Col R Hariharan |December 31, 2020| South Asia Security Trends | January 2021 www.security-risk.com
The year 2020 will go down as a
tumultuous and inglorious year in Sri Lanka’s history. It was a bleak year on
many fronts, after huge public expectations were kindled by President Gotabaya
Rajapaksa’s election 2019. No doubt, the
global Covid-19 pandemic contributed to the President’s woes. Its disastrous
effect on the already debt-laden economy, brought three major sources of income
and employment - tourism, maritime trade and expatriate income – to almost a
standstill.
President
Rajapaksa is known as a hands-on leader, who works with clear goals and a
structured approach to problem solving. So, he managed the Covid threat
with reasonable success, kept the economy afloat, with some patch-up credit
from big powers. He spoke of stimulus package for economic revival and using
technology tools to improve governance while explaining his vision in his
address to the parliament. He restructured the national security apparatus.
As a good military strategist,
the first time politician-turned-president, reinforced his power base by
successfully holding the general election, in the midst of the pandemic. He
cashed on the feeling of insecurity of Therawada Buddhist Sinhala majority, which
zoomed after home-grown Jihadi terrorists’ suicide attack on the Easter Sunday
in April 2019, killing 259 people. In
the process, his Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) gained two thirds majority
support in the parliament, decimating the badly split main opposition - United
National Party (UNP). He minced no words
to proclaim a unified Sri Lanka was for the Buddhist majority, who voted him to
office, where Tamils and Muslims can live amicably. The die was cast to create
him as a modern day Duttagemunu, set to restore the majoritarian pride and
ensure a safe and secure country for the Buddhists.
President Rajapaksa used his
political strength to regain the powers the executive presidency by pushing
through the 19th amendment to the Constitution. Within two months in office, he ensured the
three Rajapaksa brothers, between them, controlled the ministries of defence,
public security, finance, economy and policy development, Buddhasasana and
cultural and religious affairs, urban development, water supply and residential
facilities. His lack of trust in political leaders came out loud and clear, with
creation of a super cabinet of sorts, packed with trusted military veterans and
expert bureaucrats to oversee the government ministries performance.
The President halted the investigative
agencies, like the CID and the Financial Crimes Investigation Division (FCID),
which were investigating a number of criminal cases involving the Rajapaksas
and military intelligence and naval personnel. Senior officers of these
agencies actively working on these cases were hounded out. His Special
Presidential Commission (SPC) constituted to probe those responsible for
falsely implicating people has recently submitted its report.
It is clear that under President Rajapaksa’s dispensation, we
have a highly centralised government, with strong military overtones, run on
Sinhala Buddhist religious and cultural ethos. Only the President’s writ runs
and the rule of law has become a dictated one. This has proclaimed death knell
for minority political aspirations for an equitable society. They fear even the
few measures taken by the earlier governments to meet some of their aspirations
are likely to be undone. The delay in holding provincial council (PC)
elections, periodic threat to repeal 13th amendment that created the
PC, repeated calls for changing the electoral system, delay in drafting a new
constitution and the witch hunting of Muslims by fringe elements in
administration and ruling parties are a few examples justifying minority fears.
The latest in this series is the administration’s callous refusal to allow
burial of Covid victims from Muslim community, as required by Islam, on
specious health grounds.
The leaders of the badly mauled
opposition parties, including Tamil and Muslim minority leaders, are equally
guilty for this state of affairs. They should stop looking over the shoulder
for external powers, to bail them out of their inability resolve their
problems. They are neither united internally, nor networked externally, to
evolve a game plan to provide an alternative agenda for the people.
President Rajapaksa continues
to enjoy unmatched popularity and majority support in parliament. With total
control of the government machinery in his hands, he had a great opportunity in
2020 to embark upon resolving long standing national issues stymieing the
growth and development. These included ethnic reconciliation, restructuring
democratic governance, removing human rights aberrations and restoring rule of
law. Unfortunately, he spent the year in
strengthening his position and pandering to those, who politically supported
him. He needs to recast his agenda on a broader national format.
Otherwise, President Rajapaksa
is likely to spend 2021 in trying to manage the fall out of his flawed
priorities. In the increasingly networked world, these issues are inextricably
woven in Sri Lanka’s in external relations, as much as in internal relations.
We can expect Sri Lanka to come under immense pressure in managing the
strategic security polemics in the Indo-Pacific region, as China is expected
increase its aggressive economic and military muscle flexing, during 2021. This
is likely to further constrict President Rajapaksa’s space to do tight rope
walking to further Sri Lanka’s national priorities.
His agenda should be to build a
national consensus for a positive action plan for the year. It should include
ethnic reconciliation, restructuring democratic governance, removing human
rights aberrations and restoring rule of law. These issues are required to be
resolved, because he appears to be the only leader capable to doing it at
present. This casts a leadership burden on him, not to satisfy is any external
power, but to be known as the true achiever, beyond winning wars. Will he? The coming year only can tell.
[Col R Hariharan, a retire MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism,
served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri
Lanka 1987-90. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com web: https://col.hariharan.info ]
