Col R Hariharan
After President Mahinda
Rajapaksa and his surprise challenger Maithripala Sirisena, General Secretary
of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), who quit his office as Minister, filed
their nominations for the Presidential election on January 8, 2015 the contest
has become exciting.
Maithripala’s move came
as a boon to the opposition parties who were struggling to find a common
strategy to stop the Rajapaksa juggernaut rolling for a third term in office.
The opposition United National Party (UNP) and a few other SLFP leaders
and Bandaranaike family
loyalists led by former
President Mrs Chandrika Kumaratunga quickly got together to name Sirisena (full name: Palle Watte Gamaralalage
Maithreepala Yapa Sirisena) as the common opposition candidate of the National
Democratic Front.
Undoubtedly, Sirisena’s
“betrayal” has queered Rajapaksa’s calculated strategy to get elected for a
third term as President. Ever since he got reelected as President in 2009 he
made his move with an eye on a third term. First he gained two thirds majority
the United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) coalition in Parliament in the 2010
election. He managed to get the constitution amended to lift the restriction on
holding the office of the president for more than two terms. He also managed to
enlarge the Executive President’s powers to appoint the head of judiciary and
the election commissioner by getting the constitution amended.
While this was as
planned, his popularity rapidly declined after the Rajapaksa family firmly
ensconced itself in positions of power to control finances and dispense
favours. The Party took a backseat, leading to widespread corruption,
lawlessness and cronyism. Opposition and critical media were hounded and
xenophobia nurtured. To cut down his losses the President advanced the
presidential election by two years.
All of sudden Rajapaksa
finds Sirisena, the long-term party loyalist turned “renegade,” is threatening
to derail the Rajapaksa gravy train. He has gathered not only the support
within the Party but also managed
to get the support of the UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and the Democratic
Party (DP) Leader Sarath Fonseka, subsuming their personal ambitions.
With “defeat Rajapaksa” becoming the political flavour of
the day, the right wing Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) parted company with the
UPFA, its long term ally and signed a MoU with Sirisena to affirm its
solidarity.
Sirisena’s allies are no models of clean political conduct. Sirisena’s agenda evolved with them for his campaign
include the abolition of executive presidency “within 100 days of his election
as President and Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister”, reintroduction of the
17th amendment and abolition of the 18th amendment to the
Constitution that has enabled Rajapaksa to seek more than two terms, cleaning
up government corruption and full implementation of LLRC recommendations as
suggested by the UN Human Rights Commission.
Caught off guard, the
President in his initial reaction
held a veiled threat to the defectors. He thundered “I have
their files and documents which will be very detrimental to their well being. I
will not use them against those who had left betraying the party, but I warn
them not to throw stones from inside glass houses.” Though later he toned down
his remark, it seemed to have worked with many potential defectors of the SLFP
lying low for the time being.
The President, after deliberating with his cabinet and
advisors, seems to have evolved his tactics to handle Sirisena. Talking to
media editors at a breakfast meeting Rajapaksa identified former
President Chandrika Kumaratunga as “the main contender in the race” and she was
“using Maithripala Sirisena.” This
was to trivialize Sirisena’s challenge by attributing it to Mrs Kumaratunga’s
machinations and not to the shortcomings of his rule.
More devious was Rajapaksa’s
tongue in cheek remark at the editor’s meeting that Ranil Wickremesinghe was
“the best candidate out of the three because only he has a party machinery.”
This was probably made to sow doubts among some of the UNP leaders locked in
internal squabble to dissipate the UNP support to Sirisena.
‘Foreign conspiracy’ to
destabilise Sri Lanka is a perennial ploy in Rajapaksa’s political strategy to
whip up nationalist sentiments. This time also the UNP has become the target of
such allegations by UPFA leaders. Resettlement Minister Gunaratne Weerakoon alleged
the outgoing US ambassador Michaele Cison offered him a green card and a house
in the US to induce him to defect from the government.
Another well worn Sri Lanka
political strategy is to induce defection of leaders on the eve of elections.
Both sides have adopted it. Rajapaksa has the money and muscle power and the
instrument of government to do a better job of it. In spite of this, not only
Sirisena but a few other ministers have quit their office to join the
opposition ranks. One of them, Minister Navin Dissanayake, son of the late popular UNP leader Gamini Dissanayake, who crossed over to the opposition said he was offered Rs
10 million to stay in the SLFP.
But Rajapsa is a past-master in
the defection game. So it was not surprising to see some prominent political
personalities - UNP General Secretary Tissa Attanayake cutting his two decades
of association with UNP and the JHU Deputy General Secretary Udaya Gammanpila -
to cross over to Rajapaksa’s ranks.
Sirisena would need the whole
hearted support of traditional UNP voters if he has to put up a strong fight
which is not going to be an easy exercise if we go by the experience of Sarath
Fonseka, the common opposition candidate in the last presidential election. The
UNP leaders would need to work hard to ensure its loyal votes go in favour of
Sirisena.
In addition, Sirisena needs to
charm the fence-sitting opposition parties like the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna
(JVP), Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and the reluctant Tamil National
Alliance (TNA).
Though the JVP is keen on
defeating Rajapaksa and abolishing executive presidency abolished, it has not
shown keenness in supporting Sirisena. So Sirisena may not be to get most of
the JVP votes.
The TNA have a track record of getting most of the Tamil
votes. Their support is important in any close contest. TNA still retains the
strength to persuade Tamils to vote for Sirisena. But the TNA is still
undecided on its stand. In a Daily Mirror report TNA leader Suresh
Premachandran has articulated the dilemma saying:“There is no solution offered
to the problems of the Tamil people. There is no plan to resettle displaced
Tamils. It seems that the common candidate is endorsing the views of Sinhala
extremist forces backing him. Let alone a political solution, there is no
approach even to address day to day problems.” But Sirisena probably
offers a better option as has promised to clip the wings of executive president
to make him more accountable and the TNA may veer round to support
him.
Muslim parties as usual are
split in their support to Rajapaksa. The decision of Minister Bathiuddin’s
Muslim Congress to support Rajapaksa was not unexpected. The SLMC, which
commands more Muslim votes, had been peeved with Rajapaksa over his inaction to
curb the Bodhu Bala Sena (BBS)’s violent hate-Muslim campaign that resulted in
loss of lives and property. The SLMC parted with the UPFA on the same issue.
This would make the SLMC uncomfortable to go with Sirisena particularly after
he signed the MoU with JHU as it had been providing political support to the
BBS’s anti-Muslim campaign.
With such a line up of support,
can Sirisena defeat President Rajapaksa? If we go by the upbeat mood in the
opposition ranks it would seem so. Sirisena, with his comparatively clean image
(unlike Rajapaksas) and established party credentials, does have chance to win
if he can swing at least 15 percent of SLFP loyalist votes in his favour. And
that might not be enough unless Sirisena can make a dent in the strong South
Sinhala support for Rajapaksa.
Despite all the complaints of
misrule and corruption against Rajapaksa, can Sirisena a comparatively less
known figure, compete with Rajapaksa hailed as a national hero for defeating
the LTTE and eliminating Prabhakaran? That is the moot question.
The bottom line is the
opposition cannot afford to underestimate Rajapaksa’s strengths.
Moreover, the politically savvier Rajapaksa has been
preparing for the election well in advance. In the Budget for 2015 a hefty hike for all government servants and freebies
including heavily subsidised offer of motorcycles to government field staff
have been announced. Similarly interest rates for senior citizens’ deposits
have been hiked to 12 percent.
The government’s allocation of Rs 450
million to each of the select parliamentarians (including to those who cross
over from the opposition) as development fund to fund over 150 special
development projects is yet another instance of how government funds are ‘used’
to garner support for Rajapaksa.
Rajapaksa dirty tricks
department is already in action. There are reports of misuse of government
machinery to support the President. A number of complaints against the ruling
coalition for attacking opposition candidates and leaders have been reported.
For instance Western Provincial
Council SLFP member Hirunika Premachandra fled the country with her mother
after she received threats to her life after she decided to back Sirisena. Of
course, she is back now to campaign for him.
One redeeming feature is India, the favourite whipping boy
always accused of meddling in Sri Lankan elections, seems to have taken a
backseat. Probably China will replace it soon as scams involving the Chinese
are surfacing now. But the Chinese are clever, they never dirty their hands in
politics; they prefer to use money.
There is yet another important factor in Sri Lanka politics
– astrology. President can probably relax as his astrologer seems to have
predicted that he would be re-elected for the third time and a fourth time as
well! We don’t know what Sirisena’s birth chart says; I suppose January 8 will
decide his future regardless of his astral predictions.
(Col R Hariharan, a retired Military
Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served with the Indian Peace Keeping
Force in Sri Lanka as Head of Intelligence. He is associated with the Chennai
Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail: colhari@yahoo.com Blog:
http://col.hariharan.info)
Courtesy:
South Asia Analysis Group Paper No 5843 dated December 16, 2014
