Sri Lanka: AKD starts 2025 with tight rope walking

 

In Sri Lanka Perspectives January 2025, Col Hariharan reflects on AKD's China visit and portends of balancing with India

South Asia Security Trends, February 2025 | https://www.security-risks.com

In Brief

President Anura Kumar Dissanayake started the new year with some tight rope walking both externally and internally. It did not matter that he was following up what was contemplated earlier by his predecessors. His maiden state visit to China hogged the media space as a slew of formal agreements were signed during the visit. These included an agreement with Sinopec to build a $3.7 bn oil refinery in Hambantota and the Bank of China (BoC) and the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) renewing the currency swap agreement for RMB 10 bn (equal to about $1.7 bn) for three years. These agreements will help China to strengthen its presence in Sri Lanka, particularly in the energy sector. That can make Sri Lanka's strategic balancing act with India and the US, a little more difficult.

Sri Lanka’s export earnings touched a record high figure of $16.1 bn in 2024. This has stoked AKD’s ambitions to set the export revenue target of $36 bn by 2030. Similarly, the government has raised the renewable energy target from the current 70 percent by 2030 to 100 percent.

President Dissanayake repeated his promise to abolish pensions for parliamentarians. Already a committee headed by a retired Supreme Court judge has submitted its report on perks and privileges enjoyed by politicians. It probably includes recommendations on the high cost of running mansions provided to former presidents. These moves caused a flutter among opposition politicians. Former president Mahinda Rajapaksa is already furious with the downgrading of his security detail. And the talk of huge amounts spent by the State on maintaining former presidents is making him livid. To add to his agony, the government had booked his two sons on criminal charges. Yoshitha Rajapaksa was arrested on a money laundering charge hanging fire from 2019. Namal, the national organiser of Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), is facing charges of criminal misappropriation of LKR 70 million related to the Krrish Tower project. People are keenly awaiting follow up action on these cases; in the past even after filing charges, the cases never came up before the courts.

The month ended on a sour note on relations with India, when a Sri Lanka Navy sailor opened fire injuring two Indian fishermen poaching off the coast of Valvettithurai in Jaffna peninsula’s northern coast. It served as a strong reminder to both Sri Lanka and India of the unresolved issue of Tamil Nadu fishermen continuing to poach in Sri Lankan waters, regardless of government injunctions on both sides.

Comparing AKD’s visits to China and India

President Dissanayake visited China from 14-17 January 2025. The joint statement issued after his meeting with President Xi Jinping is interesting when compared with the joint statement issued after President Dissanayake’s visit to New Delhi in December 2024. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had “affirmed India’s continued commitment to support Sri Lanka in its economic stabilization efforts for its economic recovery and economic growth.” PM Modi further assured President Dissanayake that India's approach would be investment-based and grant-oriented to reduce the debt burden on Sri Lanka and to assist them in generating economic opportunities that are long-term and sustainable and will eventually contribute to growing the absolute size of the Sri Lankan economy. (Emphasis added).

In contrast, the joint statement issued in Beijing gives a glimpse of how China views its relationship with smaller countries like Sri Lanka. China focused on "mutual trust, support, respect, win-win cooperation, and common development" while reiterating "its commitment to an independent foreign policy of peace." It expressed its “firm support for Sri Lanka in safeguarding its independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.” Sri Lanka, while reaffirming this, reiterated "its commitment to an independent, non-aligned foreign policy." Sri Lanka expressed "its commitment to the one-China principle, recognizing the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government representing the whole of China, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory" along with strong opposition to "Taiwan independence." Sri Lanka pledged not to allow anti-China or separatist activities on its territory.

For the first time, Sri Lanka “reassured its support to China regarding its policies with Xizang (Tibet) and Xinjiang.” The explicit emphasis on Tibet and Xinjiang for the first time shows China’s anxiety in seeking reassurance from a Buddhist country like Sri Lanka. Some of the other agreements of interest signed during the visit are discussed below.

Energy security and Hambantota Oil Refinery

During AKD’s visit an agreement was signed with Sinopec Group for establishing a state-of-the art oil refinery at Hambantota. The refinery estimated to cost $ 3.7 billion, will have a capacity of 200,000 barrels daily, mainly for export. It also reflected the significance of Hambantota as a strategic economic hub for China. Opting for a high-cost oil refinery project might appear contrary to Sri Lanka’s goal of achieving energy self-sufficiency through renewable energy sources by 2030. However, it gives Sri Lanka the option to diversify its energy sources, reducing its dependence on imported refined petroleum products. It can also stimulate economic growth in the region and create jobs. Most importantly, the large-scale Chinese investment project strengthens Sri Lanka’s strategic partnership with China with potential for more investments in allied industries.

As against this, India’s approach towards Sri Lanka’s energy security is more holistic. The emphasis is on the need for reliable, affordable and timely energy resources to meet the basic needs of the people. The Indian and Sri Lankan leaders had agreed to take steps towards the implementation of the solar power project in Sampur, continue discussion on supply of LNG from India to Sri Lanka, establishing a high-capacity power grid connecting India and Sri Lanka. Both countries also agreed to cooperate with the UAE to implement a multi-product pipeline from India to Sri Lanka to supply affordable energy. They had also agreed to jointly develop offshore wind power potential in Palk Straits, paying attention to environmental protection. Both the leaders had agreed to continue with the development of Trincomalee tank farms and develop Trincomalee as a regional energy and industrial hub. 

Financial and Technical Assistance

China granted Sri Lanka RMB 500 million for Economic and Technical Cooperation. They also agreed to create an Investment and Economic Cooperation Working Group to enhance bilateral trade and encourage investments. The CBSL and the PBoC renewed their Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement in December 2024. This agreement, originally signed in 2021, allows for a currency swap facility of RMB10 billion (approximately USD 1.4 billion). The renewed agreement extends the facility for another three years. The financial cooperation agreement aims to enhance economic stability and support trade between the two countries.

As against this, India ‘s Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and CBSL entered into a bilateral currency swap agreement on July 24, 2020. This was part of the SAARC Currency Swap Framework 2019-23. Under this agreement CBSL can draw up to $400 million in multiple tranches to meet short term forex requirements. The CBSL and RBI are also discussing securing an additional $1 billion under a special swap agreement.

Chinese language and cultural exchange

Apart from promoting teaching the Chinese language in Sri Lanka, it is proposed to develop the China-Sri Lanka Joint Centre for Education and Research “to strengthen scientific and technological exchanges.” The two sides will also cooperate in areas including "youth, think tanks, sports, and the media, build upon the bond of Buddhist exchanges and sister-city exchanges." There is also reference to jointly promote tourism flows, with China encouraging Sri Lankan cities to participate in the International Tourism Alliance of Silk Road Cities (ITASRC). Since 2024, China has been promoting ITASRC to further BRI interests.

BRI and Maritime cooperation

Greater commitment for integrated development of infrastructure projects – Colombo Port City and Hambantota Port – which are expected to draw more investments and offer economic opportunities. China also wants Sri Lanka’s participation in the BRI Green Development Coalition in view of climate change. They have agreed to collaborate in disaster prevention, mitigation and emergency management and rescue. They are to negotiate a MoU on Ocean Cooperation towards a Blue Partnership for sustainable use of ocean resources. This will mean more Chinese “research ships” visiting Sri Lanka’s neighbourhood.

Security

China and Sri Lanka in their joint statement recognised “judicial, law enforcement and security cooperation as an important component of bilateral cooperation, and stand ready to jointly crack down on cross-border crimes such as telecom fraud and online gambling. China is ready to do its best to support capacity building in Sri Lanka's judicial, law enforcement and security areas and provide assistance with police supplies.” This is interesting as it may lead to the establishment of Chinese police stations in Sri Lanka. According to a Brookings report “between 2016 and 2022, four local Chinese public security bureaus established 102 overseas police service stations in 53 countries across North and South America, Europe, Africa, and Asia.

India’s security cooperation with Sri Lanka is on a different level. The New Delhi joint statement says the two countries “reaffirmed their commitment to work together in countering traditional and non-traditional threats as well as to ensure a free, open, safe and secure Indian Ocean Region. India being Sri Lanka’s closest maritime neighbour, President Disanayaka reiterated Sri Lanka’s stated position of not permitting its territory to be used in any manner inimical to the security of India as well as towards regional stability.”

The two countries agreed to explore the possibility of concluding a framework Agreement on Defence Cooperation. India had also agreed to extend assistance in providing defence platforms and assets to augment Sri Lanka’s defence capabilities with tailor made training programmes.

Enterprise support

China has agreed to continue supporting Sri Lankan tea, gems, and other enterprises. This programme “would propel exports of Sri Lankan goods.” The leader’s discussion “included various ways to push forward digital transformation, green development, and logistics to offer Sri Lanka an opportunity to introduce modernized activities within industries. During President AKD’s New Delhi visit, he expressed Sri Lanka’s interest in exploring the establishment of people-centric digitization as in India to improve governance, service delivery and social welfare. Accordingly, India agreed to help in expediting implementation of Sri Lanka's Unique Digital Identity (SLUDI) project and assist Sri Lanka to roll out Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI). India had also agreed to promote digital financial transactions by extending the use of UPI digital payments to benefit both countries.

Tailpiece: Illegal arms threat

73 T-56 firearms are reported missing from the armoury of an army camp in Polonnaruwa. Authorities have recovered 36 of them and the rest are still unaccounted for. According to the Geneva-based Small Arms Survey estimates, there are around 1.9 million illegal small arms in Sri Lanka, with the total number of small arms in the country potentially reaching 2.3 million, significantly higher than official figures of registered firearms which are much lower. This is one issue in which President AKD’s urgent attention is required amidst his official preoccupations.

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com, Website: https://col.hariharan.info]

President Dissanayake’s agenda for 2025

 Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives December 2024 | South Asia Security Trends, January 2025 | https://www.security-risks.com

The reassertion of democratic polity in Sri Lanka during the year 2024 is the signal achievement of the people of the country, more than its political class. They had shown that the Aragalaya protests, which toppled President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the Rajapaksa clan from power, mattered in deciding the winners in both presidential and parliamentary elections. They not only elected the National People's Power (NPP) leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake (aka AKD) as President, but also gave the NPP two-thirds majority in parliament

These changes in power politics by the end of 2024 has given a new life to the country’s democracy, wilting under the burden of self-seeking politicians. People voted for the neophyte President AKD and the NPP government because they want a change from the way the mainstream parties ruled them. They had voted the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe combine to power in 2015 with similar hopes. But their hopes were shattered when the duo failed to fulfil their promises. Not only that, their endless squabbles resulted in Easter Sunday terrorist attacks.

This time the people will probably put the AKD government on probation to ensure the government meets their aspirations. The year 2024 has ended with AKD in power for barely 100 days and it is only 49 days since the parliament came into being. It is probably too early to judge the performance of the government under AKD’s leadership.

But even within this short period AKD has taken some welcome steps on both symbolic and substantive issues. Some of the actions of AKD like shunning official residence, swearing in the smallest cabinet, electing the highest number of women MPs from non- political families and giving representation in parliament to visually challenged person, were symbolic. But they reflected the liberal views of the government.

President’s action agenda 2025

President Dissanayake in his brief New Year message has spoken of  initiating “a transformative political shift, fulfilling our democratic responsibilities to build the good governance our citizens aspire to.” The primary developmental goals include eradicating rural poverty, implementing the ‘Clean Sri Lanka’ initiative, and building a digital economy.

The “Clean Sri Lanka” initiative, launched alongside the New Year, aims to uplift society to greater heights through social, environmental, and ethical revival. The program envisions a broad national effort, transcending political and communal differences, to instil attitudinal, behavioural, and qualitative changes among citizens. It focuses on improving living standards, eradicating corruption, and promoting transparency and accountability in every sector.

The initiative also includes a dedicated website and app to enhance public participation and transparency. The goal is to position Sri Lanka among the cleanest nations in the world and ensure a prosperous and beautiful life for all its citizens. This is likely to occupy immediate attention of the government so that visible changes are ushered in the country.

AKD’s agenda is likely to focus on internal issues so that the NPP performs reasonably well in local body elections in 2025. The NPP has a weak footprint on the ground unlike mainstream parties which have traditional strongholds. Issues with a long gestation period like reframing of the constitution and even abolition of executive presidency are likely to be deferred.   

This means existing foreign policy initiatives involving India, China and the US are likely to continue. It will also mean deferring controversial issues involving India like the talks on the Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) to enhance economic and technological cooperation between the two countries which was resumed with 12^th round of talks in November 2023. Similarly, full implementation of 13^th Constitutional Amendment giving minority Tamils a level of autonomy, which India had been insisting on, is also likely to go down in AKD’s priority. At the same time the issue of Indian fishermen poaching in Sri Lankan waters is likely to be elevated to the government-to-government level as it can help NPP to garner votes in Northern Province in local body elections.

Other issues likely to figure in AKD’s 2025 agenda are given below.

Good governance issues:

Administrative reforms by digitisation of data to enable timely delivery of relief to citizens is likely to be given priority. To curb wasteful expenditure the government has already undertaken various measures:

·      Revising security arrangements for former presidents: Starting from January 1, 2025, the government has decided to withdraw members of the tri-forces from the security details of former presidents. Only police officers will now handle their security. The new norm based on security assessments is expected to save over SL Rs1,000 million annually. Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa's security expenses were the highest at Rs 710 million spent on his protection. Similarly, STF protection will now only be provided to the President and Prime Minister.

·      Abolition of the post of Chief of Defence Staff: The AKD government has decided to abolish the Office of the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) at the end of the year 2024. This decision comes as General Shavendra Silva, the current CDS, retires after 40 years of service. The CDS post was initially established to coordinate joint operations among the armed forces. However, the new government believes that the post is no longer necessary given the current security landscape, which is perhaps realistic. The AKD government has decided to employ armed forces only in military roles; this may herald the restructuring of the armed forces.

Anti-corruption drive

Since AKD came to power, the anti-corruption drive has been gingered up, resulting in several high-profile cases. The government is to appoint a committee to look for amendments in the Anti-Corruption Act passed in 2023 to block legal and technical loopholes while carrying out investigations. Here are some of the major cases being investigated:

·      Central Bank Bond Scam: This infamous case, which has been a focal point of public outrage, involves allegations of large-scale financial fraud during the final years of the previous administration. AKD has revived the investigations.

·      Ministerial Malfeasance: Whistleblower Thushan Gunawardena exposed alleged corruption involving high-ranking ministers. His revelations led to a series of investigations targeting corrupt officials.

·      Public Procurement Fraud: Several cases of corruption in public procurement processes have been uncovered, involving the misallocation of funds and resources meant for public projects.

·      Tax Evasion and Revenue Department Corruption: The IMF recommended immediate anti-corruption measures within revenue departments are likely to continue.

Drive against narcotics trafficking

In 2024, approximately 149,000 individuals were apprehended for drug related offences. During operation Yukthiya, which began in December 2023, led to the recovery of drugs worth over SL Rs 19 billion. With international tourist figures touching two million in 2024, Sri Lanka is likely to further tighten measures against narcotics trafficking with the cooperation of India during 2025. 

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com, Website: https://col.hariharan.info] 

Cruising through troubled waters of Sri Lanka politics

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives November 2024 | South Asia Security Trends, December 2024 | https://www.security-risks.com

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake (popularly known as AKD) led National Peoples Power (NPP)’s landslide victory in the general election in November 2024 two-thirds majority - in parliament, sends many signals. The NPP – which sported Sinhala nationalism as its USP – won 159 seats in most of the seats in 22 of the electoral districts barring Batticaloa. This clearly indicated people all over the country regardless of their ethnicity or religion wanted a change, probably disgusted with the conduct of mainstream national parties.

There are many firsts in AKD’s government. The cabinet of 21 ministers sworn in on November 24 is the smallest ever in Sri Lanka’s democratic history. It has its first woman prime minister in three decades, that too one not belonging to a political family. As every member of the cabinet is a graduate, it is also perhaps the most educated cabinet ever. We are told that among the 21 members are three professors and three doctors—two allopathic ones and the PM herself an academic doctorate holder. All of them come without any political baggage, so people will expect them to maintain it. It is also a cabinet full of the inexperienced, as only two of them including AKD have been ministers earlier. While the ministers have the potential to work smartly, AKD has the additional burden of leading an inexperienced team that will be steering the nation towards progress. They will be expected to go the extra mile to deliver on their promises.

There are other firsts too, like 20 women – mostly from non-political families - have been elected as members of parliament. They include two women MPs Krishnan Kaleychelvi from Nuwara Eliya and Ambika Samuel from Badulla from among the hill country Tamils.

The NPP should be commended for another first – nomination of Sugath Wasantha De Silva, a visually challenged person - to parliament. De Silva is a well-known activist for the rights of the visually impaired and disabled communities. It showed the government has recognised the need for parliamentary representation for the country’s 1.3 million disabled persons.

But ‘firsts’ alone may not help AKD government to cruise through the troubled waters of Sri Lanka politics. The waters are filled with sharks and crocodiles who have been deprived of power. They may be lying low now, but not for long because they are well versed in political shenanigans. AKD must avoid two icebergs – economic progress and ending majoritarian politics – that have the potential to stall, if not sink, his government as earlier governments had done

Economic progress

The NPP had rubbished a crucial deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), when President Ranil Wickremesinghe had successfully negotiated the 48 month long IMF programme. In spite of this President Dissanayake has been pragmatic enough to understand it as essential for economic recovery. Shortly after his election as President, AKD had assured a high-powered IMF delegation that his government will implement severe austerity and privatisation measures. So, it was not surprising that IMF reached a staff-level agreement on the third review under the nation’s Extended Fund Facility arrangement. IMF Sri Lanka Senior Mission Chief Peter Breuer urged the government to increase social spending in the upcoming budget. He commended the government for its ambitious reform program but stressed the importance of inclusivity in the nation’s economic recovery. He added “Maintaining macroeconomic stability and restoring debt sustainability is key to securing Sri Lanka’s prosperity and requires persevering with responsible fiscal policy. Continued revenue mobilization efforts and spending restraint are needed to prepare the 2025 budget in line with program objectives.”

It is going to be difficult for the government to soften the impact of tax burden without affecting revenue generation. Similarly, privatisation of state-owned enterprises is not going to be easy as NPP controlled trade unions are against it.

The budget making exercise slated for February 2025 is going to test the skills of the NPP government in the clash between its ideology and IMF conditionalities. Under the circumstances, the news that Sri Lanka has been selected as one of 20 countries to establish a World Bank Group (WBG) integrated office, set to open in July 2025 should be heartwarming to AKD. WBG President Ajay Banga shared the news during a virtual meeting with President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and government officials to discuss Sri Lanka’s future development priorities. The establishment of the integrated South Asia office is expected to improve coordination between the four key WB institutions: the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the International Development Association (IDA), the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA).

Ending Sinhala majoritarian politics

President Dissanayake in his address to parliament has called for a political culture free of racism and divisiveness. He said that democracy does not mean forcing everyone to unite under a single umbrella, but rather letting diverse viewpoints and ethnic interests flourish against the backdrop of multi-party politics. “We do not advocate for one-party rule,” he declared. “It is the responsibility of our government to represent and address the needs and aspirations of all citizens – regardless of whether they voted for us or not.” It showed AKD has recognised Sinhala majoritarian politics practised overtly or covertly by successive governments as the core problem of Sri Lanka.

There are two aspects to Sinhala majoritarian politics. One relates to - managing Tamil nationalist aspirations and the other coming to terms with Muslim community. They are interrelated in some respects because both Tamils and Muslims are wary of their distinct religious, linguistic and cultural identities being subsumed by Sinhala majoritarian politics. In the past, fringe elements of Theravada Buddhism have been let loose against Muslims to achieve political ends of the ruling party. Three decades of Tamil separatist war, provokes latent fears of Sinhalas when Tamil politicians use separatist rhetoric of Tamil nationalism to garner votes even now.

Given this background, the biggest surprise in the general election was NPP winning most of the seats in all the five electoral districts of North and Eastern provinces North except of course Batticaloa. These provinces are populated mostly by Tamils and Muslims. The NPP won three of the six seats in Jaffna in the heartland of Sri Lankan Tamils.  It clearly showed that Tamils cannot be taken for granted by Tamil political parties and leaders by Tamil nationalist rhetoric alone. It was clear tha Tamils, like the Sinhala aspired for a change in national leadership.

This confers a huge responsibility on AKD’s government not only to fulfil longstanding aspirations of Tamils and Muslims that have been promised many times but not met fully so far. At the same time AKD and NPP has to retain its grass roots support among the Sinhala majority nurtured on majoritarian political rhetoric. This is going to be the biggest challenge of AKD government.

The government allowing the people in the North to observe Maaveerar Naal (Heroes Day) on November 27 to honour their deceased relatives in the Eelam wars is a typical case in point. The government clarified that while individuals will not be prevented from remembering their loved ones who died during the country’s civil war. But they must refrain from displaying any logos, uniforms or images related to the LTTE, as it remains a proscribed organisation.This is more easily said, than done, because pro-LTTE rhetoric is the lifeblood of many Tamil parties.

According to a Sunday Times report Tamil politician MK Sivajilingam. organised an event to mark the slain LTTE leader V Prabhakaran’s birthday that fell on the previous day—November 26 at an empty land in Valvettiturai where the ancestral house of Prabhakaran was destroyed by security forces. A banner was put up with the picture of Prabhakaran. Local police got into action immediately to cover the image with tape but allowed the event to go ahead without any disturbances. The newly elected independent Tamil MP from Chavakacheri Dr Archuna Ramanathan has called LTTE leader V Prabhakaran his god in a podcast. Such provocative statements are likely to be exploited by hardline Sinhala leaders fringe elements and opposition parties.

AKD government has one Tamil representative from the North. Ramalingam Chandrasekar, picked by NPP as a national list MP, has been made Minister for Fisheries, a post held for long by Douglas Devananda, the EPDP leader. This is the only ministerial post given to a Tamil representative from Northern Province.

For the first time in Sri Lanka’s history, there is no Muslim in the cabinet. This is perhaps the biggest vulnerability of AKD’s government. Even pro-Rajapaksa Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), founded on the bedrock of Sinhala majoritarian politics, had a Muslim minister in their cabinet. President Dissanayake has loftily declared that “no one will be allowed to use nationalist or religious rhetoric as a means to gain political power in this country”. Historically such declarations by Presidents came to nought when Sinhala Buddhist fringe elements went on a rampage against Muslims. Muslims have been on the defensive since April 2019 when jihadi elements carried out Easter Sunday bombings killing 269 people including 45 foreigners. Politically, the wounds caused by the jihadi attack have not healed. Findings of inquiries and commissions appointed to look into the jihadi attacks have been mired in controversy. The AKD government is trying to bring the controversy to a closure should be wary of yet another bout of anti-Muslim campaign by mainstream opposition parties.

To sum up, the AKD government’s journey is not going to be easy despite the two-thirds majority enjoyed in parliament. Opposition parties, particularly which have been mauled like the SLPP, are not going to allow the government to fulfil people’s expectations. AKD should have a wider consultative process, beyond his party. He should build bridges with opposition parties and civil society leaders so that there is a broad consensus on key issues that are included in the NPP agenda. It is important to tame Sinhala majoritarianism so that the spirit of nationalism shown by minorities in voting for the NPP to power is rewarded.

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com, Website: https://col.hariharan.info] 

Public policy conclave : "SHAPING TOMORROW'S GOVERNANCE"

Sri Lanka: AKD riding the tiger

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives September 2024 | South Asia Security Trends, October 2024 |  https://www.security-risks.com/post/sri-lanka-akd-riding-the-tiger 

Anura Kumara Dissanayake, candidate of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and National Peoples Power (NPP) front, has been elected as President of Sri Lanka in the election held on September 24. His election is a proof that the Aragalaya, the spontaneous mass protests in May 2022 was no flash in the pan. Anura’s campaign focused on the youth, who had rallied together during Aragalaya protests and successfully converted them into votes. However, Anura does not seem to have understood the younger generations’ discontent against the existing political class and systems that generated Aragalaya protests. His speeches in the run up to the election focused on providing corruption free administration. His detailed election manifesto titled “A Prosperous Nation, A Beautiful Life” gives a summary of plans for the development of various sectors, including engineering, IT, the economy, social issues, education, and health. But speaks of no systemic changes.

 

So Anura will be riding the tiger of peoples’ expectations, heightened by his remarkable success as the first Marxist leader to be elected president by popular vote. Those who voted for him will expect systemic changes in the way Sri Lanka politics is conducted. They are the same protestors who successfully ran the GotaGoGama (Gota Go Village) campaign at Galle Face Green in Colombo that dethroned Gotabaya. Can Anura meet their expectations?

Anura had the political acumen to take advantage of the murky leadership situation in major political parties under which presidential election 2024 was held. Schism of leaders within political parties before elections is nothing unusual in Sri Lanka politics. However, the election in 2024 presented unusual challenges to political parties. They wanted to distance themselves from President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. His disastrous economic policies and gross misuse of power (if you can call condoning criminal acts of political and military cronies) set a new low in governance. Before Gotabaya, President Maithripala Sirisena was elected with a promise to bring the criminal elements to book but failed disastrously. The Easter Sunday terrorist attacks, perpetrated despite advance warning, stands as a monumental disaster of his tenure. Gotabaya's ignominious exit as President in 2022 will be remembered by the voters for a long time. 

After his exit, the Rajapaksas, whose Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) had a majority in parliament, reluctantly propped up Ranil Wickremesinghe, as unelected interim president to buy time to extricate themselves. The interim president succeeded in resuscitating the economy to partial recovery after accepting the International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditions and successfully negotiating with the bondholders. Wickremesinghe had estimated that it would take five years for complete economic recovery. As the presidential election became overdue, the national economy has been left in the halfway house for recovery. As a result, the IMF conditions and the related austerity measures and high taxes, hangs like a Damocles sword over Anura.

President’s Agenda 

Economy: President Dissanayake’s agenda as given in his speeches including the inaugural speech has given top priority to reopening negotiations with the IMF immediately, particularly with activities related to the extended credit facility. It also plans to negotiate with creditors to advance the debt restructuring program to stabilise the economy. Global rating agency Moody’s has said it does not expect any significant shifts in Sri Lanka’s reform trajectory or policies, although some reprioritisation is likely. It said former president Wickremesinghe had pushed through an economic transformation act in Parliament in May. The act will oblige future governments to the current set of economic and fiscal reforms, including adhering to fiscal and debt targets set under the IMF programme.” It is to be seen how President Dissanayake will overcome this hurdle.

Making a difference: President Dissanayake said, “a key concept that resonates with the public is our commitment to making a “difference.” One of the primary changes citizens expect is to eliminate the negative traits in our political culture. He cited the success in making the presidential election the only one in Sri Lanka without post-election violence. He said, “Our aim is to confirm and stabilize this positive situation.” His determination to make a difference will be tested in the forthcoming parliamentary elections in November.

Strengthening Sri Lankan identity: The President said, “We are Sri Lankan citizens” and will not hesitate to implement the necessary constitutional, economic, and political reforms. How does he propose to address the vexing issue of society divided on ethnic and religious lines?

However, some of the President’s proposals like adopting tough anti-corruption measures, promoting good governance and social reforms will need strong majority support in parliament.

Parliamentary elections

The President proposes to hold the parliamentary election on November 14. The parliament has 225 members elected for a five-year term; 196 are elected from 22 multi-seat constituencies through an open list proportional representation. Voters can rank up to three candidates to the party list they vote for. The other 29 seats are elected from a national list prepared by party secretaries in proportion to the island-wide proportional vote obtained by the party.  

It will be an uphill task for Anura to convert the majority he won in the presidential election into votes for the JVP-NPP in the parliamentary election. According to the NPP website, the NPP is a dynamic political movement comprising 21 diverse groups, including political parties, youth organizations, women's groups, trade unions, and civil society organizations. It was established in 2019 for fostering a more progressive Sri Lanka for an inclusive, democratic Sri Lankan identity. 

In the 2020 Parliament election, NPP had secured only 3.84% votes and 3 seats. Logically, the NPP will have to broaden its agenda with specific takeaways to attract more coalition partners including Tamil and Muslim parties. This could mean a compromise on NPP’s rigid stand against implementing constitutional amendment 13 giving land and police powers to provincial councils. Is NPP ready for it? There is talk of Sajith Premadasa’s SJB and Wickremesinghe’s UNP coming together to build a strong coalition for the parliamentary election. Together Premadasa and Wickremesinghe had polled 49% votes in the presidential election. Both have a record of forming strong coalitions with Tamil and Muslim parties to take on other major parties in elections. So even if the NPP decides upon welcoming ethnic parties, they will have to contend with mainstream political parties which have a strong record of forming coalitions.  

On the positive side, Anura’s government has been quick to decide upon some of the vexing issues like the logjam in issuing E visas, quick withdrawal of MPs vehicles, and even in taking a relook at diluting the shares of state-owned Sri Lanka Airlines. But every action of the government will be watched by foreign and local investors because the NPP has never been in power.

Foreign support

President Dissanayake’s election has been welcomed by all the major powers including the US, UK, China, Japan and India. Both the IMF and the World Bank have announced their readiness to work with the new president. In fact, the Japanese Ambassador to Sri Lanka, has affirmed that the Japanese Government is committed to fully supporting the government’s efforts to combat corruption and irregularities. He further announced that work on 11 stalled projects funded by the Japanese Government will resume promptly.  Indian Minister for External Affairs S Jaishankar is visiting Colombo on October 4 to meet with President Dissanayake. If we go by past precedent, he may bear Indian PM Modi’s invitation to the Sri Lankan President to visit New Delhi. The other issue likely to come up in their meeting could be taking forward India-Sri Lank joint development vision.

The NPP had taken a stand against the Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) developing a USD 700 million container terminal at Colombo Port. Similarly, the NPP had been critical of the conglomerate's renewable energy firm, Adani Green Energy, setting up two wind projects of 286 MW in Mannar and 234 MW in Pooneryn with an investment of USD 500 million. The projects are to be completed by December 2024. It will be interesting to hear NPP stand on foreign investments, particularly from India, in the run up to the parliament elections in November.

Tailpiece: President Dissanayake might like to follow the advice of American President Franklin D Roosevelt; he said, “the future lies with those wise political leaders, who realize that the great public is more interested in government than in politics.”

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com, Website: https://col.hariharan.info] 

Manipur insurgency: Questions & Answers

Col R Hariharan

[Here are my answers to a few questions raised by scribes on the Manipur situation.]

Are there chances of Christian tribal outfits operating in Myanmar being involved in the Manipur (insurgent activity)? If so, what would they gain?

According to the American Baptist church website https://baptistworld.org , American Baptist churches “has had a deep and abiding relationship with Myanmar/Burma for over 200 years. It adds to say “Baptists from Myanmar came to the attention of D.C. Baptists in 1995. That year the Calvary Baptist Church began a congregation made up of varied ethnic families from Myanmar who had moved to the USA capital area from Myanmar. They established numerous congregations reflecting at least three ethnicities: Chin, Kachin, and Karen. Most of these churches became a part of the District of Colombia Baptist Church.

Today, seven percent of these churches are made up of these ethnic communities from Myanmar. They formed a multi ethnic “Burma Work Group” in 2016 to meet the spiritual and physical needs of the Baptist ministry in Myanmar. This provides an open conduit through which help in cash and kind from the US reaches the ethnic kin living in this region.

According to a note issued by DIPR, Mizoram government on February 14, 2024, a delegation of the Burma Advocacy Group, headed by Rev. Dr. Roy Medley, General Secretary Emeritus of the American Baptist Churches of the USA, convened with Chief Minister Pu Lalduhoma at his office today. They conveyed their appreciation for the warm reception and support extended to Burma refugees in Mizoram.

In the meeting, the Chief Minister discussed his recent meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah in New Delhi. He conveyed that the central government has shown positive response for improving the conditions of Burma refugees and expressed readiness to assist the Mizoram government when necessary.

The Burma Advocacy Group, consisting of the American Baptist Churches, Chin Baptist Church, Karen Baptist Church, Baptist Union of Norway, and their partner churches globally, is being hosted in Mizoram by the Baptist Church of Mizoram and Lairam Jesus Christ Baptist Church. Joseph Lalhimpuia, an ordained Baptist Elder and former Member of the Mizoram Legislative Assembly, has been tasked with guiding them during their trip in Mizoram.

During the Cold War days, CIA has been providing arms to insurgent groups ostensibly to prevent Communist takeover. At the time China was providing sanctuaries and arms to Burma’s Communist insurgents who threatened to bring down the military regime in Burma. After China took a policy decision not to arm Communist insurgencies in Myanmar, the Communists were crushed. But armed ethnic groups were well established along the border areas and Myanmar military officers found it lucrative to cohabit with insurgencies involved in drug trade by cultivating marijuana and producing of methamphetamine. This encouraged a thriving market for traffic in drugs, arms, humans and timber to India and SE Asia. This has been sustaining some of the so-called separatist insurgencies like the SSA (Shan State Army).

The Chins and Kachins live in areas bordering Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Mizoram. Chins have close kinship relations with Mizos. Karens live in areas bordering Thailand. These areas [in Myanmar] have been facing insurgency for the last four decades. At one stage, Mrs Bush Jr, the wife of President of the US George W Bush Jr, was the chairman of the Baptist helpline to Karens in Myanmar. The Biden Administration’s recently passed Burma Act formalises US supplies of ‘nonlethal’ aid to the insurgent groups fighting the military junta which is ruling Myanmar for the last three years. 

After the military take over of Myanmar three years ago, the ruling junta is locked in civil war with at least a dozen insurgency groups including National League for Democracy-led Peoples Democratic Force. The military had been steadily losing ground in areas bordering India, Bangladesh, China and Thailand. In Kachin, Chin and Rakhine states bordering Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram, a few thousand families of Myanmar militant groups have sought refuge with their kins on the Indian side. So Baptist Church in these states is sympathetic to their kin. The border trade facility providing movement across the border to 20 km on either side helps the situation.

The American Baptist missionaries are believed to be active in northern Myanmar for years now. Last year, the Biden administration also cleared the BURMA Act sanctioning non-lethal military aid to ethnic armed organizations (EAO) in Myanmar fighting the junta. Before her ouster, Prime Minister Hasina also claimed that a plan to create a Christian enclave was afoot in the region. So, are there fears about American involvement in the Manipur situation? 

I have already answered the part played by the US Baptist Church in Myanmar is earlier question. Of course, there is American involvement in support of insurgents fighting in Myanmar to bring down the ruling Junta. As regards former PM Sheikh Hasina’s allegations of creating a Christian enclave in areas bordering Bangladesh and Indian states of Manipur and Mizoram, needs to substantiated. To my knowledge it is still in the realm of speculation. She has also alleged that the Americans wanted to establish an air base in St Martin’s Island off the coast of Cox’s Bazar in Southeastern most tip of Bangladesh. I have stayed a few weeks in the area. In my view, the sandy island is too small in size for an airbase. The strong tidal variation in the cyclone prone area does not lend itself to the construction of any military base. 

How do you view China’s role here? 

China had been the fountainhead of arms supply and training to insurgent groups operating in India’s Northeast and Myanmar. In Cold War days, it was officially provided to Burmese Communist insurgent groups and later it was sold apparently illegally to insurgent groups which find their way to India.

China had provided arms and training to the cadres of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) to wage their separatist war for a long time. It is well documented both in India and Myanmar.

The Kanglaipak Communist Party (KCP) in Manipur, the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) have also been provided arms by China. A confession by the People's Liberation Army of Manipur (PLAM) member in 2019 suggested that PLAM was in touch with China's People's Liberation Army. Sixteen platoons of PLAM returned to Manipur after receiving training in China. The sophisticated rocket weapons, drones and other modern weapons used by Kuki insurgents in Manipur indicate they were probably sourced from China either directly or through illegal means.

 Lastly, India has been building a fence along the India-Myanmar border. We have also been cooperating with Burmese forces to maintain stability along the border region. What can be done to stabilise the situation?

Building a border fence will have limited value due to the rugged nature of terrain along the border. To maintain it requires patrolling by troops which is a humongous task. However, it has some political value.

Manipur is known for its ethnic and cultural diversity. It has been plagued by internecine conflicts among different ethnic groups and tribes. The State is home to the Meiteis -- the major ethnic group in the State -- who embraced Hinduism in 17th century. There are about 30 different tribes including  Nagas, Kukis, Paites, Thadous,  Simtes, Vaipheis, Raltes, Gangtes and Hmars. Unlike the Meiteis, who occupy the Imphal Valley, the other tribes inhabit the surrounding hill districts. The Meiteis constitute more than 50 per cent of the population but occupy only one-tenths of the State's area.

The Meiteis do not belong to the Scheduled Tribe (ST)-catergory while the hill tribes enjoy certain privileges like job reservation, protection of their lands from settlement and ownership by non-STs even if they are Manipuris. This has been strongly resented by the Meiteis who perceive that the hill tribes are garnering benefits disproportionate to their population. So, the problem can only be resolved only politically. However, the civil war in Myanmar has triggered the current situation and probably some security measures to cull out bad hats among refugee groups can bring back some level of normalcy. 

A Limited Mandate

 The interim government has many tasks before it, but it will not be easy to deal with them as the constitution has no provision for such a government. These are best left to an elected government

By Col R Hariharan | Magazine |Column | India Legal |September 2024

https://indialegallive.com/magazine/bangladesh-student-protests-interim-government-yunus-sheikh-hasina-mujibur-rahman/

The swearing-in of an interim government in Bangladesh on August 9, 2024, after the student-led protests snowballed into a mass movement forcing Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee, has raised many questions about the future of the country.

After spending the better part of my life as an intelligencer, happenings in Bangladesh from June to August have proved to me that intelligence is a 24×7 business. It also showed that even the best of intelligence forecasts can fail Alpha rulers like Hasina. It also failed her father Mujibur Rahman, the founding father of Bangladesh, when he turned into an Alpha ruler after coming to power with overwhelming support. 

Once in power, both father and daughter freely used the iron fist to suppress protests and opposition. That probably made them deaf to cautions of growing distrust among the people from intelligence sleuths. Mujib ignored India’s friendly intelligence warnings of an impending plot against him. He paid the ultimate price when he was slaughtered in 1975 with his wife and three sons in his home by a group of army officers on his birthday on August 15.

Ironically, the same house—32 Dhanmondi, Dhaka—preserved as a Bangabandhu Memorial Museum, was set on fire on August 5 this year by miscreants during the Non-Cooperation Protest Movement (NCPM). When some people gathered at the ruined residence to pay their respects on Mujib’s birthday, “miscreants” opened fire killing one person.

The swearing-in of an interim government in Bangladesh on August 9, 2024, after the student-led protests snowballed into a mass movement forcing Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee, has raised many questions about the future of the country. Even as the Museum was set on fire, continuous telecasts showed jubilant mobs vandalising the statue of Bangabandhu to bring it down. The scene was reminiscent of the destruction of Saddam Hussain’s statue in Iraq when he was out of power. On that day, local media estimated the crowds on the streets at four lakhs. The day before, as many as 98 people, including 14 police officers, were killed. It took the tally of those killed since the protests began in July to at least 300.

Hasina is a great survivor, having escaped 19 assassination attempts in her four-decade-long political career. She was able to flee the country to safety in New Delhi on August 5, after Bangladesh army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman withdrew support to her. She resigned a day later after the army chief announced that the armed forces would install an interim administration to run the government.

Army’s Choice 

The day after Hasina fled, the president dissolved the parliament. With that, the army chief probably succeeded in carrying out a soft coup with the installation of an interim government with Nobel laureate Mohammad Yunus as chief adviser. The 84-year-old Yunus is a member of the Nobel laureates club. He is well networked with the US government. He is linked to the Clinton Foundation. He is also a recipient of POTUS’ 2009 Presidential Medal of Freedom.

More than all that, Yunus has no love lost for Hasina. In 2007, Yunus came up with the idea of forming a political party, Citizen’s Power, to combat corruption and polarisation of power among a few leaders. Hasina saw him as a challenger to her quest for political power. After coming to power in 2008, her government began a series of investigations into Yunus’ activities. She criticised Grameen’s microlending practices, accusing Yunus of taking credit for poverty reduction efforts of her government that reduced poverty significantly over the last 15 years. Her government’s prosecution of Yunus and 13 others on June 14 on charges of embezzlement of Taka 252.2 million ($2 million) from the workers welfare fund of Grameen Telecom drew adverse international attention.

One hundred Nobel Laureates, including former POTUS Barack Obama, wrote an open letter to Hasina, urging an end to what they described as “continuous judicial harassment”. The UN human rights body raised concerns about the ongoing harassment and smear campaigns from the “highest levels of government” which could jeopardise a fair trial. It also probably influenced the World Bank’s decision to withdraw funding from the Padma Bridge project, a major infrastructure project.

In this context, the US State Department’s interest in the whole Yunus affair is interesting. On July 9, spokesperson Mathew Miller said: “We continue to monitor closely developments in the case against him. We have expressed for some time our concern that these cases may represent a misuse of Bangladesh’s labour laws to harass and intimidate Dr Yunus.” He cautioned that such “perceived misuse of labour and anti-corruption laws could raise questions about rule of law and dissuade future foreign direct investment”. In any case, since then, the Dhaka tribunal has dismissed the case against Yunus and 13 others after the Anti-Corruption Commission withdrew the charges in August.

Interim Government

The Bangladesh president’s decision to install an interim government was taken after obtaining a legal advisory from the Supreme Court of Bangladesh. This is because the Bangladesh constitution does not have a provision for an interim government. 

Tariq Ahmed, a foreign law specialist in the Global Law Research Directorate writing on the subject in the “Library of Congress” blog, says Article 123(3)(b) of the Constitution “stipulates that if parliament is dissolved for any other reason before the end of its term, general elections must be held within ninety days after such dissolution”. Moreover, Articles 58(4) & 57(3) provide that the prime minister [and existing ministers] continue to “hold office until his [or her] successor has entered upon office” if he or she resigns or ceases to hold office.

However, the president was faced with a legal conundrum, as neither the Hasina government nor the parliament existed. The president, through the Ministry of Law, Justice, and Parliamentary Affairs, sought a legal advisory from the Supreme Court whether an interim government could be formed under the unusual circumstances. A full bench of the Appellate Division on the same day issued a ruling “in favour of the formation of the interim government”, stating that “an interim government can be formed with a chief adviser and a few other advisers in the absence of parliament”. After receiving the advice, only then was the interim government sworn in.

The interim government, grappling with problems of restoring administration and law and order, may not be able to conduct a general election within 90 days (i.e. first week of November) of the dissolution of parliament as stipulated in the Constitution. In such a case, the interim government may have to take recourse to the “Doctrine of Necessity”. 

The Doctrine is a legal principle that permits administrative authorities to take extraordinary actions in emergencies or when upholding constitutional principles. These actions are considered lawful even if they violate established laws, norms or conventions. 

Yunus’ Mission

Chief Adviser Yunus has been speaking of his broad vision to establish good governance, democracy and human rights in the country. Broadly, he wants to carry out institutional reforms by forming six commissions to carry out systemic changes required for conducting fair elections, tone up police administration, judiciary, eradicate corruption, improve public administration and identify changes required in the Constitution to implement them.

While Yunus’ national vision building is laudable, it is beyond the scope of the mandate of the interim government. Its mandate is limited to restoring public confidence in democratic governance to conduct free and fair parliamentary elections before the first week of November. An elected government will have both the legal mandate and machinery to realise Yunus’ national vision in the long term.

Yunus and his team must get into mission mode and evolve a plan to identify time-based goals and tasks to achieve them. The first task will be to restore law and order so that the administrative machinery can meet the needs of the people to resume their normal life. This process seems to have already started. However, sustaining it will require the creation of a safe environment for people to pursue their normal avocations. This does not exist now.

Prothom Alo, a pro-interim government newspaper, reported that 1,068 houses and businesses owned by Hindus were attacked between August 5 and 20. Some 22 temples were also destroyed. The government should not dismiss them as acts of miscreants, but take strict action to curb such lawless activity by fringe elements of Jamaat and Islamic parties. Yunus’ government needs to walk the talk on this aspect.

Safe Environment

The second task will be to create a safe environment. The police and administrative machinery are alleged to have been weakened by corruption and cronyism during the rule of the Hasina government. It will require identifying and weeding out corrupt elements in the government machinery. Several notable figures have been arrested mostly on charges of corruption, embezzling of public funds and unlawful conduct. These include former infrastructure minister Obaidul Quader, General Secretary of the Awami League; former home minister Asaduzzaman Khan; former IG of Police Shafiqul Islam and former Chief of Army Staff Lt General Aziz Ahmed. Several other people, including around 150 journalists, have been arrested. While these arrests are part of the crackdown on corruption, they should not end as a witch hunt. Otherwise, it will be making a mockery of the rule of law.

Lastly, Bangladesh’s financial crunch. As of July 2024, Bangladesh foreign exchange reserves stood at about $25.8 billion. This is a significant decrease from the peak of $48 billion plus in August 2021. In addition to the global economic downturn, deteriorating trade conditions since June have affected the manufacturing and export sector. In this environment, the government should not waste time in approaching the IMF for a loan as it is a time-consuming process. It is best to leave it to the elected government which will be the legitimate way of handling it.

Instead, the interim government should focus on retaining the existing win-win relationship with India, built during Hasina’s tenure. Both Sri Lanka and Maldives have veered round to the economic wisdom of retaining friendly relations with India.

Bangladesh’s debt, specifically owed to India, is approximately $3.5 billion. This debt is through various lines of credit extended by India for infrastructure development, energy projects and other bilateral cooperation initiatives. Indian private investments in Bangladesh are around $11 billion. This includes around $9 billion in the energy sector with regard to power generation and transmission, around $2 billion for infrastructure, some $500 million for the pharmaceutical sector, $300 million in automobile manufacturing and assembly plants, $200 million in the FMCG sector and some $150 million in the edible oil sector.

These projects provide livelihood for thousands of Bangladeshis. Leave it to the elected government to investigate these investment agreements for corruption. The interim government should not allow political posturing to satisfy wounded egos to take over foreign policy decision making. This is more so when the government is facing a financial crunch. 

As political analyst Fareed Zakaria said: “Foreign policy is a matter of costs and benefits, not theology.”

Yunus’ Cabinet

As chief adviser, Yunus has appointed advisers from a pool of experienced civil servants, retired army officers, academia, legal eagles and civil society activists, including three student activist leaders. Among the 19 advisers, two are women and two are from minority communities. Yunus is in-charge of the cabinet and the armed forces divisions. He is being assisted by three special assistants with hands on experience to manage the portfolios of the two divisions and also maintain liaison with the student bodies. 

• Former Cabinet Secretary Ali Imam Majumder (66) will probably take care of the departments of Food and Civil Administration. His experience as chairman of Bangla Biman, the national airline, should help him in dealing with the civil aviation and tourism departments. He is also a civil society activist, associated with Transparency International Bangladesh since 2016. He is also an executive member of Citizens for Good Governance. Majumder had been a vocal critic of the aberrations in the functioning of Hasina’s government.

• Retired Lt General Abdul Hafiz, former Chief of General Staff, is special assistant to Yunus on matters related to defence and national integrity. During his military career, he attended courses in China and the US. He is a graduate of the Defence Intelligence College of France. He has served as Force Commander of the UN Mission in Western Sahara and Ivory Coast.

• Special Assistant Mohammed Mahfuz Alam is a student activist and coordinator of the Anti-discrimination Students Movement (ADSM) and Non-Cooperation Movement–2024. He will be providing Yunus direct link to the student bodies spearheading the agitation.

—The writer is a retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies