases of corruption in handling of public funds and his brother and former minister Basil is tangled in another similar case in the law courts. These cases are likely to move on a fast pace. But we can expect both Sirisena and Wickremesinghe to tread carefully lest they antagonize Sinhala nationalist segment by vindictive action.

As far as India is concerned the news of Wickremesinghe combine’s victory would be welcome though even had Rajapaksa come to power he would have handled India with kid gloves. As far as China is concerned, probably it would rue the failure of Rajapaksa as a lesson learnt, and court the new leadership to get its stalled projects through and get back to business.  Nothing moves Chinese like money and President Xi Jinping like 21st Century Maritime Road. Sri Lanka is important for China on both counts.

#Mahinda Rajapaksa, #Sri Lanka Elections

[Col R Hariharan, a retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia, was head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force (1987-90). He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Studies. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com Website: http://col.hariharan.info ]

Courtey: India Today Opinion portal DailyO   http://www.dailyo.in/politics/maithripala-sirisena-mahinda-rajapaksha-upfa-unp-sri-lanka-elections/story/1/5736.html

Three ifs and four buts about Sri Lanka election

In the past Rajapaksa has proved to be a past master in ‘under the table’ deals.

COLONEL  R HARIHARAN  @colhari2  |POLITICS | 3-Minute read |17-8-2015

Forecasting elections is hazardous in Sri Lanka. And the general election held on Monday makes the job even more difficult. The three seasoned political stalwarts - former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, president Maithriala Sirisena his foe within the United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) and Ranil Wickremesinghe leading the United National Front for Good Governance (UNFGG) - are jockeying for power. 

Though poll forecasts had predicted Ranil's coalition having an edge over Rajapaksa's UPFA, at least twice in the past they were proved wrong. Rajapaksa won the presidential poll in 2009 and lost it in 2014, belying the predictions. The question of both the UPFA and UNFGG coalitions ending up without a majority in the 225-seat in the parliament looms large now. Much depends upon Rajapaksa regaining public credibility for his coalition to win.

A number of  ifs and buts, however, make the post election environment hazy . 

The three “ifs” 

1.   If the UPFA gets a majority in parliament, pressure on Sirisena would increase to nominate Rajapaksa as prime minister. He may not able to prevent it if his constituency within the coalition loses out.

2.  Even if the UNFGG gets a marginal majority of the seats, Wickremesinghe has said he would form a national alliance government of all parties. This could tempt winners from the UPFA to join the government as they did earlier. 

3.  Sri Lanka has no anti-defection law. So if neither coalition wins a majority, whoever can do political horse trading better can count on forming the government. In the past, Rajapaksa has proved to be a past master in such “under the table” deals.

The four “buts”

1.   Both Rajapaksa-loyalists and Sirisena-loyalists of the UPFA are working to undermine each other’s candidates. This is likely to reduce the coalition's winning chances. This could, moreover, give a free run to Wickremesinghe's coalition particularly with his added attraction of national government. 

2.  Last presidential election showed that massive turnout of minority voters could decide the winner. But parliamentary election in the 22 electoral districts that elect 195 members is different from presidential poll; there are number of local issues which come into play in this election. How many of them would be drawn to the polling booths now? The electoral system has also been modified for this election. Both Wickremesinghe and the minority parties appear to be aware of this and have been focusing on national issues. But how much it will excite the minority voters to exercise their franchise?

3.  Rajapaksa has been plugging Sinhala 'nationalism' in his campaign. He was defeated in 2009 despite flogging the nationalist credentials because allegations of corruption and misuse of power had clouded his image. Has he regained the credibility of  Sinhala voters who had generally supported him? More importantly, would the swing voters prefer his reincarnation as prime minister?

4.  The Tamil  National Alliance (TNA) has always managed to win most of the seats in the northern and eastern parts of the country. However, it always had internal differences regarding the struggle for preserving the Tamil identity. With the exit of the Tamil Tigers (LTTE), the goal of the Tamils recovering from the post-war trauma is to survive rather than pursue the quest for a Tamil Eelam. The TNA had not been able to deliver its election promises in the past due to both Colombo's inaction and its own inability to articulate a common agenda. TNA's internal differences have now become deeper; how much it would affect its performance?  Wickremesinghe has said that he supported a federal solution for Tamil issue which is one of the articles of faith of TNA. But the moot question is how much TNA can push it through even if it wins most of the seats? In the past it failed because it had not developed the fine art of political opportunism. In a parliament without either coalition winning a majority, can it change its style of politics?

By Tuesday afternoon the picture will clear on who is winning and who is losing. And the great game of horse trading may well begin after that.

Courtesy: India Today Opinion portal DailyO            http://www.dailyo.in/politics/sri-lanka-elections-mahinda-rajapaksa-maithripala-sirisena-ranil-wickremesinghe/story/1/5711.html

China and Rajapaksa’s bid to return to power in Sri Lanka

Col R Hariharan

[This is an extract of a brief interview with an Indian TV news channel recorded on August 13, 2015  on China and Sri Lanka general elections being held on August 17, 20015.]

Q: China is looking at the entry of Rajapaksa in the (election) race with a lot of interest. Since January when Sirisena took over, despite polite noises, China has lost out its position of strength (gained) under Rajapaksa. So do you think China would definitely root for Rajapaksa as PM?  

A: Generally, China does not interfere in internal affairs in other countries. That would apply to Sri Lanka elections also. But it has a huge financial and strategic stakes in Sri Lanka.  So definitely China would be happy to see Rajapaksa back in power as PM because it has an excellent personal equation with him. Apart from this, China’s major projects in Sri Lanka, in which it has invested over $ 4.6 billion, have been stalled after the new government came to power. Though some of the projects are now being resumed, there had been no progress in some others like the Colombo Port reclamation project costing $ 1.4 billion. This project has strategic relevance for China as it would help China gain total control of over 300 acres of reclaimed land close to the mouth of the Colombo harbour.  China would definitely like these projects completed without any further delay.

Q: In case Rajapaksa returns to power, what possible impact it would be having on Indo-Sri Lanka relations, given Rajapaksa’s tilt towards  China?

A: Though Rajapaksa would probably like to adopt a pro-China policy, he is well known for his pragmatism. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Sri Lanka has paid a lot of dividend. India's concerns have now been brought to the fore. 

And we can see their impact in his UPFA coalition’s manifesto. In the words of Dr Dayan Jayatilleka, foreign policy advisor of UPFA, “specific mention has been made about India in the foreign policy segment of the UPFA manifesto. Good relations with India is axiomatic. Good relations with India will be a corner stone of the UPFA foreign policy.” 

Moreover, Rajapaksa knows that after the recent constitutional amendment, the freewheeling days of executive presidency are over, and the prime minister is more accountable to the parliament now. So he would probably take these aspects into consideration.  But first, he has to win the election.    

       

Q: If Rajapaksa does not make it, is it the end of his political career?

A: No. I don’t think so. Rajapaksa is a political veteran who has loyal followers in Sri Lanka and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). So if he fails it would be a major political setback; but not curtains for him. What must be worrying for him are the two cases of misappropriation of public money including employees provident fund which has been filed against him the court for legal action. Equally damaging to his reputation could be the Tajudeen murder case which was hushed up during his regime; Rajapaksa’s son Namal Rajapaksa's name has figured in the case. That must be worrying him because they would affect his public credibility.

(Col. R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the South Asia Analysis Group and the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E- mail: haridirect@gmail.com Blog: www.col.hariharan.info)

Courtesy: Chennai Centre for China Studies C3S Paper No 0155/2015 dated August 13, 2015  http://www.c3sindia.org/srilanka/5166