By Col R Hariharan | India Legal, Magazine, Special | May 18,
2024
https://www.indialegallive.com/magazine/maldivces-india-mohamed-muizzu-military-personnel-china/
Many Indians
probably see Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu as putting on a Dr Jekyll and Mr
Hyde act when he deals with India after winning the presidential election using
the anti-India rhetoric. Using the same rhetoric, he won a thumping majority in
the recently held parliamentary election too.
Muizzu’s Dr
Jekyll act was prominent in his first speech as president, when he called for
“foreign troops” to quit by the March 15 deadline. The only foreign troops
present in the island-nation were 80-plus Indian support staff, who manned the
surveillance and casualty evacuation aircraft—two helicopters and a Dornier
aircraft—gifted by India. He held in abeyance all agreements with India and
cancelled the pact for carrying out hydrographic survey.
His act continued when he opted to make his first state visit to China rather
than the traditional visit to New Delhi. He described China as Maldives
“closest development partner” and committed to implement the stalled Free Trade
Agreement with it. The signing of the Maldives-China “comprehensive strategic
cooperative partnership” agreement led to the signing of 20 agreements. They
involve China in virtually every sphere of activity in Maldives. Weeks later,
the two countries went on to sign a military pact that could lead to free
military supplies from China.
Despite cash crunch, President Muizzu procured Bayratkar TB2 unmanned aerial
vehicles (UAV) costing around $37 million from Turkiye to inaugurate the
Maldivian National Defence Force (MNDF) Air Corps for carrying out surveillance
of its waters. The whole exercise was probably to show that Maldives was not
dependent on India for surveillance of Maldives Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
More damaging
was the Maldives agreement with China allowing free access to the Chinese
“research vessel” Xiang Yang Hong 3 despite strategic concerns expressed by
both India and the US over the spy ship’s activity in the Indo-Pacific.
According to media reports, the Chinese vessel began its journey to Maldives a
day after Muizzu concluded his trip to China. It arrived in the vicinity of
Maldives 15 days later, and docked in Male on February 22. It headed to the
boundary of the Maldives EEZ, and returned a month later to dock in Thilafushi
harbour on April 25. Maldives authorities claim they have not been informed of
its activities during this period.
Apparently, Muizzu’s stance to curb Indian influence paid off politically when
his People’s National Congress won 66 of 93 seats in parliament. The coalition
partners, Maldives National Party (MNP) and Maldives Development Alliance
(MDA), won one and two seats respectively. The Jumhooree party won one seat.
Former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s pro-India Maldivian Democratic Party
(MSP) took a heavy drubbing, winning only 12 seats. The rest of the 11 seats
were won by independents.
But that will be
trivialising the influence of local issues, particularly housing, healthcare
and communication affecting the voters. In his inaugural address, Muizzu had
promised to overcome the country’s debt burden, complete the Velana mega
project expansion to generate revenue and overcome the housing shortage. In the
run up to the parliamentary poll, he promised construction of 1,000 housing
units in B. Eydhafushi, identified as one of the urban centres. After the
election, the government signed a contract for the construction of the housing
units with China’s Sinohydro Corporation.
Similarly, Muizzu’s emphasis on Maldivian identity and language and assertion
of the island-nation’s strategic importance in Indian Ocean security also
probably created a positive impact in his favour.
However, when
mounting debts confronted Muizzu at home, Mr Hyde seems to have taken over. In
Muizzu’s first ever interview to the local media in March, he emphasised that
he had not taken any action nor made any statement that may strain Maldives’
relations with India. He “fervently” hoped that India would accommodate debt
relief measures for the loans successive governments in Maldives had taken from
India. Maldives continued to discuss debt relief measures with India.
Maldives’
Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer made his first high-level visit to New Delhi on
May 9 to meet External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. Terming India as a
“development partner in the Maldives”, Zameer confirmed that debt relief was
part of the talks. He further confirmed that Indian tourists to Maldives had
“tremendously decreased”. He also probably wanted to ensure that India conforms
to the May 10 deadline for all Indian troops to quit Maldives.
Apparently, Zameer’s trip was successful. The Indian High Commission in Male in
a statement on May 14 said the Indian government had provided budget support to
the Maldives in the form of a rollover of the $50 million Treasury Bill for an
additional year. India’s action was at the request of Zameer.
India’s bailout
action took further traction after the International Monetary Fund cautioned
Maldives about “debt distress” due to heavy borrowing from China. Maldives
foreign debt reached $4.038 billion in 2023, approximately 118% of its GDP.
China’s Export Import Bank owns 25.2% of its external debt. The IMF advised the
government to take urgent measures, including revenue increase, spending cuts
and reduce external borrowings to avert an economic crisis.
It will be
interesting to see how President Muizzu handles the economic challenge.
Maldives had a trade deficit of $ 243.80 million in March 2024; it will have to
curb imports. Remittances in Maldives increased to a record $613.80 million in
2023 from $564.60 million in 2022. Action will have to be taken to increase it
further this year.
Obviously, China
will be playing a big part in rescheduling Maldives’ debts. If we go by Sri
Lanka’s experience, China is a Shylock as far as international debts are
concerned. Muizzu will be truly tested in handling the Chinese on this count.
The president will have to defer his ambitious plans to procure more drones to
expand the MNDF Air Corps. And probably scale down some of the mega
construction projects on the anvil.
According to its
tourism ministry, tourist arrivals totalling 8,22,723 as on May 11 showed an
increase of 11.9% compared to the same period last year. However, Indian
tourists who had topped the list last year seem to have downgraded Maldives in
their travel plans after some Maldivians took to social media to do
India-bashing. Some deft re-packaging of with add-ons will be needed to get the
Indian tourist back.
China may not
consider India as the main factor in the Indo-Pacific region, though for India
it is. President Xi Jinping is on an international power projection mode. Xi is
on a quest for a New World Order where it will occupy the main stage. Maldives
is astride the international shipping route of the Indian Ocean, with 15 ships
passing through its channel every minute. This is one reason why China is
wooing Maldives as it is important for domination of Indian Ocean security.
Maldives is also important in the overall security of the Indo-Pacific, with
the US base Diego Garcia, located 700 km from it. And of course, it is too
close to Indian territory and the west coast.
With Muizzu
walking the economic tight rope, India can expect more calls for “emergency
assistance” from him as it happened in Sri Lanka. By deferring the repayment of
the $50 million treasury bill of Maldives for one more year, India is showing
it is a friend and not a master of Maldives, its Indian Ocean neighbour. But
India must remember China is a preferred defence partner of Maldives and its
fragile ecosystem. So probably India needs to lay down some red lines for
Maldives to observe. I presume India’s adroit external affairs minister may
already have laid down this to his Maldivian counterpart. If not, no time should
be lost.
