Sri Lanka: Coming to term with new environment

By Col R Hariharan

TNA chief minister for NPC

It would be facile to describe the swearing in of CV Wigneswaran as the chief minister of the Northern Provincial Council (NPC) at the ‘Temple Trees’ in the presence of President Mahinda Rajapaksa on October 7, 2013 as a breakthrough in the troubled relationship between the Sinhala majority and the Tamil minority. Both the communities have many more miles to go before they can forge a new relationship.

After all the pre-election rhetoric, a chief minister of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) – a party described till yesterday as LTTE proxies – swearing by the constitution in the presence of the Sri Lanka President does herald a change. It signals the willingness of both the TNA and the government to evolve a working relationship.  The Sri Lankan military’s action of blowing up one of the final abodes of LTTE leader Prabhakaran on the election-eve may well portend changes more than symbolic. Even otherwise, it is a good beginning that might turn out of be nothing more than that if it is not sustained.

There is no doubt the NPC chief minister has a difficult task of  meeting voters' aspirations within the constricting format of 13the Amendment (13A) ‘Minus.’ And to get some results he has to progress a dialogue with a highly assertive national leadership. Added to this is the opprobrium of TNA being considered as an Indian proxy while trying to live down its unpleasant client relationship with LTTE in the past.

The ‘India proxy’ tag of TNA seems to cloud the thinking of not only key national leaders but even better informed Sri Lankans. A case in point is the editorial description of the well merited TNA electoral victory by the Sunday Times, Colombo, on October 29. It said: “India has eventually got its way by having its proxy now in power and place in the North of Sri Lanka. This was the foothold it had wanted all these years and it is going to be more than a headache for the Mahinda Rajapaksa Government that caved in to concerted pressure from the so-called “international community”.  Was this the sum total of an election held after 25 years? Does it require international pressure for an elected government to “cave in” to conduct its own election?

This is the national environment in which the TNA has to rebuild a win-win relationship with an increasingly ‘authoritarian government’ (description courtesy: Ms Naveneetham Pillai of UNHCR). Given this situation, the NPC and Wigneswaran will need India’s handholding to wade through the complex political quagmire although he has talked of TNA going ahead all by itself.

Indian MEA’s visit

So the maiden visit of Indian Minister for External Affairs Salman Khurshid on October 7 and 8 assumes greater importance than merely meeting with his counterpart to discuss the post-NPC election scene, reviewing progress of India-assisted projects or witnessing the signing of agreements for Indian-aided Sampur thermal power plant.

There was a welcome effort at public diplomacy during the Indian MEA’s visit. In the two public interactions, the MEA spelled out his perceptions on some of the major issues after interacting with his counterpart and the President.

The devolution dialogue and future of 13A

He reiterated India’s call for an early political settlement and national reconciliation through meaningful devolution (italics added) of powers, to ensure all Sri Lankans, including Tamils, lead a life marked by equality, justice, dignity and self-respect. Indian expectation would be the fulfilment of the President’s promise to implement 13A ‘plus.’ The Indian MEA’s diplomatic answer to a pointed question on ‘meaningful devolution,’ indicated he expects the NPC to take it forward in a dialogue process with Colombo with India assuming a smaller profile.  Sri Lankan MEA Prof GL Peiris' intervention on the constitutional process of working out a consensus by a Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC) was interesting.  Of course, a point he ‘forgot’ to mention was that this PSC was largely a ruling party body. In other words there was no change in the stated positions of the two countries on the issue.

However, Indian MEA while speaking at Jaffna was more forthright on 13A. He said: “India is committed to pursuing the full implementation of the 13th Amendment, and building upon it, to achieve a meaningful devolution of powers. Our objective is to enable a lasting political settlement which will ensure that all communities, including the Sri Lankan Tamil community, are able to lead a life marked by equality, justice, dignity and self-respect. In this regard, India will do everything possible to work with the Government of Sri Lanka to take this process forward in a spirit of partnership and cooperation.”

However, he indicated no time frame for completion of this process in his answer during the press interaction. This would indicate the issue would continue to figure as an uncomfortable item on the agenda of India-Sri Lanka relations. A new complication has been added with the Sri Lanka Supreme Court’s recent ruling that provincial councils does not enjoy land powers, as interpreted by India and the Tamil polity. This may trigger a new, tedious legal process adding to the delay.

Fishermen’s issue

According to Indian MEA both sides had agreed that the representatives of fishermen associations of both countries should meet “very quickly” so that whatever governments had put in place in 2008 (based upon Sri Lanka Economic Development Minister Basil Rajapaksa’s October 26, 2008 statement) would be more effectively implemented. Apparently he hoped consultation between fishermen on both sides to fortify or evolve “some other working methods.”

Here also Prof Peiris intervened to remind that this was a livelihood issue of Sri Lankan fishermen, and emphasised the need for “some concrete action” to reduce the numbers of boats and fishermen coming into Sri Lanka’s territorial waters and to prevent large numbers coming into to take away Sri Lanka’s marine resources. Sri Lanka’s stand is likely to be supported by NPC also. Considering this it is not clear how any consensus between the fishermen from both countries can be a substitute for a substantive agreement between both the countries to resolve this issue. Apparently India is hoping to buy time till 2014 till the Indian elections are conducted to reduce any adverse political impact.

CHOGM

It would appear that India had still not made up its mind on the participation of Indian Prime Minister in the CHOGM. Indicating this, the Indian MEA said that he would be participating. In other words, India would not be boycotting the CHOGM although the level of participation was undecided. Perhaps this stand was adopted for the time being as New Delhi awaited for some response from Colombo to meet some of India’s requirements. However, as the issue of Indian PM’s participation is likely to gather political momentum during the second half of the month, we can expect the Indian government to decide on his attendance at the CHOGM only in the last moment.

Conclusion

Despite these loose ends on some of the gut issues, it is clear a new political environment has been created with the ushering in of NPC, dominated by the TNA. And not only the Sri Lanka government and the Tamil polity, but India as well, will have to come terms with this new environment. The apparent willingness of Sri Lanka government and NPC to enter a dialogue is an encouraging sign.   

In an unusually strong and candid editorial the Sunday Times, Colombo, on the eve of Indian MEA’s recent visit to Colombo raised a pertinent question affecting India-Sri Lanka relations:  “There is one thing the visiting Minister might wish to consider; i.e. whether India’s foreign policy Vis-a-Vis Sri Lanka will forever be Tamil Nadu-centric and if that be so, isn’t this alienating the rest of India from good neighbourly relations with Sri Lanka and losing the Sri Lankan people’s natural affinity and goodwill for his country?”

This question needs to be answered by India’s national leadership and not by the MEA. Though it had been confronting the issue for quite some time, it has not addressed it substantively. And it cannot be wished away as an obdurate Sri Lanka President had made the job more difficult for India. Indian leadership will have to find an answer soon as the coalition political situation is getting murkier every day. And that would require some difficult tightrope walking.  

(Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served with the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka as Head of Intelligence. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail: colhari@yahoo.com   Blog: www.colhariharan.org)  

First Things To Do

By Col R. Hariharan |Sunday Leader|September 29, 2013

The massive victory of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), which secured 30 of the 38 seats in the recent Northern Provincial Council (NPC) elections, marks a milestone in the stalled ‘political process’ for greater empowerment for Tamils. As TNA leader R. Sampanthan said it was a mandate for “the framework of a united, undivided country, they want to live in security, safeguarding their self respect and dignity with adequate self-rule, to be able to fulfil their legitimate political, economic, social and cultural aspirations.”

Even those who dispute his statement would agree the election results indicate two things: Tamils were not happy with the government’s post war dispensations that lacked a political content, and they are looking for more autonomy within a united Sri Lanka. In other words, Tamils want to have a say in their governance, development and administration, while retaining their identity.

While noting this development in North, one needs to recognise President Rajapaksa’s thumping victory in the elections for the Central and North Western provincial councils. It shows most of the people approve President Rajapaksa’s policies.

But unlike the elections in the North, the Tamil autonomy was not an electoral issue in these provinces. They had not undergone the traumatic experience of 25 years of separatist insurgency in the North that cost at least 80,000 lives. It is unfortunate that Sinhala right wing sees the democratic rise of the TNA in the NPC as a red rag to Sri Lanka’s existence.

And they point to the resurgence of Tamil Diaspora organisations like the Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam (TGTE) which still talk of creating an independent Tamil Eelam, because many leaders of TNA in the past shared the same sentiments. And TNA was a political ally of the LTTE.

The choice of C. V. Wigneswaran, a non-political personality for heading the NPC, and his clear statement that they would not allow external influences in their working, should dispel this. But fears of separatism groomed with blood and gore are not going to vanish unless TNA makes a difference on how it conducts itself. Otherwise, it will mean going back to ethno-centric politics that had been the bane of this country. I am sure this is the last thing people of Sri Lanka want regardless of their creed.

Sri Lankans have wasted a number of productive years looking at the past rather than at the future. TNA despite disarray in its rank and file due to the war, went to the elections with a manifesto, not a secret agenda. Despite its lengthy preamble in essence it wanted, not an independent Tamil Eelam, but greater autonomy for Tamils within the existing framework of united Sri Lanka.

After the electoral success many top TNA leaders reaffirmed this. The liberal democratic elements across the country understand this; but the ordinary citizen is apprehensive. President Rajapaksa’s policy making has largely been conditioned by popular perceptions. And TNA has to recognise this and redesign its act to suit this environment. To start with, its leaders can do a few things easily: allow Prabhakaran to rest in peace and not deify him; equally important is not to give snide hints of separatism.

The government on its part should recognize the peoples’ verdict in the North and take immediate and visible measures to show it is mindful of their concerns. This requires only administrative orders, not parliamentary approval.

The first thing is to replace the existing governors of northern and eastern provinces with eminent civilians preferably belonging to the minority community. Let the army reduce its intrusive presence in the normal lives of people and carry out professional training. Rein in and defang paramilitary thugs accustomed to beat up the opposition and media persons. Prevent provocative acts of religious extremists. Restore confidence in the rule of law to show there is government that is concerned.

Of course, there are two other issues that affect them – the large number of people missing after the war and the bleak future of huge number of war widows and destitutes. These are time-consuming humanitarian issues which probably require case by case approach. These can be taken up by the NPC government for processing with the concerned bodies in Colombo. If NPC acts and Colombo is sincere and receptive these are not big issues.

As the electoral success has increased the legitimacy of TNA, the President cannot ignore the issue of 13A with glib talk. Actually President Rajapaksa and C. V. Wigneswaran as the chief minister of NPC, now have no choice but to confront the issue. As they are accustomed to do it from different planes, they have to build a working equation. This is going to be a tricky problem. Management by objectives (MBO) is an effective management tool used to handle this kind of situation – immovable object meeting the irresistible force.

To put MBO into action, Rajapaksa and Wigneswaran will have to sit and identify clear cut objectives to be achieved within a given time frame. To reach that stage both sides will have to take some of confidence building measures to remove suspicions and foster trust.  Of course, honesty of purpose is fundamental to this.

And I am sure, if political consideration is not the sole driver, both sides would not be wanting on this count. One can hear sniggers at these suggestions in coffee shops in Colombo or Jaffna where politicos and ‘intellectuals’ palaver. It is best to ignore them because leadership is to face challenges and not be swayed by doomsday men.  And people want action from leaders not comments from cynics.

[Col R Hariharan is a retired MI officer who served as head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka.]

Written on September 25, 2013

URL: http://www.thesundayleader.lk/2013/09/29/first-things-to-do/

Is Army entering politics?

Col R Hariharan

[This article includes comments made by the author in a panel discussion titled “Is the army entering politics?” in a TV news channel on September 24, 2013. Other two panelists belonged to the Congress and BJP parties.]

The sensational title of the discussion “Is Army entering politics?” is an insinuation on army – a national institution which has earned its reputation for professionalism after shedding blood and sweat in battlefronts. A more appropriate title would be “Is politics entering Army?” There is every reason to think so, as we see a series of classified official documents containing sensational allegations relating to former Army chief General VK Singh, the army, and national security have been systematically leaked to the media since 2012.  

The latest controversy has been triggered by an Indian Express report on September 20, 2013 carrying shocking revelations of General VK Singh misusing the Technical Support Division (TSD) to unlawfully tap phones of ministers and to pull down the J and K government. It quoted a Secret report of an inquiry ordered by the Army chief General Bikram Singh to review the functioning of the TSD during the tenure of his predecessor. The report prepared by Director General (Military Operations) Lt General Vinod Bhatia is said to have recommended a probe by an external agency like the CBI. It was submitted to Defence Ministry in March 2013.

However, the Ministry has sat on it for six months which shows either lack of seriousness of purpose or frivolousness of the allegations. After the media report raised a lot of noise, the government has promised an inquiry to bring the guilty to book. 

Curiously the latest Indian Express allegation against General VK Singh appeared immediately after he was seen on the stage alongside the Congress bête-noire Narendra Modi when they addressed a massive ex-servicemen’s rally at Rewari in Haryana. This was not the first time such informed leaks in the media were timed to coincide with some of General VK Singh’s revelations or acts that reflected badly on the government. For instance when his case against the Government on correcting his date of birth came up for hearing, the same newspaper made a laughable but a mischievous and alarming allegation by interpreting routine move of some military unit to Delhi as a plan of the General to carry out a coup! Though such leaks and reports were targeted against him, they have also dragged Army’s name in the mud. And the stoic silence of the Minister of Defence and the army has only fed the rumour mills.  

General VK Singh has not helped himself in rebutting such reports. In his TV interview on September 23 on the latest Indian Express report, he made a rather sweeping statement that the Army had paid all ministers in J and K since independence, and that everyone in the system, including the Defence Ministry was in the know. This has not only sustained the controversy but also kept it in public focus. As a person who has held the high office of the COAS people expect him to be more circumspect in his public statements. But apparently his views are different. Probably as an aggrieved party he feels he has to counter the allegations through the same media that carry them. A little more homework on his part would have helped him to project better.

From the national security point of view this is a disturbing development as it undermines public confidence in armed forces at time when Jihadi terrorism is trying to stage a comeback in J and K. It is a mystery why the Government of India does not appear to have made serious efforts to either plug the leakages or bring the culprits to book. In the case in point, the government took no action for six months after the report was submitted; this gives rise to suspicions of official patronage for the whole exercise at some senior level.

The credibility of the government can only be restored by carrying out an impartial enquiry into the whole affair and the guilty are brought to book. However, credibility in such inquiries has been eroded as controversies have been dogging national investigative agencies. In view of this, the enquiry should be conducted under the supervision of the Supreme Court and expeditious action taken on its recommendations.  

Over the years partisan politics has eroded effectiveness of administration.  Police forces have been rendered ineffective and national institutions like the Intelligence Bureau, Central Bureau of Investigation which are the pillars of good governance and security have been systematically degraded. Now the armed forces, the symbol of national integration and unimpeachable integrity, appear to be facing the same fate. This has saddened over two million veterans; it is likely to adversely impact the minds of soldiers defending our troubled borders. 

[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI officer, is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-mail: colhari@yahoo.com Blog: www.colhariharan.org]

Sri Lanka: First take on Northern Provincial Council elections

Col R Hariharan

About 78.5 percent of 4.25 lakh people of Northern Province who voted in the Provincial Council elections on September 21, 2013 have given the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) a thumping victory. The TNA won 30 seats including 2 bonus seats in the 38-member council while the ruling United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) secured 7 seats and the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) won 1 seat.

The results were not unexpected; but the large voter turnout of 67.5 percent evidently boosted the TNA figures. TNA’s performance point to the broad acceptance of its reading of political aspirations reflected in its manifesto.

The TNA went into the election after some introspection with its Diaspora patrons and Tamil intellectuals.This resulted in TNA naming an apolitical personality - retired Sri Lanka Supreme Court judge CV Wigneswaran - as its chief ministerial candidate. This prevented TNA from dissipating its energies in a leadership struggle between the three major parties that dominate the five-member conglomerate.

Justice Wigneswaran enjoyed excellent national reputation as a jurist and did not belong to any party. Any doubts about his belief in the Tamil Cause vanished after he delivered the Thanthai Chelvanayagam Lecture “Whither Sri Lankan Tamils” at Colombo on April 25, 2013. The rhetoric and the nuance of speech appealed to most of the Tamils, despite some unorthodox views. Undoubtedly, choice of Wigneswaran helped the TNA’s to broaden its support base as he was apolitical and belonged to no special interest group. Probably this persuaded large number of voters to support TNA after their energies have been sapped by two and a half decades of war.

He also fitted in the TNA bid to project a new image distancing itself from its tainted political association with Prabhakaran while retaining the idiom of ‘Tamil Nation’ at its core. This desire has made the manifesto more a vision statement than a mission statement listing specific objectives of the Party.

For instance, it reaffirmed the Tamils right of self determination and the desire to find a solution to satisfy the Tamil aspirations within a federal structure as stated in Oslo Communiqué.  TNA failed to pursue this objective when it meekly bowed down to Prabhakaran and allowed him to be the sole arbiter of Tamils in the peace process with disastrous results. To resuscitate this objective in the present context of Sri Lanka is going to be an uphill task because much water has flown in Kelaniya River since then. The reality is the LTTE has been eliminated as an extra constitutional rider on finding a solution to the Tamil issue. President Rajapaksa has been elected twice after disowning the federal solution and wishing away the existence of any ethnic problem in Sri Lanka. Tamils have been reduced to play their weakest political wicket now. And last but not the least, there is a government “showing signs of heading in an increasingly authoritarian direction,”(to quote UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Mrs Naveneetham Pillay at the end of her recent visit to Sri Lanka).

Now TNA in office in NPC has no choice but to build an equation with Colombo to fulfil the expectations it has kindled among the people.  This is going to be a trying task for the TNA as a whole and the chief minister in particular. lf there is anyone who can undertake the task of striking an equation with an intransigent government, it is probably the chief minister designate Wigneswaran. As a Tamil judge at the highest court of the nation he had walked the tight-rope through the trying period of ethnic conflict. Though he is a non-political personality he has the acumen and ability to take informed decisions while dealing with the government.

Fortunately, he appears to have more confidence in finding home grown solution (Rajapaksa’s much maligned usage) without external intervention than other TNA leaders.  Already he has shown signs of keeping an open mind on issues like participation in the CHOGM (Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting) being hosted by Sri Lanka. He will also be facing a challenging task ahead as he has to carry the disparate and divided TNA polity with their own agendas to tackle a scheming UPFA out to pull the rug from under his feet at the first opportunity.  if Wigneswaran has to arrive at a working relationship with Colombo, it is essential for TNA to shed the ghost of Prabhakaran driving from the backseat throwing broad hints at separatism.

On the other hand, the election results have also showed the total rejection of President Rajapaksa’s strategy of using development needs as an alternative to fulfilling political aspirations. He could have helped the UPFA put up a better show at the polls, if only he had adopted in an inclusive approach in the development process to involve the people in the traumatic years after the end of Eeelam War. But it seems that is not his style not only in respect of Northern Province but also other provinces.  For others it may not matter; but the voting has shown that UPFA has not endeared itself to the people of Northern Province. After losing their kith and kin, livelihood and habitat in the humanitarian warm they have to be satisfied with a retired General sitting as a Governor and arbiter of their fate with a sizeable army breathing down their neck in their daily life even four years after the war. This is no advertisement for the UPFA.

President Rajapaksa’s post war strategy had always been a mystery. As Dr Dayan Jayatilleka wrote if only he had held the Provincial Council elections say immediately after the war, he could have given form and content to his claim of waging a war of freedom.  Politically it would have made sense as TNA was in disarray and the UPFA had an opportunity to make a real difference to the people. Evidently, he decided to sacrifice the advantage to get a huge majority in parliament and get elected for a second term.

Even as the election results were streaming in President Rajapaksa was off to New York to attend the UN General Assembly. He can now confidently face the audience to point to the successful conduct of elections in the Northern Province, as promised. In a way he is correct, by and large the election was conducted peacefully in spite of the invisible dirty tricks department’s clumsy attempts at confusing the voters and sporadic cases of intimidation of voters and a reported case of opening fire at a van carrying voters.  One can only hope Rajapaksa takes note of the thumping chit people have given to TNA and facilitates building a working relation with Chief Minister Wigneswaran.  

And one can only hope Wigneswaran’s troubles as chief minister are not beginning. He needs every ones good wishes to succeed in his thankless task of getting the job done.  And that includes not only his electors, but also TNA leaders and the government of President Rajapaksa.

(Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served with the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka as Head of Intelligence. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail: colhari@yahoo.com   Blog: www.colhariharan.org)