Some thoughts on Channel-4 video on Easter Sunday attacks

Col R Hariharan                         l 

The British TV Channel recently beamed a video alleging a conspiracy to facilitate the election of Gotabaya Rajapaksa as President was behind the local radical Islamic terrorist attacks carried out in Sri Lanka on Easter Sunday, April 21, 2019. The Channel 4 video has stirred up a lot of controversy in the restive nation whose people had driven out the Rajapaksa clan in a spontaneous “Aragalaya” uprising 18 months back. 

The Easter Sunday attacks were carried out by terrorists belonging to the National Thauheeth Jama’ath (NTJ), a local outfit owing allegiance to the ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria). Six of them targeted three churches and three luxury hotels, killing 269 people and injuring over 500 others. At least 45 foreigners were also killed. Police investigations afterwards revealed the involvement of nine people in the attacks. 

People were shocked to learn that Indian intelligence had warned Sri Lanka Intelligence Service (SIS) of the impending attacks on Easter Sunday ten days in advance. Despite this, the government failed to act upon it. The SIS passed on the information to President Maithripala Sirisena, without informing Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and Inspector General of Police. After the attacks, a parliamentary select committee (PSC) deliberated on the subject. Apart from this, law enforcement agencies investigated the terrorist trail and a smaller presidential inquiry was formed to look at systemic failure and individual accountability for the failure.

Both lines of investigation unravelled socio-political aberrations that encouraged, if not condoned, the evolution of NTJ as a hate spouting radical Islamic outfit and its transformation into an ISIS clone. It has also revealed the strong influence of radical Thauheeth ideology between Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka on the one hand and the role of IS sympathisers in India and other countries in transforming NTJ into an active IS-inspired outfit.

It is in this backdrop the following questions are answered.

Q1. Some accuse the government of not being serious about solving the Easter Sunday Attacks amidst new allegations that the Rajapaksas are involved in it, and this new committee is just a ruse, what are your thoughts? 

Firstly, Sri Lanka is suffering from a credibility gap between the government and the people for a long time now. In recent times, it started when Mahinda Rajapaksa allowed triumphalism to overtake good sense after the defeat of the Tamil Tigers in 2009. He brought the three arms of good governance – the executive, judiciary and the legislature – under the family control. The executive president became all powerful after tinkering with the constitution; intelligence agencies called the shots and the rule of law was given the go by.

The totally disenchanted-public denied the President Mahinda Rajapaksa a third term and opted for rule by the unnatural coalition government of President Sirisena and PM Wickremesinghe. They proved no better, as they prioritised the protection of their turf rather than delivering good governance. No inquiry ordered in their time - whether it was into the Rajapaksas “illegal wealth abroad” or criminal misuse of office – was ever completed. The public was shocked when they learnt that no action was taken by Sri Lanka government though its intelligence service had received a warning ten days earlier from Indian intelligence of the impending Jihadi terrorist attack on Easter Sunday from Indian intelligence. The successful attacks were a logical sequence of the schism between President Sirisena and PM Wickremesinghe. Both of them were responsible for it, though President Sirisena who had received the information on the impending attack was more irresponsible than the PM.

The terrorist attacks were carried out when the presidential poll was around the corner. Government’s failure pushed the electorate to vote for Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the ‘Terminator’ who “vanquished” Prabhakaran and his ilk. But Gotabaya’s rule to establish Buddha Sashana under the Rajapaksa family dispensation, rather than delivering good governance, was a disaster. All the criminal cases involving military personnel were withdrawn reinforcing the feeling of impunity of law enforcement agencies. The Covid pandemic, mindless taxation policies and disastrous agriculture policies exposed his inept understanding and handling of national crises. As a result, the national economy was in doldrums. As already stated, the Aragalaya upsurge of the people sent the Rajapaksas scurrying to safety both at home and abroad. Public credibility in political parties and the government perhaps reached the bottom when economic woes plunged the nation into bankruptcy.

President Wickremesinghe is in office as a stop gap arrangement till the at the pleasure of Rajapaksas as their Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) and a motley collection of MPs including some from the opposition, who are not ready for a parliamentary poll. The President is busy salvaging the nation from economic disaster with the help of the IMF and friendly countries. There is increasing clamour for holding the much-delayed provincial council elections, as well as the parliamentary elections as the present parliament has lost public credibility.

There will be lot of takers for the Channel 4 video alleging the Easter Sunday attacks was a conspiracy hatched for Gotabaya Rajapaksa to gain votes in the presidential poll, as he has lost political credibility.  The allegations are a mix of facts and fiction vocalised by backroom Sinhala, Tamil and Muslim political operators with possible access to Gotabaya Rajapaksa. As a follow up, President Wickremesinghe has appointed a presidential commission and a parliamentary select committee, just as President Sirisena did after the Easter Sunday attack took place. The closure of the findings of that Commission is still on the cards.

It has become the characteristic of successive governmentso in Colomb to appoint a parliamentary select committee and a presidential commission on any controversial national issue. After a few contrarian opinions aired in the media, the issue is wished away from public domain. As Sir Humphrey Appleby of Yes Minister fame says “it is always a victory of the heartless over the mindless.”

Q2. Do you think international involvement is required to ensure the investigation is fully transparent and the true culprits are brought to justice if this Easter Attacks was part of a sinister plan to bring the Rajapaksas to power?

After the Easter Sunday attacks the Scotland Yard, the FBI etc were approached as part of the investigation. What role they played in the investigation is still not clear. It is not enough if culprits are identified but must be brought to book. This requires not only systemic changes, but also political masters following the essential norms of good governance.

In this environment, it is not surprising that the government has not opted for international involvement. If they had done so, it will set a precedence for international participation into investigations into Sri Lanka’s human rights violations during the Eelam war demanded by the UN Human Rights Commission.

The Ministry of Defence has already come out in defence of intelligence agencies; this is perhaps a signal on how the investigation is likely to end. There is not much hope about the parliamentary select committee either; after all everyone involved in the “conspiracy” belong to the same political class as the PSC members.

Most of the members’ political value lies in purveying secrets. I can’t help quoting Sir Appleby again: “He would keep a secret must keep it a secret that hath a secret to keep.”

In any case, most of the public probably consider it as part of the drama politicians like to enact. I don’t think the public have huge expectations of anything better.

Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com  Website: https://col.hariharan.info]    

 

Sri Lanka: Caught between a rock and a hard place

 Col R Hariharan | Sri Lanka Perspectives August 2023 | South Asia Security Trends September 2023 | www.security-risks.com

 

President Ranil Wickremesinghe is caught between a rock and a hard place, both externally and internally. Externally, t[he Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is getting turbulent with the big power confrontation between the US and its allies on the one hand, and China on the other. It threatens to spill over beyond Asia-Pacific. The sparring between the two global powers is turning bitter every day around Taiwan and accidental triggering of skirmish cannot be ruled out.

The four-nation ‘Quad’ - quadrilateral framework of India-the US-Japan-Australia, apparently a non-military alliance, is gaining relevance. It is ushering in close cooperation in manufacturing, logistics and political issues, that will strengthen their military posture. The AUKUS – Australia-US – military alliance is poised to introduce the nuclear triad in the Indo-Pacific theatre. The most unlikely trilateral alliance of the US-Japan- South Korea has come into being; it is unabashedly against China and its protégé North Korea, flaunting their military strength in their vicinity.

Chinese economy is five times larger, with a GDP of $17.7 trillion versus India’s GDP of $3.5 trillion China’s economy that went down in the wake of President Xi Jinping’s mishandling of the lock downs during the Covid pandemic disrupting the supply chains is yet to recover. The economic fall out of the Ukraine war has made it worse. The Chinese Yuan has fallen to its lowest level in 16 years.

On the other hand, India’s economy is growing at 6.5 percent. Under these circumstances, China’s first option will be to expand its trade in South Asia, particularly with India despite its soured relations. Their two-way trade has grown to a whopping $130 billion in 2022. China’s second priority will be to resuscitate President Xi’s prestigious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects that have become a drag on the Chinese economy, particularly in Sri Lanka and Pakistan. By September 2023, BRI will be celebrating its tenth anniversary and we can expect a slew of Chinese initiatives to ensure the success of ailing BRI projects. 

India, the dominant regional power, is poised to strengthen its all-round relations with the US, particularly after President Joe Baiden visits New Delhi in September to attend the G20 summit meet.

The latest 19^th round of talks between Indian and Chinese military commanders in Eastern Ladakh over China’s border transgressions has achieved little progress. China’s speedy construction of military infrastructure in the area shows the border problem is in for a long haul. China’s latest cartographic aggression by publishing maps showing Indian territory of Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh as Chinese territory only confirms this.

After the Galwan clash in May 2020, India has shown it is determined not to allow China a free run in its neighbourhood, particularly in Sri Lanka and Maldives. India’s overtures to help Sri Lanka recover from bankruptcy, have been reciprocated and the relations between the two are closer than ever before.

China will be factoring these developments in analysing President Wickremesinghe’s bid to deepen strategic relations with India to strengthen Sri Lanka’s economy. China probably understands  President Wickremesinghe cannot wish away the helping hand extended by India when Sri Lanka is in dire straits. President Mahinda Rajapaksa, during his tenure, unsuccessfully tried to do so with little success. Besides, President Wickremesinghe needs India’s continued assistance for economic recovery, particularly after China has not helped it to conform to IMF conditions.

During President Wickremesinghe’s two-day visit to New Delhi last month. India and Sri Lanka agreed upon an economic partnership vision to speed up Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. The vision document’s title “Promoting Connectivity, Catalysing Prosperity: India-Sri Lanka Economic Partnership Vision” contains the key elements of the partnership. The plan is to strengthen the maritime, air, energy and people-to-people connectivity between the two countries. They have signed six energy agreements, including an oil pipeline from India to Sri Lanka, electricity grid connectivity and cooperation on renewable energy.

India’s decision to allow the use of Indian rupee for trade settlement between the two countries and allowing the use of UPI based digital payment system is likely to boost trade and tourism. Already there are signs of progress in tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka and we can expect it to grow exponentially when ferry services and air connectivity are beefed up.

With South India becoming an industrial and IT hub, a multipurpose infrastructure link with Sri Lanka would bring a sea change in economic growth of the island nation. With Tamil Nadu becoming the heartland of automobile industry and IT manufacture, such a link would particularly benefit the Northern and Eastern provinces.

A land bridge connecting India and Sri Lanka across the Palk Strait is one of the ideas mooted in the wake of the joint vision statement. Actually, it is not a new idea; it was proposed in 2004 by the then PM Ranil Wickremesinghe. He sought India’s help to build the “Hanuman Bridge”. The proposal for a 23 km long Palk Strait Bridge met with intense opposition in Sri Lanka. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Ms Jayalalithaa was also opposed to the idea on security considerations.

According to Indian Express, in 2015, India’s transport minister Nitin Gadkari proposed to build the ‘Hanuman bridge’. The bridge was proposed to be built with the aid of the Asian Development Bank as a part of the trans Asian road network. However, it was shot down by Sri Lanka’s minister for highways Lakshman Kiriella. He said “We are against it because people of Sri Lanka are opposed to it. We cannot let India build a bridge.” As Sri Lanka had joined the BRI just then, apparently Sri Lanka did not want to upset China  

It will not be easy for the President to politically sell the idea of a land bridge with India, particularly when his tenure depends upon the support of Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) with its strong Sinhala nationalist moorings. The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and its cohorts would jump at the proposal and use anti-India rhetoric to rally the people for yet another Aragalaya movement to “topple” the President. It is surprising that even a non- political personality like Colombo Archbishop Malcom Cardinal Ranjith has recently opposed the land bridge proposal from the pulpit. 

And of course, China carefully watching India’s moves in Sri Lanka will not be amused; it will muscle-in both overtly and covertly to discourage the President from considering the land bridge project. Already, China is smarting under Sri Lanka discarding a few sanctioned proposals of Chinese companies and opting for India to execute them. China specializes in ‘grey zone warfare’. We can expect in the coming months Sri Lanka becoming the target of China’s propaganda blitz using overt and covert means to discourage, if not disrupt, closer Sri Lanka-India relations. Overall, the President is in an unviable hot seat, likely to get hotter. 

Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com  Website: https://col.hariharan.info]    

 

Chandrayan-3: Looking beyond the successful mission Q & A

Col R Hariharan

Here are my answers to media questions on the successful lunar mission Chandrayan-3..

Q How do you see India’s successful lunar mission to the South Pole of the moon and its impact beyond the moon mission?

India's successful landing of Chandrayan-3 on the South Pole points to many other aspects of than India's scientific and technical capabilities. These less visible aspects are –

A.   Political leadership: PM Modi's full support to ISRO during the last 9 years has energized ISRO to go the extra mile. The moral of the story is political leadership commitment is essential for scientific and technological progress in 3rd world democratic countries

 

B.   Cost effectiveness of the whole project has proved that space programs can be successfully carried out without eating into other development programs.

C.  The ISRO team had only 2 percent of IIT graduates breaks the myth that elite education is essential for tech achievements.

D.  Hard work of a host of specialised MSMEs who had supplied thousands of parts required for the project has been acknowledged by the ISRO chief. This shows that India can successfully embark upon projects requiring precision engineering research and technology i.e. aircraft and tank engine manufacture and hypersonic weapons research.

Q: Post Chandrayaan-3, does India emerge as a major leader of south Asia and in its war game with China and countries such as Pakistan begin to see it with more respect? How much significance does India's lunar mission success hold in this part of the world?

Good questions! 

Of course, Chandrayan-3 success, is likely to make China re-look at India's research and technical effort in Atmanirbhar projects relating to military weapons and procurement efforts with the serious it deserves. 

I expect this to impact China to carefully re-assess India's strategic moves in South Asia and in Indian Ocean Region to regain its influence. The elections in Bangladesh and Maldives are likely see some stoking of anti-India lobbies using Chinese money.

As far as Pakistan is concerned, China is probably alarmed at increasing US influence particularly in Pak army. And in tandem with India's clear message on Eastern Ladakh border at the 19^th round of talks it had recently, China is likely to go soft on India till Pakistan settles down.

India-Sri Lanka economic partnership and ethnic reconciliation

Col R Hariharan | Sri Lanka Perspectives July 2023 | South Asia Security Trends August 2023 | www.security-risks.com

 

President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s July 20-21 visit to New Delhi ended with India and Sri Lanka jointly evolving an economic partnership vision   to speed up Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs released the India-Sri Lanka Economic Partnership Vision document on July 21, 2023 after the visiting President met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The document titled “Promoting Connectivity, Catalysing Prosperity: India-Sri Lanka Economic Partnership Vision” shows that both countries have agreed upon promoting multilateral connectivity for catalysing Sri Lanka’s economic recovery.

In the media statement released after the vision document was adopted, Prime Minister Narendra Modi summed up the vision - ‘to strengthen the maritime, air, energy and people-to-people connectivity’ between the two countries. The vision is to accelerate mutual-cooperation in tourism, power, trade, higher education and skill development. It said the vision was India’s long-term commitment towards Sri Lanka.

In Sri Lanka, the Vision statement is likely to be welcomed particularly the decision to allow the use of Indian rupee for trade settlement between the two countries and operationalising UPI based digital payment system.

However, some of the decisions like facilitating investment from India in the divestment of Sri Lankan state owned enterprises and discussing an Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement are likely to provoke the opposition protest.  

PM Modi’s statement indicated that some of the perennial unresolved issues between the two countries were also discussed, though the Vision document did not mention them. These included the humane approach needed to handle the issue of Indian fishermen poaching in Sri Lanka waters and ethnic reconciliation.

On ethnic reconciliation, PM Modi spoke of President Wickremesinghe telling him about his inclusive approach. The PM’s statement hoped “the Government of Sri Lanka will fulfil the aspirations of the Tamils. Will drive the process of rebuilding for equality, justice and peace. Will fulfil its commitment to implement the 13th Amendment and conduct the Provincial Council Elections. And will ensure a life of respect and dignity for the Tamil community of Sri Lanka.”

India’s Foreign Secretary Kwatra at a media briefing said the PM conveyed to President Wickremesinghe that India continues to look forward to a political solution that addresses the aspirations of the Tamil community for equality, justice, self-respect within the framework of a united and prosperous Sri Lanka. The Foreign Secretary also indicated that China’s increasing forays into the Indian Ocean was also touched upon during the meeting.

13A - Elephant in the room

President Wickremesinghe in his media statement said he shared with the Indian PM “comprehensive proposal” he presented earlier for “furthering reconciliation, power sharing through devolution and the multiple elements of the Northern development plan. The President’s ‘comprehensive proposal’ envisaged implementing the 13 A in the North and East excluding the grant of police powers to the provincial council. However, at the all party conference convened on President Wickremesinghe’s return from Sri Lanka, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) stuck to its demand for holding the PC elections immediately and finding a federal solution to the ethnic reconciliation. The stand of many political parties including the main opposition SJB on the President’s proposal is confused and not clear.

The TNA in a statement issued on July 30 ““The TNA unequivocally conveyed to the President at the very first all-party conference on 10 December 2022, that the PCs Elections must be held without further delay. We also discussed measures necessary to make devolution meaningful. Several discussions were held with the President and at the second all-party conference on 26 January 2023, we again reiterated our position. It was the same position that was conveyed at the last all-party conference that was held on 26 July 2023.” So, the President’s effort on implementing 13A sans police powers for the PCs has become a non-starter. It is doubtful that President Wickremesinghe would expend his energies on this issue, as there is a lot of churn up within the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) whose support is essential for the President to act.

It is time Tamil parties accepted the proposal of implementing 13A sans police powers, provided policemen posted to the North and East have functional knowledge of Tamil. This would be a true test of sincerity of the President’s intent to implement 13A in a modified form. It will also be an acid test for mainstream political parties on their support to ethnic reconciliation.

But the President may not want that as his priority is likely to be to delay the holding of the PC elections rather than burying the 13A issue once and for all. After all, political parties on all sides need the ethnic confrontation issue as the carrot when they go to the voters in the next poll, whether it is the PC or presidential poll next year. So 13A is likely to continue to be the elephant in the room in future discourse between India and Sri Lanka on ethnic reconciliation.

The roots of 13^th Amendment to Sri Lanka Constitution lie in the1983 Black July pogrom and its aftermath. Though Tamils have faced violence at the hands of Sinhala majority in 1956, 1958, 1977 and 1981, Black July was vastly different in scale and execution of targeted violence against Tamils and their properties and businesses.

It escalated the traditional ethnic confrontation to irreconcilable ethnic conflict situation. The pogrom initially orchestrated by the ruling United National Party (UNP) under President JR Jayawardane, was triggered by the death of 13 soldiers ambushed by the LTTE near Jaffna on July 23, 1983. When the arrival of their bodies was delayed for an ill-conceived state funeral in Colombo on July 24, over 10,000 Sinhalas went berserk. In the week long pogrom that followed over 3000 Tamils were killed, over 200,000 people were displaced and countless houses and 2500 business enterprises of Tamils were destroyed.

Though four decades have passed its scars are still hurting the process of ethnic reconciliation. The Black July pogrom led to major intervention by India that resulted in the India-Sri Lanka Agreement 1987(ISLA). India’s military intervention to ensure the enforcement of the ISLA was far from smooth. Events in its aftermath has left a lot of bitterness on both sides of the Palk Strait.

One of the fortuitous things ISLA achieved was enabling the passage of the 13A. It may not be as powerful as the 13^th Amendment to the US Constitution that led to the abolition of slavery and servitude in the country. But 13A’s impact on the ethnic reconciliation was significant: it gives a level of autonomy to the Tamil minority with the creation of provincial councils. Though provincial councils were created, they were never given powers over the police and land. In the absence of these powers, they have been reduced to glorified municipalities.

President Wickremesinghe cannot wish away the implementation of 13A because PM Modi is firm on it. He had hoped in his statement “the Government of Sri Lanka will fulfil the aspirations of the Tamils. Will drive the process of rebuilding for equality, justice and peace. Will fulfil its commitment to implement the 13th Amendment and conduct the Provincial Council Elections. And will ensure a life of respect and dignity for the Tamil community (italics added) of Sri Lanka.” The use of three "wills" in the statement indicates his mindset. PM Modi is determined to win over the voters from Tamil Nadu in the 2024 parliamentary election. Resolving the ethnic issue in Sri Lanka will give him a huge leg up in the election, at least in BJP’s reckoning. RW should not underestimate Modi.

Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com  Website: https://col.hariharan.info]    

South China Sea Tensions Will Spill Over into Indian Ocean, Warns Ex-Indian Colonel

 https://sputniknews.in/20230630/south-china-sea-tensions-will-spill-over-into-indian-ocean-warns-ex-indian-colonel-2756166.html

Dhairya Maheshwari / June 30, 2023/ Sputnik news India

Daniel Kritenbrink, US assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, has said that Washington expects a greater partnership with India in the South China Sea.

A former officer in India’s Directorate of Military Intelligence has told Sputnik that “worsening” of tensions between Beijing and Washington in the South China Sea carry the potential to spill over into the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and affect the regional dynamics in the South Asian region.

“Most of South Asia (with the exception of Pakistan) and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) are now part of the US Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM),” underlined Colonel (Retd.) R. Hariharan, who oversaw the Indian Army’s intelligence operations across South Asia.

Hariharan, who was also part of the Indian Peacekeeping Force (IPKF) to Sri Lanka in the 1980s, said that a greater India-US strategic convergence under the Quad framework would “inevitably raise concerns” among Bangladesh and Myanmar.

“And greater coordination and cooperation between their navies means greater the concern particularly when these smaller powers (Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka) are trying to balance their relationship with China's increasing footprint in South Asia,” the Army veteran remarked.

With the exception of India and Bhutan, all the other South Asian nations are part of Beijing-backed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Beijing also ranks among the top two biggest trading partners of all South Asian nations, including India’s.

Hariharan cautioned that since New Delhi was the only Quad member which shared a “long border” with Beijing, thus making it a “key partner” in American strategic calculations to compete with China.

New Delhi and Beijing are involved in a military standoff in the eastern Ladakh region. Troops from both sides clashed at the Galwan Valley region in 2020, resulting in 20 Indian and five Chinese fatalities.

India has maintained that peace and tranquillity at the border are the basis of its overall bilateral relations with China.

Meanwhile, Washington has made no secret about its strategic motive to maintain its global pre-eminence with the help of a network of allies and partners amid Beijing’s growing economic and political clout.

The Biden administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS), released last year, described Beijing as the “most consequential” global challenger to the US.

‘Increasing Coordination’ Between Indian and US Navy

The military intelligence expert predicted that there would be an “increasing level of coordination” between the Indian and US Navies in the coming months.

“The US policy on India is a complex one conditioned by its strategic

 

perceptions,” Hariharan commented.

He noted that the US and India have now signed all the four “foundational pacts” which Washington asks a country to do in order to supply it with advanced military technology.

These pacts are:

General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA);

Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA);

Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA);

Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA).

Hariharan explained that as per LEMOA, Washington could use the Indian naval bases for repair and maintenance.

“The COMCASA provides for secure communication between the two. But, the most important is the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) signed in 2020, which allows sharing of geospatial information and improve operational efficiency of US equipment used by India,” the Army veteran said as he outlined the significance of the foundational agreements.

New Delhi and Washington have also concluded the ‘Master Ship Repair Agreement’ to potentially make India a “hub for maintenance and repair for forward deployed US Navy assets”.

Hariharan said that US has designated New Delhi as a “major defense partner” and was treating it “on par” with a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ally.

New Delhi has rejected American overtures on being part of a ‘NATO Plus’ arrangement, with Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar stating that a ‘NATO template’ doesn’t apply to India.

 

Sri Lanka: Ranil’s ambitious DDO plans

 Col R Hariharan | Sri Lanka Perspectives June 2023 | South Asia Security Trends July 2023 | www.security-risks.com

President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s efforts to re-structure both domestic and external debt to meet International Monetary Fund debt ceilings on debt sustainability made some progress by the end of the month.  In the wake of Sri Lanka’s economic collapse last year, the IMF had extended nearly $3 billion External Fund Facility. As on March 2023, Sri Lanka’s foreign and domestic debts were around $ 41.5 billion and $ 42.1 billion.

A special session of parliament is being debt convened on July1 and 2 to discuss and approve the plan for Domestic Debt Optimisation (DDO).

The Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weeresinghe briefed the media on the DDO plan. The DDO aims at restructuring the nations domestic debt by recasting the outgoing sums of the pension funds and offering international sovereign bondholders a repayment plan with a 30% haircut. This means the Central Bank will convert superannuation funds, treasury bonds and treasury bonds to longer term maturity treasury bonds.

The DDO aims to protect local banks who are already affected by NPA by excluding them from the plan. Explaining this, the Governor said “It is vital to protect the banking sector, as a collapse [of it] would have a catastrophic consequence for some 57 million depositors.” On the other hand, the DDO will transfer the burden on superannuation funds, including the Employees Provident Fund (EPF). With these measures Sri Lanka hopes to reduce its Debt to GDP ratio from 125% to 95%.

President Wickremesinghe has described the SL Rs 700 billion worth DDO as a “small sacrifice” for Sri Lanka shedding the “bankrupt” label by September.

Speaking at a meeting in Colombo, the President appealed to the people to support the debt restructuring plan. If not, he cautioned, “If we do this successfully, we can go forward. If we go and change it, you go down. What will happen if we let go of this? We will immediately lose the $700 million that the World Bank has committed. The second IMF review will be a failure and I hope by September that Sri Lanka will be able to shed its bankruptcy status.”

The plan to use the EPF to implement the DDO had caused concern among trade unions. The delegation of trade union leaders met the President. President Wickremesinghe has assured that priority was being given to ensure protection of depositors as well as the members of the EPF. In this respect he has asked the MPs to support necessary legislation to guarantee 9% return to EPF members.

The Committee on Public Finance (COPF) chairman Harsha de Silva tweeted on June 30, the Committee endorsed the DDR proposal with majority support. Opposition members had voted against it. The chairman de Silva had expressed some reservations on the plan affecting the EPF and superannuation funds; so he did not vote. In any case he belongs to the main opposition Samagi Jama Balawegaya (SJB) which has decided to vote against the DDR.

The passing of the DDR plan in parliament on July 2 will determine not only the future course of Sri Lanka’s economic recovery but also will determine the political fortunes of the Rajapaksas. President appears to have embarked on a mission to get a Yes from the people for the DDR plan, more than political factions supporting or opposing him. This may well determine the contours of future political developments in the nation.

Among Sri Lankan leaders perhaps Wickramasinghe is a good negotiator at the international level.  But getting ‘Yes’ from the people is not easy. In the classic book on negotiations “Getting to Yes: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In”, authors Roger Fisher, William Ury and Bruce Patton argue that negotiators don’t have to choose between either waging a strictly competitive, win or lose negotiation battle or caving in to avoid conflict.

They argue that bargainers should look at negotiation strategies that can help both sides get a little more than they want. This requires closely listening to each other, treating each other fairly and jointly exploring options to increase value. Can the President whose survival in power depends upon the how the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) conducts itself in Parliament, carry his economic plan to its logical success? Only time will tell, as the SLPP has its umbilical linkages to the Rajapaksas, who are fighting their own battles.

Tailpiece: Gotabaya rides again!

Former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa is once again in the news for all the wrong reasons. An Associated Press news report on June 22 stated the former president has been accused of allegedly “tampering with police records in order to hamper investigations into mass graves discovered in an area where he was a military officer at the height of a bloody JVP (Marxist) insurrection in 1989. The allegation was made in a report recently released by the International Truth and Justice Project, Journalists for Democracy and Families of the Disappeared in Sri Lanka. The report alleged that Gotabaya while serving as defence secretary under brother President Mahinda Rajapaksa ordered the destruction of all police recorders older than five years at police stations where the mass graves were discovered.

Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com  Website: https://col.hariharan.info